mbfly
Weather Guru
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Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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I guess it would have help if I had included the link I was referring to a couple of posts back 
What direction is she going ??????
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_29/anis.html
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Will the more west movt cause the forecast track to be shifted back to the left and increase the chance of a second panhandle landfall ?
What do you think Jason ?
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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I agree with you all. I see a West or even a WSW motion right now. This could be a big factor on where makes landfall and whether she gets into the Gulf or not.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Check out this visible loop...if the center is where I *think* it is, which would just below the tip of the island it just hammered and right in between that island and the one to the south of it (a hurricane sandwich), it almost looks as if the eye is reappearing and has formed south and west. If you click on the upper right hand corner of the window where it says "Forecast Points", it sure doesnt' appear to me that is headed that way...at least for now.
Goes Visible Loop
I don't know if I'm right or wrong about where the center is, but I've been watching for some 50 years now, and Iso it could be that my eyes are just tired. 
Feel absolutely free to correct me if need be.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc:
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Droop -- essentially swallowed it whole. It was responsible for some dry air entrainment into the storm, but much of that is in the process of being moistened out. The storm is pretty much at a steady state right now, but does have the potential for some reintensification. How much (of both potential and strengthening)....to be determined.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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So...what are the odds of beating to the FL coast? Looks to me on the latest satellite pics like the convection has rotated around, but she hasn't moved.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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there is no wsw motion, you have to watch the radar pretty much now overall with motion. What you are seeing on the vis is the decay on the sw side of the center giving a appearance of a w movement. I do think its going more wnw but should be near 285dg later this evening or tonight and come into florida Sat evening. I did same couple days back on my 3 day landfall that it would weaken in the near term due to the influence of the trough but clark pretty much explained it very good. I did and still do expect this to regain intensity later tonight into tomorrow as a strong Cat 3 making landfall in Martin or St lucie counties as has been expected.
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Looks like Tropical Storm Force winds will be moving onshore this evening according to this graphic
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Looks like it might be happening you see it best I think on Dorvak.One would have to see this continue for a few more hours before one could commit to it.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Nowcast
Through 4 PM...a spiral rainband from Hurricane will continue to move towards the southwest across the Atlantic waters. This rainband will affect the East Coast Metro areas...producing winds of tropical storm force...possibly up to 60 mph. Heavy rainfall will also be seen.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered
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mbfly.. excellent link. TY. Perhaps it is just my laymans, untrained eye but it appears that the mass of the center core is rebuilding to the southwest. Not wishcasting... just an observation. All eyes will be on the 5:00 p.m. track update for sure...
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SQUALLS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AT 50 MPH.
A MEASURED WIND GUST TO 54 MPH WAS RECEIVED FROM BOCA RATON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SQUALL EXTENDS FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO FORT
LAUDERDALE TO AVENTURA. MUCH OF METRO PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE WILL BE IMPACTED.
PERSONS SHOULD AVOID BEING OUTDOORS! POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY TO BE EXPERIENCED WHEN TREE LIMBS ARE BLOWN DOWN.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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hbdj5
Unregistered
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Ive heard that if the storm happens to stall or stay under 5mph on land this could drop as much 30 inches on florida 
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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I would say don't expect much to change at the 5:00 update as far as the track is concerned. I just don't see the really changing anything at this point and time.
ShawnS
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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well I've just stared at the Miami long range radar loop for about the last 10 minutes... and I don't see much of any discernable movement at all during the loop time span... if its moving, its not moving very much at this very moment.... at least not to this set of tired, burning and untrained eyes....
here is the loop if you want to persue some up close and personal agony...
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Steve Lyons just got the latest vortex message, says the pressure has dropped a couple of millibars. Local mets are saying it is pulling itself together. Steve also saying the WNW motion is not expected to continue and the storm should resume a NW motion.
Edited by Jamiewx (Fri Sep 03 2004 07:57 PM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Never say never...they've changed the track with almost every advisory. Not by a lot, but they have done it. In fact, I think the closer you get to a landfall, the more they are going to tweak that track so expect more, not less. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Colleen, I was seeing that motion too. On the infrared loops it looked almost like was turning back on herself. Almost like one side was "heavier" than the other, and as a certain point in the storm circulates past due north it almost pulls the storm closer to due west. Also, the west side of the storm is starting to look rather ragged. Obviously this is probably due to its interaction with the Bahamas and the SE coast of Florida.
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Check the Surf
Edited by AgentB (Fri Sep 03 2004 08:02 PM)
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unregistered
Unregistered
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SL on said that pressure is down slightly . An area of deep convection near center is noted. Could the weakening trend be over? Or is this just a short, temporary burst? Any info?
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Pressure down...winds up....700mb heights falling...
748
URNT12 KNHC 031925
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/1925Z
B. 25 DEG 50 MIN N
77 DEG 13 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2738 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 024 DEG 82 KT
G. 288 DEG 021 NM
H. 959 MB
I. 10 C/ 3093 M
J. 17 C/ 3096 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF984 2306A OB 11
MAX FL WIND 94 KT NE QUAD 1811Z.
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Jason Kelley
Edited by wxman007 (Fri Sep 03 2004 08:13 PM)
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