Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1st, 2019 and ends on Nov 30th, 2019.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 62 (Michael) , Major: 62 (Michael) Florida - Any: 62 (Michael) Major: 62 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | >> (show all)
mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 117
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: Movement [Re: Unregistered User]
      #23839 - Fri Sep 03 2004 03:27 PM

I guess it would have help if I had included the link I was referring to a couple of posts back

What direction is she going ??????
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_29/anis.html


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic [Re: crm9501]
      #23840 - Fri Sep 03 2004 03:29 PM

Will the more west movt cause the forecast track to be shifted back to the left and increase the chance of a second panhandle landfall ?

What do you think Jason ?

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Movement [Re: mbfly]
      #23841 - Fri Sep 03 2004 03:29 PM

I agree with you all. I see a West or even a WSW motion right now. This could be a big factor on where Frances makes landfall and whether she gets into the Gulf or not.



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic [Re: wxman007]
      #23842 - Fri Sep 03 2004 03:33 PM

Check out this visible loop...if the center is where I *think* it is, which would just below the tip of the island it just hammered and right in between that island and the one to the south of it (a hurricane sandwich), it almost looks as if the eye is reappearing and has formed south and west. If you click on the upper right hand corner of the window where it says "Forecast Points", it sure doesnt' appear to me that Frances is headed that way...at least for now.

Goes Visible Loop

I don't know if I'm right or wrong about where the center is, but I've been watching Frances for some 50 years now, and Iso it could be that my eyes are just tired.

Feel absolutely free to correct me if need be.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic [Re: DroopGB31]
      #23843 - Fri Sep 03 2004 03:34 PM

Droop -- Frances essentially swallowed it whole. It was responsible for some dry air entrainment into the storm, but much of that is in the process of being moistened out. The storm is pretty much at a steady state right now, but does have the potential for some reintensification. How much (of both potential and strengthening)....to be determined.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Movement [Re: SirCane]
      #23844 - Fri Sep 03 2004 03:34 PM

So...what are the odds of Frances beating Ivan to the FL coast? Looks to me on the latest satellite pics like the convection has rotated around, but she hasn't moved.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Movement [Re: SirCane]
      #23845 - Fri Sep 03 2004 03:37 PM

there is no wsw motion, you have to watch the radar pretty much now overall with motion. What you are seeing on the vis is the decay on the sw side of the center giving a appearance of a w movement. I do think its going more wnw but should be near 285dg later this evening or tonight and come into florida Sat evening. I did same couple days back on my 3 day landfall that it would weaken in the near term due to the influence of the trough but clark pretty much explained it very good. I did and still do expect this to regain intensity later tonight into tomorrow as a strong Cat 3 making landfall in Martin or St lucie counties as has been expected.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Wind Field [Re: scottsvb1]
      #23846 - Fri Sep 03 2004 03:39 PM

Looks like Tropical Storm Force winds will be moving onshore this evening according to this graphic

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Movement W [Re: SirCane]
      #23847 - Fri Sep 03 2004 03:41 PM

Looks like it might be happening you see it best I think on Dorvak.One would have to see this continue for a few more hours before one could commit to it.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Current Conditions [Re: Jamiewx]
      #23848 - Fri Sep 03 2004 03:41 PM

Nowcast
Through 4 PM...a spiral rainband from Hurricane Frances will continue to move towards the southwest across the Atlantic waters. This rainband will affect the East Coast Metro areas...producing winds of tropical storm force...possibly up to 60 mph. Heavy rainfall will also be seen.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: Movement [Re: mbfly]
      #23849 - Fri Sep 03 2004 03:46 PM

mbfly.. excellent link. TY. Perhaps it is just my laymans, untrained eye but it appears that the mass of the center core is rebuilding to the southwest. Not wishcasting... just an observation. All eyes will be on the 5:00 p.m. track update for sure...

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Local update [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #23850 - Fri Sep 03 2004 03:50 PM

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SQUALLS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AT 50 MPH.
A MEASURED WIND GUST TO 54 MPH WAS RECEIVED FROM BOCA RATON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SQUALL EXTENDS FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO FORT
LAUDERDALE TO AVENTURA. MUCH OF METRO PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE WILL BE IMPACTED.

PERSONS SHOULD AVOID BEING OUTDOORS! POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY TO BE EXPERIENCED WHEN TREE LIMBS ARE BLOWN DOWN.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hbdj5
Unregistered




Re: Frances Weakens a Bit - Ivan forms in East Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #23851 - Fri Sep 03 2004 03:50 PM

Ive heard that if the storm happens to stall or stay under 5mph on land this could drop as much 30 inches on florida

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SoonerShawn
Unregistered




5:00 Update [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #23852 - Fri Sep 03 2004 03:51 PM

I would say don't expect much to change at the 5:00 update as far as the track is concerned. I just don't see the NHC really changing anything at this point and time.

ShawnS


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... [Re: scottsvb1]
      #23853 - Fri Sep 03 2004 03:53 PM

well I've just stared at the Miami long range radar loop for about the last 10 minutes... and I don't see much of any discernable movement at all during the loop time span... if its moving, its not moving very much at this very moment.... at least not to this set of tired, burning and untrained eyes....

here is the loop if you want to persue some up close and personal agony...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Pressure Drop [Re: Frank P]
      #23854 - Fri Sep 03 2004 03:55 PM

Steve Lyons just got the latest vortex message, says the pressure has dropped a couple of millibars. Local mets are saying it is pulling itself together. Steve also saying the WNW motion is not expected to continue and the storm should resume a NW motion.

Edited by Jamiewx (Fri Sep 03 2004 03:57 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Re: 5:00 Update [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #23855 - Fri Sep 03 2004 04:01 PM

Never say never...they've changed the track with almost every advisory. Not by a lot, but they have done it. In fact, I think the closer you get to a landfall, the more they are going to tweak that track so expect more, not less.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 185
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... [Re: Frank P]
      #23856 - Fri Sep 03 2004 04:01 PM

Colleen, I was seeing that motion too. On the infrared loops it looked almost like Frances was turning back on herself. Almost like one side was "heavier" than the other, and as a certain point in the storm circulates past due north it almost pulls the storm closer to due west. Also, the west side of the storm is starting to look rather ragged. Obviously this is probably due to its interaction with the Bahamas and the SE coast of Florida.

--------------------
Check the Surf

Edited by AgentB (Fri Sep 03 2004 04:02 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
unregistered
Unregistered




Re: Wobbles, Bobbles and Grovels.... Oh my.... [Re: Frank P]
      #23857 - Fri Sep 03 2004 04:02 PM

SL on TWC said that pressure is down slightly . An area of deep convection near center is noted. Could the weakening trend be over? Or is this just a short, temporary burst? Any info?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Coming back??? [Re: unregistered]
      #23858 - Fri Sep 03 2004 04:03 PM

Pressure down...winds up....700mb heights falling...

748
URNT12 KNHC 031925
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/1925Z
B. 25 DEG 50 MIN N
77 DEG 13 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2738 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 024 DEG 82 KT
G. 288 DEG 021 NM
H. 959 MB
I. 10 C/ 3093 M
J. 17 C/ 3096 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF984 2306A Frances OB 11
MAX FL WIND 94 KT NE QUAD 1811Z.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Edited by wxman007 (Fri Sep 03 2004 04:13 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 94 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 55438

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center