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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: Radar [Re: PFSThunder]
      #23941 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:57 PM

Frances now has a concentric center of circulation approximately 75 nautical miles in diameter, rather than a true eye. After reviewing several different feeds and loops, I can detect no discernible movement at all. How long can it tread water in one place before upswelling begins to have an effect?

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alan
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
OK I'll say it [Re: Unregistered User]
      #23942 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:58 PM

Dynagel!

For those conspiracy theorists:

Charley grew too fast and too close to the US and was moving too fast for the Dynagel to take affect.

They Dynagel people knew Frances was coming, they stacked up on the stuff and were able to get enough stuff in it to tame the storm. After all, once again, a massive, long tracking storm dies a quick death that few saw coming right before it hit the U.S.

I knew it wouldn't take too long...well...now you get to explain it to every newbie who's going to ask "what's dynagel?" It was funny five years ago...but not right now

Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 03 2004 08:00 PM)


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Just a Thought [Re: Unregistered User]
      #23943 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:00 PM

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/ba/04sep/index_thumb_short.html
This is an interesting page on the gulf stream. It seems to show the waters cooling too soon which leads me to believe at this moment that Frances will not have any more warm water to draw on soon. I hope in this case I am correct. Although I fear the reaction to the situation if people suddenly feel they have been erroneously asked to evacuate.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Cane Watcher
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Loc: ATL/ via Melbourne
Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: LI Phil]
      #23944 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:03 PM

Well said Phil, I agree totally with you. Lets not jinx the good luck that is going on now. I have family in the Bahamas (Nassau and Abaco). I know they are wishing they the weakened version of Frances.

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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #23945 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:04 PM

So, no change in the coordinates over the last three hours. Shouldn't that give the perfect opportunity for strengthening? Yet, the pressure is slightly higher once again.....

Ok, so as usual... I'm too busy in other windows to read the obvious posts right before mine.... oh well!

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Terra Dassau Cahill

Edited by Terra (Fri Sep 03 2004 08:08 PM)


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zacros
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
Re: Just a Thought [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #23946 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:04 PM

Could the shallow water around the bahamas have anything to do with the significant decrease in hurricane strength (aside from the dynogel)? I know the shear and the dry air play a major role, but this storm seemed to be loosing strength prior to these taking there toll.

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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: LI Phil]
      #23947 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:04 PM

Officially reduced to Cat 2 with 105 mph winds.

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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: Just a Thought [Re: Unregistered User]
      #23948 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:06 PM

Ok, Im giving up on predicting intensity for now. If you ask me since none of the hostile conditions are letting up I wouldnt be surprised if she just keeps weakening up until landfall. There is no eyewall plus windfields are spreading out. Hell, at this rate she'll be a TS by landfall lol

lol? I've got users PMing my a$$ asking me if their power goes out can they call me on the telephone to call in conditions...guess they don't care about everyone else.

Let's hope this landfalls as a TS! Jezus...think about those directly it Frances' path! I'm 1,500 miles away and I care.

Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 03 2004 08:11 PM)


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alan
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
Re: OK I'll say it [Re: alan]
      #23949 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:07 PM

OK, li phil I'll explain.

Dynagel is an urban legend that a company in South Florida was developing. The legend was that the company would be able to release a gooey substance that would suck the moisture out of a hurricane, thus weakening the storm.

Dynagel is, in fact, an actual product. They use it to make jello.

Of course, this is one of many creative ideas people have thought of to stop a hurricane, ranging from use of nuclear weapons to a series of airhoses with holes placed at the bottom of the ocean to cause upwelling.

All of these systems have been discounted time and time again.

Edited by alan (Fri Sep 03 2004 08:09 PM)


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: OK I'll say it [Re: alan]
      #23950 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:10 PM

It may even weaken further if it doesn't move .


Is anyone listening to Jim Williams show from Hurricanecity ?

http://www.hurricanecity.com/live.ram


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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
will wonders never cease? [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #23951 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:10 PM

stalled....be interesting to see the forecasts over the next few days. Imagine the exodus of people....only to realize it is out there dying a slow death.

HOWEVER, nothing could be discounted...if it were in a stage where it was a cat 1, and had just increased to a cat 2...the board reaction would be more trepidation and fear...right?...

which is why I wonder if there is a natural time table to these things....which is to say...can they really sustain themselves as strong 4-5's very long. Wonder about that...

still think it has all the capacity to get stronger, and conversely...get weaker.

a waiting game...dumm dee dumm dummmm


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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: Just a Thought [Re: DroopGB31]
      #23952 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:12 PM

Who was right or wrong with predictions is irrelevant... this continued weakening trend is a minor miracle and more than we ever could have hoped for. Everything else being equal, even if it does resume the projected path and regain strength, it is rebuilding from a lower intensity, which means reduced wind impact upon landfall. That's good news... now the slow forward speed and resultant heavy rainfall is another matter altogether...

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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 185
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: LI Phil]
      #23953 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:19 PM

Phil you are absolutely right about the weakening. Remember everybody the difference between 140mph and 105mph is not just 35mph. It is an exponential difference, and can mean the difference between major structural collapses and *only* roof damage and trees coming down(though that's not insignificant either). We can only hope that this weakening trend continues. Though that also seems to be a point of debate. I tend to side with those that believe this storm won't restrengthen to the point it was earlier today. My reasoning is that it takes a huge amount of energy to power a storm this large to the levels it once was at. Right now, being over the Bahamas(land/shallow albeit warm water) and being very close to Florida cuts down how much "power" is available to it. While the back half of the storm might be over water, the front half will be coming apart with every mile it moves further inland. With Charley that storm was small, easier to "power", had nothing but warm water and moisture laden air around it, and no land interaction between Cuba and Florida. That is why it got so powerful so fast. I had a feeling as we got closer to today and tomorrow that this storm would indeed stall out. It's reached the ridge, will interact with it a bit, then start to move "down it" to the west. Currently, with its latitude it's about even with North Miami Beach. I think we'll see the same more west than north movement Frances has exhibited for most of her life in the next few hours, but not before she drifts a bit closer to SE Florida.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: will wonders never cease? [Re: rickonboat]
      #23954 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:21 PM

It's official. The NHC position reported at 5:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. is exactly the same: 25.9N 77.5W. No movement.

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HMY
Unregistered




Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: AgentB]
      #23955 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:22 PM

So, does this mean Frances will sit, sputter and die down. Or are we in Florida still in for it??? I am so confused at this point.

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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Re: will wonders never cease? [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #23956 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:25 PM

A SW move? I don't know but looking at the radar I would say it at least looks like it did. Of course sometimes radar loops can be deceiving. You be the judge.

ShawnS


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: Just a Thought [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #23957 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:25 PM

LI Phil, No disrespect but you took my post the wrong way or maybe I just worded it wrong. I'd be more then happy for the folks in Fl. if this weakened further to a Cat. 1 or TS. I think its funny that she was forecasted to be a Cat 4 at landfall remember the quote from the NHC a few days ago "I cant emphasize enough how powerful this storm is, If there is something out there to weaken it, we havent seen it." Talk about a major bust. So my apologies LI Phil, I know this is still a serious threat, and that isnt something to laugh about. I didnt mean any harm in my post, just worded it wrong. Could be Im not thinking straight, I've had the flu for 2 days now and tracking Frances sure aint helping me. So my apologies Phil.

No apologies necessary...Alan just PMed me with a "similar" complaint. I need to relax...I know no one wants any monster storms hitting any landmasses. It just seems that us hurricane nuts (myself #1 fan) seem to get upset when they weaken...and if they could all harmllesslly spin fish that would be a good thing. It's just that when they threaten people (especially those we know), we kind of wish they'd fall apart henceforth. I'll lay off the snide remarks. Just don't make it like you sound disappointed if a CAT III starts to disintegrate...good deal?

Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 03 2004 08:30 PM)


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jaybythebay
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 18
Loc: Mobile,Al
Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: HMY]
      #23958 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:28 PM

The winds maybe down but a slow moving hurricane can put down alot of rain. As Danny a min. hurricane(75mph) dump 25" of rain in parts of Mobile. So lower winds are GREAT but this slow motion is still bad.

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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: jaybythebay]
      #23959 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:29 PM

Quote:

The winds maybe down but a slow moving hurricane can put down alot of rain. As Danny a min. hurricane(75mph) dump 25" of rain in parts of Mobile. So lower winds are GREAT but this slow motion is still bad.





It was up to 47 inches of rain . I saw 31 here in Mobile county.

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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 185
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: HMY]
      #23960 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:30 PM

Quote:

So, does this mean Frances will sit, sputter and die down. Or are we in Florida still in for it??? I am so confused at this point.




Until this storm makes landfall and weakens as it moves inland you CANNOT discount anything happening. The weakening seems to be a trend at this point because it has been happeneing for a few hours now. However, this system has been somewhat unpredictable for a lot of the time, and it could jump up somewhat in intensity. What I stated was my *opinion*(and we all know how those go...lol) that this storm probably would not restrenthen to the levels that it once was at. I believe that a storm this big, and this thing was/is huge, takes a lot of energy from the water and surrounding air to make it grow that large, maintain that intensity and move that fast(up to 18mph just a day or so ago). Once the "power" source gets lowered I believe the storm cannot help but weaken, and weaken fairly substantially. I liken it to a comparison between a muscle car and a regular family sedan. Say they both have the same amount of fuel in the tank. The muscle car will run out of gas earlier because it takes a heckuva lot more power/energy to move that versus the regular family sedan.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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