doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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There is virtually no outflow in the west or southwest portions of the system, and the upper shear is attacking successfully the NW portion too! Outflow from the NE and SE seems good. the shear is continuing through the current time and it looks as if it is present over the Florida peninsula which is NW and in the current direction of the storm...It will take slow forward motion, warm water and no shear to regenerate. I don't think it will ever be as big as it was, the weather on the west side is dissapating. But the central core could support some intensification if the shear lessens
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doug
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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GlasserinD, my response to you is that posting attacks like that will ruin the opportunity for unregistered users to post in the future, why don't you try taking on the responsibility that meteorologists have in this type of a situation. If it wasn't for meteorologists you would not know as much about this Hurricane as you know right now. So maybe you ought to be thankful. 
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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To Jason and the many other informative and dedicated experts and hobbiests on this board... Your knowledge and contributions are greatly appreciated. I am an earth science teacher in St Lucie County (Ft Pierce) and live in Vero Beach. I have used the explantions and predictions from this site both as a teaching tool in my classroom and to educate myself and my family. Everywhere on this site there are cautions about the nature of the content here (i.e. not official). Most of us are here seeking greater detail, more discussions, and updated info that often preceeds the official releases. And as Mike could probably tell you, this site is heavily visited and enjoyed, probably by thousands who never post a thing. This one detractor is simply does not comprehend the value of the amazing knowledge and resources contained in this website and forum. Sincere thanks to all who have contributed during this busy, crazy week.
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Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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where are you seeing the pressure drops at? The latest shown is 960, which is up from the 959 at 11am
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Shear map for someone that asked for it on the last page
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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looks like the shear is still pretty strong out of the west
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Lakeland Gal
Unregistered
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At 11pm last night, Stewart wrote that there was disruption in the storm due to upper-level wind shears which were expected to abate within 24-26 hours. Since they have put the landfall at 10:00pm Saturday night, that gives it almost a full 24 hours without wind shear + moving over the warm waters of the Gulstream, I don't think is "dying' by any means. Then, add in what the Melbourne NWS just issued, and the picture gets a little bit clearer. I'm just not all that confident that things are going to pan out exactly the way it looks right now. The track has shifted so many times to the left and right...mostly based on incorrect models, wobbles to the left and right plus actual weather that IS affecting it.
I think we will see more shifts + different wind intensities over the next 24 hours and as the has said many, many times--there is no exact path/place they can pin down as to landfall.
Let me make this clear: the above statements are not things I WANT to happen, since I am in the path of this storm. So I am not "wishcasting" or playing "doom and gloom" games. I am only posting my very humble opinions as to what I have seen happen over the last 5 years..er, days. This storm is driving everyone nuts.
Keep safe, and keep alert. As for the poster who stirred up the pot earlier, I would not wast anytime responding to him as we are trying to minimize downtimes so that us "so-called amatuers" can get actual and factual information out. He doesn't deserve any responses. As hard as it is, let it go and try your best to stay on topic...and he is NOT a topic. 
btw...this is Colleen...for some reason I cannot log on, no big deal, but I just wanted to let you know who I am.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Evidence of the continued active shear that is destroying the west side of the storm is best seen on the FLOATER IR ch2. There you will see very rapid, almost dart like wisps streaking NNE over the western edges of the clouds from .
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doug
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Kal
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 50
Loc: Space Coast
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GlasserinD - I suppose that news anchors should be faulted for not yet knowing the results of next November's elections, and sportscastors flogged for not providing us with next January's SuperBowl score.
I for one value this forum. It offers me (an amateur) the chance to interact with pros, and I've learned a lot just by lurking here for the last three years. The mods and members are a great bunch of folks, and I say keep up the good work.
With all due respect GlasserinD, I suggest that you stick to official updates if our simple discussions stress you out that much.
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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This storm is wearing me out and I'm not even in the path of it. I can't imagine what it must be doing to all of you in Florida. I still see a NW motion with definite building of storms around the center. Still looks to be some shearing but the west and southwest sides of the storm appear to be coming back some. IMO, if she is trying to restore some of her strength it is happening at a slow pace at this time.
ShawnS
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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IMO Her appearence on Visible satellite is looking better, I think we can all agree she is huge in size. I just heard recon. reported a pressure of 957, thats a 2mb drop and one of the islands recorded a pressure of 958mb, so I think she might have leveled off a bit. Also looking at the Satellite there doesnt appear to be as much shear undercutting the storm as was obvious yesterday. Basically Im gonna give her a shot at some re-intesification once the shear totally relaxes which should occur in 12 -18 hours. Also, for the people saying dry air is the problem, she has been in a dry enviroment her whole life, so I doubt that was the problem. Im gonna go with a Cat 3 maybe borderline Cat 4 at landfall. Just heard Nassau reported a wind gust of 87 MPH and their located quite a ways from the center. So this isnt a localized wind event by any means. My gut though is when she finally makes landfall, this will be more of a rain, battering waves, surge, and erosion problem with massive flooding possible much like Opal. For awhile I thought this was gonna be a wind machine but not so much now. But of course wind damage will still occur just not Extreme damage, I'll say Moderate to maybe Extensive. Well I need to go rest, I've been sick the last 2 days (No Im not just skipping school due to the storm! ) sure aint makin me feel better.
Last thing, look west and see what other fun things we'll getta track as soon as is done for. So much for the slow season. Also, here in Pensacola, waiting to see how much rain and wind I can get from , as it will be my first time I've ever been directly effected by a hurricane YAY. Anyways stay safe and I hope everyone gets off the highways before she hits. Cheers
Look WEST? Is there something brewing in the GOM?
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 03 2004 05:44 PM)
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Unregisterd User
Unregistered
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Does anyone know where abouts this storm will be when it passes over central florida? One track I saw took it well south of my house(southern seminole county) while another took it much closer. The eye of passed pretty much right over us and another direct hit, even cat one, will do some damage.
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Rabbit, earlier you stated that the max flight winds found recently were 105mph--they were actually 105kts (121 mph). Earlier today they were finding max flight level winds around 98kts.
Also, this was in the NW quadrant of the storm, where the newest intense convection is firing. I think some of the dry air that entrained into the system is acting like bad gas, causing the storm's convection to sputter and burst for now.
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Lakeland Gal
Unregistered
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Here is what the has to say about , and it's straight from the horse's mouth. Take it however you want it.
Quote:
IN ADDITION...SOME UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING SOME SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN. THIS MEANS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 100 KNOTS. HOWEVER...FRANCES IS STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. THERE IS PLENTY
OF TIME...ABOUT 36 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...FOR CHANGES IN THE INNER STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE TO OCCUR...WHILE THE HURRICANE MOVES
OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO RE-INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
CALLS FOR A 100-KNOT HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.
So, you see....even the has posted what some of us here think *could* ..but hopefully WON'T happen.
Colleen
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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first off, as to my 105, I just checked it again, and it was in knots...
This storm is bringing to mind storms such as Opal, Bonnie, and Isabel--all were very intense hurricanes; all entrained dry air before landfall, and Isabel and Bonnie both stalled and underwent wind shear which disrupted the circulation, and none of these storms recovered:
Opal was 160, hit at 125
Bonnie was 120, hit at 100
Isabel was 160, hit at 105
I am not saying strengthening is impossible (nothing really seems impossible this year after last month), but it is very unlikely that will strengthen much before landfall, especially back to 140; and it is still possible that it could weaken
my forecast: 105-110 mph between West Palm Beach and Daytona Beach
also, to all of you that are not registered, why not? if you make a mistake, you can fix it (ive made tons of typing mistakes ive had to correct)
(side note: does anyone else find it odd that there is West Palm Beach on the East Coast?)
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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even though they aren't big islands how much affect would they have on weaking?
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schmoo
Unregistered
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Hi All,
Just curious why Rickonbat would say this will head west and enter the GOM. Is tehre anything going on that could possibly cause this?
Thanks for all the great work
That's because you dont know rick...and that's why I constantly ask him not to keep posting cat V headed for Mobile predictions on every storm...newbies might take it to heart and genuinely believe it.
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 03 2004 05:48 PM)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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12:20pm ET - Afternoon everybody - We're all wondering the same thing we see; will re-strengthen? I am not a professional meteorologist. I was a weather forecaster with the Air Force and I am now working on my degree in meteorology; that said, I've noted some professional meteorologist in this forum and they need to be heard (read). There are and will continue to be diverse points of view, but the boys & girls that bury their noses in these models and there are a few know their craft well. Let's move on: The topic is will this baby regain Category 4? It may. The best way to speak to this is a scorecard - 1) Will it restrengthen? - Gulf stream checks in at 30 to 31C (86 to 88F), shear tendency has decreased by 5 knots, and she continues to have excellent outflow except on the west side, will remain over water at least another 36 hours. 2) Weakening - 300mb shear remains between 15 & 20 knots directly over the system, with upper ridge axis to her SW, inner eye has become disrupted, dry air intrusion is noted on current water vapor imagery as of 1615Z impinging on the on her west and southwest side, some land interaction, slow movement which tends to cool sea surfaces. Category 4? Possible, given how much time we're looking at prior to landfall, we all remember , but the structure of is different now. Category 3? Likely, if she reconsolidates and an eye is re-established prior to landfall. Category 2? 100 knots is nothing to sneeze out, and if the core can't recover, you're looking at a wind field that will continue to expand and what could be sustained hurricane force winds north of the eye for in excess of 24 hours; no picnic if you live on the beach. As for ; he's a long way off, and too many variables to even guess where he's going, but he is on the southern track and a ridge is along for the ride with him. Beyond 5 days it will depend on where that shortwave trough is, and it's longwave cousin. If the shortwave bypasses the system, say hello to Gulf of Mexico; but that's at least 7 days out and there are no models that reliable beyond 5. Next week is the peak of the hurricane season climatologically.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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Lakeland Gal
Unregistered
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Yes, the visibles are looking much better...maybe, as someone pointed out earlier, the eye is peeking out again?
Also, looking at this loop, it appears to me that it is moving more W of NW. However, this could just be an uncompleted loop. Check it out for yourselves:
Latest Visible Loop
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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What I find real intresting is how far away the strong winds with extend from the center. If Im not mistaken it's already pretty windy on the east coast of Flordia. Also in the Bahamas with Nassau reporting an 87mph wind gust with the storm still quite far away. showed a interview from Abaco and there was already some damage their but Im not sure how far away the center was from there. Anyone got a map of the Bahamas so I can get these names down?? I keep forgeting. Anyways, over here in the Panhandle, its quite breezy, Winds from the NE about 20mph or so. I dont know if its a direct effect from , Just thought I'd state the fact.
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