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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
add some confusion [Re: Rabbit]
      #23982 - Fri Sep 03 2004 09:14 PM

situation is becoming very complex. pressure has been essentially stable all day, but the expanding windfield and stall of the storm is throwing everything into ambiguity. if the storm spins down, the deep layer steering should kick in and take the system further west.. of course the models that forecast the system to up towards ga/sc a couple days ago were exhibiting a stall at times. Frances associated shortwave ridge has stuck it's nose down into the nw caribbean and is contributing to it's own sheared situation.
i'm just not sure how the storm will respond to this.. as the storm spins down in a regime of conflicting steering.. there are lots of things that can happen.
HF 0114z04september


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami
Re: San Salvador [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #23983 - Fri Sep 03 2004 09:20 PM

That must mean that they have actually heard from someone on San Salvador, up until now there had been no contact at all, not even ham radio contact. Same with Cat Island.

Bill


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: add some confusion [Re: HanKFranK]
      #23984 - Fri Sep 03 2004 09:20 PM

All y'all...can't moderate (yeah for some of you) any more tonight....but will be back tomorrow. Then, my one and only vacation will also coincide with France' landfall. I will be back tomorrow, but to those who can not be..god speed.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
The long wait [Re: centauratlas]
      #23985 - Fri Sep 03 2004 09:21 PM

If you are complaining that the storm is taking forever to get here, just wait and see how long it is going to take to get rid of it. Remember, most of the storm is on the east side now, so it will seem like forever to get rid of the storm once you get on that side. At 4 mph, you could walk from the Bahamas to Florida faster.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami
Re: The long wait [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #23986 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:08 PM

At this rate, it won't get anywhere until next week some time.

Seems to still be stalled. And the SW side is almost non existent, which is why we are getting no weather at all here in Miami.

I am happy with the reduced strength, I am not happy it has stalled. As others have posted, this can be good and can be bad, and I'm worried about the bad.

Bill


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Florida residents.... don't underestimate storm surge [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #23987 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:08 PM

Even in a weakened state Frances has a relatively large wind field and is capable of pushing a massive amount of surge where she goes inland...

case in point... a couple of years ago Isador hit the MS coast with sustained winds of about 60/65 mph and had very little convection, basically just a large strong LLC with very little convection... but it had a very large wind field, and at one time near the Yucatan it was a major storm before weakening and the traveling across the entire GOM from Mexico to MS.. but it never regained its intensity..... eventually it went inland near the MS/LS line but she put up a tremendous surge... totally unexpected, we were expecting 4-5 max.... emergency evacuations were called for as the surge was coming in the city..

the surge was about 8.5 to 9 feet above sea level in front of my house....which was the highest surge in Biloxi since Camille (22 feet at my house), think about that... Isador's surge was higher than Elena's (1985 - 8 feet) and Georges' (98 -8 feet) surges, of which both the eyes passed over the city of Biloxi..... these surges were measured across the street from my house on the beach.... surges were perhaps higher in other areas.. note Georges did put a tremendous storm surge in Pascagoula, which was in the right quadrant of the storm... probably in the 10-12 range.....

so I expect Frances to put up a tremendous surge as it makes landfall, regardless if itís a Cat 1 or 2 or whatever..

something to consider.....

;


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Alex.K
Unregistered




recon? [Re: Frank P]
      #23988 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:12 PM

Good post about the storm surge

Is there any new recon data from Frances recently?


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Nassau, Bahamas [Re: Frank P]
      #23989 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:14 PM

As of 8 pm, Nassau in the Bahamas has had 21 straight hours with winds gusting over 50 mph. Peak gust 110 mph. They have not even been in /near the eye.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: recon? [Re: Alex.K]
      #23990 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:15 PM

last recon I have is the 2307Z

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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: recon? [Re: Frank P]
      #23991 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:48 PM

New location out for 11:00 update. Back on projected track. 26.1N, 77.8 W. Continuing WNW.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
tracking the center of Frances [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #23992 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:52 PM

If you're interested in tracking the center it is showing up well on the Miami Composite Reflectivity long range radar loop... it shows the center better than the Base Reflectivity long range...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.kamx.shtml

Interesting GFDL shift more west, to points between Mobile and Pensacola... its the outlier

and no Rick, this will not be the big one for you... this time..


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teal61
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
Re: recon? [Re: Frank P]
      #23993 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:56 PM

Just checked on the Texas A@M site and no new recon there, it's usually as up to date as you can get so I don't know whats up with recon tonight. I think she's still a little east of the 11pm based upon the Miami radar.

I really need to shut this down for tonight and get to bed, but It's hard to pull away from the computer. I'm flying up to Jackson in the morning and heading north to the "big game" tomorrow night. I'm gonna be having withdrawals not having a computer to look at for 24 hours.


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
What an Excellent Model [Re: MikeC]
      #23994 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:58 PM

What a great model for the complexities of hurricane forecasting Frances has been. On Wednesday before school was cancelled, I talked with my students about the types of conditions that can cause a hurricane to strengthen/weaken. I hope some of them have access to TV's wherever they are riding out the storm so that they can see the causes for the dramatic changes we have seen with Frances today. We also talked about how the forward movement of the hurricane can affect flooding. Unfortunately that aspect has me a little nervous. The problem with Florida is there is nowhere for 8-10 inches of rain to go, much less 15-20 inches! The comments about a possibly large storm surge even with a weakened storm is news that is also unsettling. What factors would contribute to such a large surge? I thought the surge was whipped up by the high winds :?:

--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: What an Excellent Model [Re: cjzydeco]
      #23995 - Sat Sep 04 2004 01:33 PM

still up?

Ahh, guess it is back up and running.

Edited by Rasvar (Sat Sep 04 2004 01:34 PM)


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
And now back to Frances [Re: Rasvar]
      #23996 - Sat Sep 04 2004 01:41 PM

Looks like recon was really unable to find some strong surface winds. Only found 50Kt at the surface; but this thing is so big, it does not seem to matter.

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: And now back to Frances [Re: Rasvar]
      #23997 - Sat Sep 04 2004 03:04 PM

glad to see the board up and going..

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EKH2004
Unregistered




Re: And now back to Frances [Re: andy1tom]
      #23998 - Sat Sep 04 2004 03:09 PM

yes...the best info comes from this board I hope that everyone realizes it is up and going

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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
glad board is back up... [Re: andy1tom]
      #23999 - Sat Sep 04 2004 03:10 PM

Frances is just sitting there....huge 80 mile wide eyewall...

wonder what the forecasters are thinking now?


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palmetto
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 23
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: And now back to Frances [Re: andy1tom]
      #24000 - Sat Sep 04 2004 03:14 PM

Here in Tallahassee, we're alternating between overcast and sunny, and judging by the sat pictures, we're starting to see our first taste of Frances. According to the NWS, the wind is NE at 13mph, and the pressure is at 1014. I'm seeing more wind out of my window than I did when Bonnie made landfall nearby, definitely. Starting to worry about the branches that hang over the roof of my apartment, and considering going to get some sandbags to put in front of the sliding glass door in case runoff from the high school playing fields right next to my apartment decides to get up that far.

I'm starting to get nervous, and I'm not likely to get as much of the storm as those of you further south in the state. My prayers are with all of you.


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: glad board is back up... [Re: rickonboat]
      #24001 - Sat Sep 04 2004 03:15 PM

Quote:

Frances is just sitting there....huge 80 mile wide eyewall...

wonder what the forecasters are thinking now?




Probably the same thing I'm thinking. Can we get on with it?

Maybe Frances was waiting for flhurricane.com to come back up. Thanks guys again for your efforts on this site! I've been lost all morning.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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