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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow
      #23886 - Fri Sep 03 2004 04:50 PM

Frances, still a Category 3 storm, will fluctuate in intensity again, and may get a bit stronger a little bit before landfall likely sometime tomorrow afternoon. The biggest story, however, is that it will move slowly over the peninsula.

Good luck tomorrow all, prayers, and more to all my friends in Florida. I am out for the evening -- flying to atlanta tonight. Others will fill the gap tonight.

Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:

Melbourne (East Central Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Miami (South Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa Bay (West Central Florida)Long Range Radar Loop
[url=http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/wxstatement.php?t=HLS&l=JAX]
Jacksonville (North Florida)[/url] - Long Range Radar Loop

Local county by county information will no longer be updated unles there is breaking news here -- it's just impossible to keep up because of the size of the area under Hurricane Watch. Use the links in the last article to view county emergency management webpages. Florida Disaster.org is the state em page, with links to locals as well.

Definitely more to come later...

** SITE NOTE ** This website is receiving way beyond record traffic today, it will be slow, it will go down ocasionally, but should be back up shortly when that happens. We've done everything we can to help this along short of dumping zillions into bandwidth and hardware to keep it going. Apologies in advance.

Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will be doing live broadcasts about Hurricane Frances startiing tonight at 8PM EST.

Event RelatedLinks
Miami Radar Long Range loop (Note the Miami NWS Radar hardware is having issues and may be down)
Frances Models -- This image animated over time
TD#9 Models -- This image animated over time
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of Frances approach (Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops of Frances (Click floater)



General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info



NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: MikeC]
      #23898 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:26 PM

Mike, just an FYI, you may want to stop using that Hurricane Alley "Spaghetti Run" model map. They went PPV and that model run is from nearly two days ago.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: MikeC]
      #23899 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:28 PM

Looking at the Miami radar I can see a definite w to wnw motion. The eye (center) is starting to come into view on it now.

ShawnS


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eligrace
Unregistered




Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: MikeC]
      #23901 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:29 PM

Jason or anyone else could you tell me a site as to where i could get a windfield map ,for the current forecasted track.

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Colleen A.
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Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: MikeC]
      #23903 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:29 PM

Okay, that met just answered all my questions. Either right in at Vero Beach, or just south of it around 5pm tomorrow night with winds 120+ plus...he was also using a model (the VIPIR ?) and he pointed out this model they were using at his weather center was now coming into line with the NHC'S forecast track now, no longer indicating a northwest/brush along the coast. He also said (and this is what he said, not ME) that is it is POSSIBILE that this storm could re-intensify to a CAT IV before making landfall.

I'm not saying this to scare anyone or be an alarmist, I'm just telling you what he said. So don't anyone yell at me, okay?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: Colleen A.]
      #23905 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:41 PM

looking at the Miami radar gives a weird presentation of the eye... yeah, front eye wall part of it looks to be moving west, not sure what the east eye wall is doing, its like hanging behind, thus the radar presentation hints that the eye is perhaps elongating from WNW to ESE.... I would think you would really see a much better developed eye on radar with a storm this strong...

No one yell at Colleen either...


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Latest Vortex [Re: Colleen A.]
      #23906 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:49 PM

Presure up, winds down...

Storm Frances: Observed By AF #984
Storm #06 in Atlantic Ocean
Date/Time of Recon Report: Friday, September 03, 2004 16:09:00
Position of the center: 25 52' N 77 16' W
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2748m (Normal: 3011)
Maximum Surface Winds Were: Not Estimated
No Bearing From Center To Estimated Surface Winds Was Measured
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 90KT (103.5mph) From 136
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 046nm (52.9miles) From Center At Bearing 034
Minimum pressure: 960mb (28.35in)
Eye Wall Was < 50% Closed
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.1nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm


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Kimmie
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 5
Loc: Lousiana
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: Frank P]
      #23907 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:49 PM

I noticed the same thing with the radar out of Miami. Looks to be heading WNW at this moment and now that it is within radar range we will be able to track her right into landfall. Doesn't seem possible that it would be moving as slow as they say??? I pray for Florida's sake she decides to become a fast mover! Hope everyone is where they need to be and SAFE! Kimmie

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Additional Vortex Message Data [Re: Kimmie]
      #23908 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:53 PM

provided by Londovir and his programming skills....

thanks Londovir....

Per the recon vortex message the eye did not have a definable form.... gee maybe that is why I'm having so much trouble trying to get it on radar....

Edited by Frank P (Fri Sep 03 2004 05:55 PM)


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc:
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: MikeC]
      #23909 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:53 PM

fyi - model spaghetti from "hurricane alley" is not updating anymore ... by paid subscription only now. Thanks Mike for keeping this board going! Maybe we'll hear from you in ATL.

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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: eligrace]
      #23910 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:53 PM

Quote:

Jason or anyone else could you tell me a site as to where i could get a windfield map ,for the current forecasted track.




In progess... when done these maps will be avaiable at http://www.skeetobite.com

Busy locking down a home and a business... yikes - a CAT 1 over Lakeland, FL. Who would have guessed?


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Ronn
User


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Seminole, FL
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: Colleen A.]
      #23911 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:54 PM

The wind field of Frances has become considerably larger over the past 6 hours. I think Frances is going to have a difficult time wrapping up and becoming better organized before landfall. In my opinion, the intensity has leveled off and will remain between 95-105 knots until landfall.

Ronn

Edited by Ronn (Fri Sep 03 2004 05:55 PM)


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Alberta Canada
Unregistered




Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: MikeC]
      #23912 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:54 PM

Thoughts are with you Florida....batton down and hang on!

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teal61
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
Frank P.... [Re: Frank P]
      #23913 - Fri Sep 03 2004 05:55 PM

After looking at the Miami radar loop and the rapid scan sat loop I've come to the conclusion that she's stationary right off of the southern point if that island (don't remember the name of it). If you look at the composite reflectivity long range loop you can pick up some lighter returns moving east around the center and it looks to be just south or southeast of the islands southern point. There may be some movement off to the west northwest but it is very slow.

Upon further review, I am fairly confident that is the center, but I now believe it's over or just east of the southern part of the island. Again, the composite reflectivity loop shows this very well especially when it's run at a faster speed. Hard to tell about movement maybe very slowly wnw, but I think its nearly stationary and the last two recon fixes would seem to confirm that. If this is the center it's about 30 miles or so east of the NHC's 5pm position.

Edited by teal61 (Fri Sep 03 2004 06:22 PM)


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: Ronn]
      #23914 - Fri Sep 03 2004 06:01 PM

You can easily see the eyewall opening up on the west side in the latest visible. So much for the weakening being over.

ShawnS


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schmoo
Unregistered




Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: Ronn]
      #23915 - Fri Sep 03 2004 06:01 PM

is another more northerly shift expected?
I'm confused by the direction it appears to be going and the projected landfall.


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 185
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: schmoo]
      #23916 - Fri Sep 03 2004 06:29 PM

Remember this stall is not unexpected. Unfortunately some had it stalling a bit further north, and some right where it is. The next forecasted motion that was supposed to take place after this stall was a movement just north of west. I believe the storm has felt it's way into the ridge, and now it will feel it's way along a "path of least resistance". That is supposed to be to the WNW, but anything can happen. Also, the storm has seemed to trend further south than each forecast had it at. With that in mind I still see it making landfall around WPB and tracking just north of west across the state.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: MikeC]
      #23917 - Fri Sep 03 2004 06:29 PM

Closer, more detailed tracking map available here:

http://www.skeetobite.com

Wind field map in progress - it's getting so big we can barely map it and display a reduced size image. Guess they'll just get bigger too!


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc:
Rainfall Network [Re: schmoo]
      #23918 - Fri Sep 03 2004 06:45 PM

Here's a link to some realtime rainfall data from South Florida Water Management District Useful for the next 24 hours at least. Shows about 0.50 inches of rain along Palm Beach coast this afternoon. Nothing compared with what Eleuthera and Abaco islands have been getting, and what's in store for parts of Florida! NHC is staying on track with Frances.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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erauwx
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 15
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #23919 - Fri Sep 03 2004 06:46 PM

Definite burst in convective activity (on IR) ... anybody else notice?? Am I seeing things?

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
looks almost stationary to me too Teal.... [Re: teal61]
      #23920 - Fri Sep 03 2004 06:51 PM

can't really make out any motion at the moment..... guess she'll move when she damn well feels like it......

women..... (just kidding ladies)

I might add she does not present a very attractive radar presentation either for a major storm, which she does not look like at all at the moment.... hope she doesn't take this criticism to harsh either...


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jim013
Unregistered




Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: erauwx]
      #23921 - Fri Sep 03 2004 06:53 PM

yes i def agree with you i see the same thing

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: looks almost stationary to me too Teal.... [Re: Frank P]
      #23922 - Fri Sep 03 2004 06:56 PM

Just wait until she gets her sauna steam bath over the Gulf Stream. I hope we do not wake up tomorrow morning with a monster in the back yard. Size some times is not everything with weather systems if it is spread equally among 50 states.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: AgentB]
      #23923 - Fri Sep 03 2004 06:58 PM

well if that comes to fruition AgentB it could actually enter the GOM at a much lower latitude than forecasted by the NHC...

disclaimer.... anything I post for the remainder of the evening take with a grain of salt.... I am suffering from a serious case of deliriousness from looking at way to many sat and radar loops during the past 24 hours... I'm going to take a break... bet when I come back, nothing will have changed....

FP.lol. that happened to me yesterday...

Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 03 2004 07:43 PM)


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: looks almost stationary to me too Teal.... [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #23924 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:09 PM

Quote:

Just wait until she gets her sauna steam bath over the Gulf Stream. I hope we do not wake up tomorrow morning with a monster in the back yard. Size some times is not everything with weather systems if it is spread equally among 50 states.




Kind of like Opal . When I went to bed it was a cat 1 when I woke up it was almost a cat 5

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc:
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: erauwx]
      #23925 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:10 PM

Sunset makes the burst of convection look all the more impressive on the visual imagery loops!
Here's a link to the 48-hour rainfall forecast SE River Forecast Center. It'll be interesting (scary) to see tomorrow AM's update.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Radar [Re: HCW]
      #23926 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:11 PM

Looked at the radar and I can't really tell which way it is going,if at all, but It certainly looks like it is NOT going north at all.

ShawnS


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centauratlas
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
Loc: Ponte Vedra Beach, FL
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #23927 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:13 PM

Quote:

Mike, just an FYI, you may want to stop using that Hurricane Alley "Spaghetti Run" model map. They went PPV and that model run is from nearly two days ago.




Does anyone know of other places that have this type of run? I've seen some that have groups, but no other place with them all.

Thanks


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HMY
Unregistered




Re: Radar [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #23928 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:14 PM

I have been getting the impression that what the news and forecasters are saying and what is actually happening may be two different things. Scary.

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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: RevUp]
      #23929 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:19 PM

New 18Z GFS takes Frances from landfall on the EC and kind of runs it parallel to the Panhandle finally puting it onshore near Pensacola, FWB. That, plus some of the other models I've seen today makes me think the threat of a second landfall along the Panhandle from Tallahassee to Fl, Al border probably as a strong TS. Even the NHC's favorite model the GFDL takes it much farther west then they have forecasted. Im not real sure though, just going with what I've seen. Im sure this will change so Im not to worried over here.

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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Wind Field images [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #23930 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:25 PM

Done! Getting more complex as we learn to better interpret the forecasts. These images are beginning to require a larger over all size to display properly and display data that best helps everyone concerned.

http://www.skeetobite.com


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MIDA
Unregistered




Re: Radar [Re: HMY]
      #23931 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:26 PM

Been watching the Miami long range radar all afternoon. The local mets (channel 6) are remarking on the absence of rainfall on the SW side of the storm. To me it looks like the bands still offshore are shrinking and dissipating as they swing around. Is there a ton of substinence (sp? into the Mt Gay rum, need something to do) around? Does this mean there will be continued weakening?

Michelle in South Dade
Longtime lurker; love the site
(think I'm registered from 2 years ago but post so infrequently I can't remember my password)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
labor day weekend [Re: Frank P]
      #23932 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:31 PM

thoughts on Frances:
frances is shearing itself. the neat lockstep of upper features supporting the storm is out of whack now, with Frances own upper high extending sw of the storm, feeding its own outflow jet back into its nw quadrant. the weakening steering earlier forecast by some of the globals looks like it was on to something.. Frances isn't moving much this evening. this is beyond my meteorological level.. but i've got an idea that Frances is looking for an outflow hookup to the west.. rather than having it jacked back over it's western side. too stumped to make a movement call other than the official.. wnw/nw line. slowly. if it doesn't get to moving in a few hours upwelling will come into play.. but it would take a hell of a long time over the ~30C waters near the bahamas.
most reasonable thing to predict is a static intensity and landfall in lower brevard county tomorrow night.
ivan:
a tad stronger than the official, slightly to the north. i'm reckoning it will cross the lesser antilles as a major hurricane early tuesday, from this far out. modeling has me thinking this is another threat to the southeastern u.s. late next week.. highly dependent on intensity (a weak storm will continue west) and contact with the islands (hitting any of the larger caribbean islands will knock the strength down). at this far out it's just a hunch.
97L: NRL no longer tracking, may be absorbed into a trough. system is still quite convectively active and over warm waters.. suspect it may still develop, though not as certain as yesterday.
follow on:
oh, lets just get it out now. globals are developing the wave set to come off tonight/tomorrow behind Ivan. GFS is favoring a more northerly track at this point, but until it comes off we won't have much to go on.
frances' weakening is the typical story with longtrackers approaching the u.s. in recent years.. but it may be too good to be true. vigilance until it comes in. may lose some more punch, may start inching back up as steering returns.
HF 2330z03september

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Sep 03 2004 08:13 PM)


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami
Re: Radar [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #23933 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:37 PM

Was watching Bryan Norcross a while ago (maybe 30 mins?) he was talking to someone (having senior moment here, it was not Max Mayfield) at the NHC. There is no eye, just a "center of circulation". They were discussing how difficult it was to use radar in these kinds of siutations to determine direction. So its not you!

They also said it was possible at this point that no eye would ever form, that the wind field had become so dispersed, and so close to landfall, that there was a good chance that an eye would not reform. However they did emphasize this was still a strong and dangerous hurricane.

Right now where I am in Miami it is like a fall evening. Temps have dropped into the upper 70's, variable breeze, cloudy now (it was clear until about 30 mins ago).

Update: forgot to mention, Norcross was pushing the NHC guy about motion. Norcross was asking if it was moving at all, and the NHC guy dodged the question, twice, then Norcross gave up and went on to something else. I thought that was kind of odd.

Bill

Edited by BillD (Fri Sep 03 2004 07:42 PM)


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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 117
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: DroopGB31]
      #23934 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:40 PM

I just came across this while checking out the marine forcast for this weekend. I am supposed to be fishing in a tourny out in the GOM ! Not sure when ALABAMA came so into the picture, but I am surprised that RickinMobileinaboat didn't mention it first !

"FZNT24 KNHC 032045
OFFNT4

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 PM CDT FRI SEP 03 2004

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

GMZ089-040330-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT FRI SEP 03 2004

.SYNOPSIS...WIND AND SEAS INCREASE OVER E GULF SAT THROUGH MON
AS HURRICANE Frances MOVES OVER CENTRAL AND N FLORIDA LATE SUN
AND MON THEN FURTHER INLAND AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER ALABAMA
TUE."



So...you're saying CAT V in mobile bay?

Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 03 2004 07:46 PM)


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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
Re: Radar [Re: BillD]
      #23935 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:41 PM

Interview on CNN with Max Mayfield showed the hurricane hunters found a decrease in winds and would wait for another report. Then downgrade to a Cat II. Everyone still talking this up but the storm is slowing to a crawl, now at 8 mph.

--------------------
Go Boilermakers


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Frances now stationary! [Re: HanKFranK]
      #23936 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:44 PM

Hi everybody! This will be my only chance to post until late. Frances is now stationary on satellite imagery, and the 18Z GFS is now west of current guidance with Frances re-emerging in the GOM and 2nd landfall projected to be near Appalachicola. Recent recon data shows Frances continuing to weaken as shear is evident on her west and southwest side and water vapor shows very dry air to her northwest. All that said, she's looking better on imagery and becoming more symmetrical. Frances going stationary changes things in the short term and depending on who's corner you're in; this isn't a good sign if she gets over the Gulf stream and stays for awhile. It's apparent the ridge to her north and northwest is strong given the water vapor imagery. Difficult to know now whether we're looking at something similar to Opal in 95, and whether it's possible we could see Frances bomb given the high oceanic heat she'll have at her disposal. Yall have a good evening, and prayers are with all along the FL coast tonight.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: berrywr]
      #23937 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:47 PM

According to Bryan Norcross, the storm on the newest update has been downgraded to a Cat II storm, and moving WNW at 4 mph.....He also said that hurricane force winds extend 90 some miles fron the center of the storm....

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Just a Thought [Re: PFSThunder]
      #23939 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:49 PM

Since it seems that the steering currents must be kind of weak right now I'll throw this out there. What if she makes a move straight west and moves over S.Florida and into the GOM. Before you say it, NO I'm not thinking anything about a Texas landfall. What I am saying is that it would give it more time over the gulf to gather strength again. Considering the gulf hasn't had anything since Charley to upwell the water there might be a chance of it getting back to its former self. I hope this does not come true, but at this moment anything seems to be possible.

ShawnS


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #23940 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:56 PM

Hey, all

Back...several attempts to log on today resulted in sqrll denials...I think Mike fixed that (Again...you da man).

For some reason it seems like some of us are treating the apparent weakening trend as a bad thing...hello...THIS IS STILL A MAJOR STORM. Someone (many) are going to see a whole world of hurt regardless...down to 105mph...that's A GOOD THING. The Bahamas are being ripped to shrederines, lets hope that doesn't happen to FL.

ATTM, who cares who got the track right as long as this storm is being weakened? I'd rather have the wrong track but the right wind speed. We may be witnessing a minor miracle. Don't jinx it (as if you could). Who wouldn't take a CAT II ATTM if given that option yesterday? This is a good thing...this weakening trend...everyone pray it lasts.

Someone is still going to see 10+" of rain and big time winds, but hopefully not along Charley's scale.

105+ MPH is not a joke, so this is not to make light of this storm...however...yesterday the experts were saying CAT IV at landfall...no way she ramps back up that high now...thank god...(she owes me).

STILL, everyone be safe and be smart...this just may back off enough to spare catastrophic damage...let's all pray it does...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

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AdmittedHacker
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Re: Radar [Re: PFSThunder]
      #23941 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:57 PM

Frances now has a concentric center of circulation approximately 75 nautical miles in diameter, rather than a true eye. After reviewing several different feeds and loops, I can detect no discernible movement at all. How long can it tread water in one place before upswelling begins to have an effect?

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alan
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OK I'll say it [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #23942 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:58 PM

Dynagel!

For those conspiracy theorists:

Charley grew too fast and too close to the US and was moving too fast for the Dynagel to take affect.

They Dynagel people knew Frances was coming, they stacked up on the stuff and were able to get enough stuff in it to tame the storm. After all, once again, a massive, long tracking storm dies a quick death that few saw coming right before it hit the U.S.

I knew it wouldn't take too long...well...now you get to explain it to every newbie who's going to ask "what's dynagel?" It was funny five years ago...but not right now

Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 03 2004 08:00 PM)


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Just a Thought [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #23943 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:00 PM

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/ba/04sep/index_thumb_short.html
This is an interesting page on the gulf stream. It seems to show the waters cooling too soon which leads me to believe at this moment that Frances will not have any more warm water to draw on soon. I hope in this case I am correct. Although I fear the reaction to the situation if people suddenly feel they have been erroneously asked to evacuate.

--------------------
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Cane Watcher
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Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: LI Phil]
      #23944 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:03 PM

Well said Phil, I agree totally with you. Lets not jinx the good luck that is going on now. I have family in the Bahamas (Nassau and Abaco). I know they are wishing they the weakened version of Frances.

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Terra
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Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #23945 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:04 PM

So, no change in the coordinates over the last three hours. Shouldn't that give the perfect opportunity for strengthening? Yet, the pressure is slightly higher once again.....

Ok, so as usual... I'm too busy in other windows to read the obvious posts right before mine.... oh well!

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill

Edited by Terra (Fri Sep 03 2004 08:08 PM)


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zacros
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Re: Just a Thought [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #23946 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:04 PM

Could the shallow water around the bahamas have anything to do with the significant decrease in hurricane strength (aside from the dynogel)? I know the shear and the dry air play a major role, but this storm seemed to be loosing strength prior to these taking there toll.

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AdmittedHacker
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Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: LI Phil]
      #23947 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:04 PM

Officially reduced to Cat 2 with 105 mph winds.

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DroopGB31
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Re: Just a Thought [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #23948 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:06 PM

Ok, Im giving up on predicting intensity for now. If you ask me since none of the hostile conditions are letting up I wouldnt be surprised if she just keeps weakening up until landfall. There is no eyewall plus windfields are spreading out. Hell, at this rate she'll be a TS by landfall lol

lol? I've got users PMing my a$$ asking me if their power goes out can they call me on the telephone to call in conditions...guess they don't care about everyone else.

Let's hope this landfalls as a TS! Jezus...think about those directly it Frances' path! I'm 1,500 miles away and I care.

Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 03 2004 08:11 PM)


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alan
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Re: OK I'll say it [Re: alan]
      #23949 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:07 PM

OK, li phil I'll explain.

Dynagel is an urban legend that a company in South Florida was developing. The legend was that the company would be able to release a gooey substance that would suck the moisture out of a hurricane, thus weakening the storm.

Dynagel is, in fact, an actual product. They use it to make jello.

Of course, this is one of many creative ideas people have thought of to stop a hurricane, ranging from use of nuclear weapons to a series of airhoses with holes placed at the bottom of the ocean to cause upwelling.

All of these systems have been discounted time and time again.

Edited by alan (Fri Sep 03 2004 08:09 PM)


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HCW
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Re: OK I'll say it [Re: alan]
      #23950 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:10 PM

It may even weaken further if it doesn't move .


Is anyone listening to Jim Williams show from Hurricanecity ?

http://www.hurricanecity.com/live.ram


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rickonboat
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will wonders never cease? [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #23951 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:10 PM

stalled....be interesting to see the forecasts over the next few days. Imagine the exodus of people....only to realize it is out there dying a slow death.

HOWEVER, nothing could be discounted...if it were in a stage where it was a cat 1, and had just increased to a cat 2...the board reaction would be more trepidation and fear...right?...

which is why I wonder if there is a natural time table to these things....which is to say...can they really sustain themselves as strong 4-5's very long. Wonder about that...

still think it has all the capacity to get stronger, and conversely...get weaker.

a waiting game...dumm dee dumm dummmm


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AdmittedHacker
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Re: Just a Thought [Re: DroopGB31]
      #23952 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:12 PM

Who was right or wrong with predictions is irrelevant... this continued weakening trend is a minor miracle and more than we ever could have hoped for. Everything else being equal, even if it does resume the projected path and regain strength, it is rebuilding from a lower intensity, which means reduced wind impact upon landfall. That's good news... now the slow forward speed and resultant heavy rainfall is another matter altogether...

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AgentB
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Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: LI Phil]
      #23953 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:19 PM

Phil you are absolutely right about the weakening. Remember everybody the difference between 140mph and 105mph is not just 35mph. It is an exponential difference, and can mean the difference between major structural collapses and *only* roof damage and trees coming down(though that's not insignificant either). We can only hope that this weakening trend continues. Though that also seems to be a point of debate. I tend to side with those that believe this storm won't restrengthen to the point it was earlier today. My reasoning is that it takes a huge amount of energy to power a storm this large to the levels it once was at. Right now, being over the Bahamas(land/shallow albeit warm water) and being very close to Florida cuts down how much "power" is available to it. While the back half of the storm might be over water, the front half will be coming apart with every mile it moves further inland. With Charley that storm was small, easier to "power", had nothing but warm water and moisture laden air around it, and no land interaction between Cuba and Florida. That is why it got so powerful so fast. I had a feeling as we got closer to today and tomorrow that this storm would indeed stall out. It's reached the ridge, will interact with it a bit, then start to move "down it" to the west. Currently, with its latitude it's about even with North Miami Beach. I think we'll see the same more west than north movement Frances has exhibited for most of her life in the next few hours, but not before she drifts a bit closer to SE Florida.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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AdmittedHacker
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Re: will wonders never cease? [Re: rickonboat]
      #23954 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:21 PM

It's official. The NHC position reported at 5:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. is exactly the same: 25.9N 77.5W. No movement.

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HMY
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Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: AgentB]
      #23955 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:22 PM

So, does this mean Frances will sit, sputter and die down. Or are we in Florida still in for it??? I am so confused at this point.

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SoonerShawn
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Re: will wonders never cease? [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #23956 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:25 PM

A SW move? I don't know but looking at the radar I would say it at least looks like it did. Of course sometimes radar loops can be deceiving. You be the judge.

ShawnS


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DroopGB31
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Re: Just a Thought [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #23957 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:25 PM

LI Phil, No disrespect but you took my post the wrong way or maybe I just worded it wrong. I'd be more then happy for the folks in Fl. if this weakened further to a Cat. 1 or TS. I think its funny that she was forecasted to be a Cat 4 at landfall remember the quote from the NHC a few days ago "I cant emphasize enough how powerful this storm is, If there is something out there to weaken it, we havent seen it." Talk about a major bust. So my apologies LI Phil, I know this is still a serious threat, and that isnt something to laugh about. I didnt mean any harm in my post, just worded it wrong. Could be Im not thinking straight, I've had the flu for 2 days now and tracking Frances sure aint helping me. So my apologies Phil.

No apologies necessary...Alan just PMed me with a "similar" complaint. I need to relax...I know no one wants any monster storms hitting any landmasses. It just seems that us hurricane nuts (myself #1 fan) seem to get upset when they weaken...and if they could all harmllesslly spin fish that would be a good thing. It's just that when they threaten people (especially those we know), we kind of wish they'd fall apart henceforth. I'll lay off the snide remarks. Just don't make it like you sound disappointed if a CAT III starts to disintegrate...good deal?

Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 03 2004 08:30 PM)


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jaybythebay
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Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: HMY]
      #23958 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:28 PM

The winds maybe down but a slow moving hurricane can put down alot of rain. As Danny a min. hurricane(75mph) dump 25" of rain in parts of Mobile. So lower winds are GREAT but this slow motion is still bad.

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HCW
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Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: jaybythebay]
      #23959 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:29 PM

Quote:

The winds maybe down but a slow moving hurricane can put down alot of rain. As Danny a min. hurricane(75mph) dump 25" of rain in parts of Mobile. So lower winds are GREAT but this slow motion is still bad.





It was up to 47 inches of rain . I saw 31 here in Mobile county.

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

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AgentB
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Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: HMY]
      #23960 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:30 PM

Quote:

So, does this mean Frances will sit, sputter and die down. Or are we in Florida still in for it??? I am so confused at this point.




Until this storm makes landfall and weakens as it moves inland you CANNOT discount anything happening. The weakening seems to be a trend at this point because it has been happeneing for a few hours now. However, this system has been somewhat unpredictable for a lot of the time, and it could jump up somewhat in intensity. What I stated was my *opinion*(and we all know how those go...lol) that this storm probably would not restrenthen to the levels that it once was at. I believe that a storm this big, and this thing was/is huge, takes a lot of energy from the water and surrounding air to make it grow that large, maintain that intensity and move that fast(up to 18mph just a day or so ago). Once the "power" source gets lowered I believe the storm cannot help but weaken, and weaken fairly substantially. I liken it to a comparison between a muscle car and a regular family sedan. Say they both have the same amount of fuel in the tank. The muscle car will run out of gas earlier because it takes a heckuva lot more power/energy to move that versus the regular family sedan.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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Terra
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Re: will wonders never cease? [Re: rickonboat]
      #23961 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:32 PM

Quote:

which is why I wonder if there is a natural time table to these things....which is to say...can they really sustain themselves as strong 4-5's very long. Wonder about that...





Nature abhors a vacuum....

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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Rasvar
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Re: Just a Thought [Re: DroopGB31]
      #23963 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:33 PM

A stationary storm is something I do not want to see. Many differnt things can happen while stopped. Including a bit of house cleaning. While it is hard for a storm in Frances condition to spin back up, it is not impossible. At this point, I just want her to move and get on with it. The wait is worse then the actual event.

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spook
Unregistered




Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: jaybythebay]
      #23964 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:38 PM

I would say hooray if it contiues to weaken,i realize alot of time and money spent,but nothing compared to the costs of a cat.4 or 5.reminds me of lily,a cat 4 storm then died to cat2,in hours,but still alot of headaches for some people.

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Robert
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GRRR [Re: Rasvar]
      #23965 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:38 PM

I am at the end my rope here hanging and i cant touch the ground. Just get it the hell over with im not allowed out, i cant go and surf. Im locked up in my marina right now drinking a beer and they say its stalled.

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DroopGB31
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Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: HCW]
      #23966 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:39 PM

Good deal Phil, Im not dissapointed at all she's weakening, if my post came off sounding like that I didnt know it. But I know how ya feel, We wanna see the worst mother nature can bring, but when the worst comes our way, its not very fascinating anymore and gets personal.

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LI Phil
User


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Re: GRRR [Re: Robert]
      #23967 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:41 PM

Hey Robert,

I was wondering about the surf...TWC said all those who went out today got frustrated (maybe you can explain, undertoe, rip currents?) Went to Jones Beach (LI beach) today and while it was very rough, there didn't seem to be any swells or breakers...just little crests breaking right on shore. And there were those damn "clear" jellyfish which I abhor...how come this bad girl isn't creating good surf conditions (and I am being TOTALLY serious).

Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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southflahappygal
Unregistered




Re: Just a Thought [Re: Rasvar]
      #23968 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:45 PM

this killing time is killing me!!!!!

at least you'll die happy... -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Sep 03 2004 08:49 PM)


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Re: Just a Thought [Re: southflahappygal]
      #23969 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:52 PM

still think this will continue to weaken--as it stalls, it is upwelling cooler waters, and still fighting shear and dry air

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h2ocean
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Re: GRRR [Re: LI Phil]
      #23970 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:55 PM

Glad to see it weakening! Still not 100% it won't gather just a little more strength before coming in, but hopefully not. Here on Merritt Island the wind slowly picked up today and is currently gusting in the low to mid 30's. The forecast from the NWS office says gusts to 120 here tomorrow night - yikes! Glad to have hurricane shutters!

--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


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PFSThunder
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Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: DroopGB31]
      #23971 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:55 PM

Joe B. just finished talking on FOX. He gave two possible paths. One is a slow drift NW until it gets over the Grand Bahamas, inland to Cape Canaveral and a abrupt west track through Florida and then tracking NW again. The other is to hug the coast up to Jacksonville north. The stall now attributed to the high to the NE of Frances waiting to be built in to force a move to the west.

--------------------
Go Boilermakers


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Rabbit
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coincidence? [Re: Rabbit]
      #23972 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:56 PM

I just noticed that Ivan is looking and moving similar to Isabel last year in the same location and time of year, and they are both "I" names...

they don't have a lot in common. current motion or solution. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Sep 03 2004 09:20 PM)


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southflahappygal
Unregistered




Re: Just a Thought [Re: Rabbit]
      #23973 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:56 PM

Quote:

still think this will continue to weaken--as it stalls, it is upwelling cooler waters, and still fighting shear and dry air




Thats a welcome thought. I am only about 40 miles south of west palm beach. Have felt behind the eightball for days.
Thanks for all your posts everybody. They have helped educate me and passed some time


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BillD
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Re: GRRR [Re: LI Phil]
      #23974 - Fri Sep 03 2004 08:56 PM

In South Florida the beaches are all locked down. The police are not allowing anyone out there. All the barrier island bridges are blocked. There are also curfews in effect in the mandatory evacuation zones.

Bill


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gailmm
Unregistered




Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: spook]
      #23975 - Fri Sep 03 2004 09:00 PM

I couldn't agree more. As someone who feels like there's a bullseye on the roof of my house (Satellite Beach, barrier island, due east of Melbourne) I hope the freakin thing goes out in the ocean someplace and dies. And the evacs are a small price to pay considering what could have happened. Even if this thing landfalls a cat 1, there's no doubt in my mind that the evacs will have saved a life or two.

I want to thank all of you experts here. I am a lay person and have gotton great comfort from visiting here the last few days. The not knowing is so hard. This has really ignited my interest in weather, which was lurking in the background always, and I'll probably become a regular visitor in the future.

I know this isn't over and there could be more bad news coming, but for now its nice to savor the hope that we might actually get out of this thing with some missing shingles and broken tree limbs.


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LI Phil
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A cry out to our mets... [Re: BillD]
      #23976 - Fri Sep 03 2004 09:04 PM

Seriously...where are all of the mets (or near mets) on this board? Ed is probably trying to secure his premises & Jason must be on air...

Anyone (Rabbit, Scottsbv) want to take a shot at this? I'm being PMed by a bunch of users who want to know the threat and I'm afraid I can't respond (even if I have a met head's up) because they might take what I say as gospel...I have no idea (well, I have an idea, but not one I would advise people to evacuate on)..

So..please...anyone who can guide the boards...please do so!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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WXMAN RICHIE
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San Salvador [Re: gailmm]
      #23977 - Fri Sep 03 2004 09:05 PM

Bryan Norcross was just speaking with Max Mayfield. Max said last night winds on San Salvador Island were recorded at 152 mph when the anemometer blew away. WOW!!!!!

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

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centauratlas
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Weakening [Re: Terra]
      #23978 - Fri Sep 03 2004 09:10 PM

The weakening seems to be due to the dry air west and north-west of the storm which is being sucked in on the west side, which is why S. Fl has been seeing fewer rain bands than one might expect. Once that clears out a little more - ~ < 24 hours - if the storm is still over water it will have the potential to intensify.

The things I don't like about the official forecast tracks:
1. People tend to put to much faith in them, and then get hammered. This is not the NHC's fault, but a poor explanation by people presenting them.
2. The models could be split (as earlier today) with, for example, a group showing north and a group showing west. The official track (usually) averages those and presents a NW track. To me that is non-sensical: if no models project it is going in that direction, why average it to that? It is like saying "there are either 3 people in the room or 1 person in the room" and then projecting that there are 2 people in the room. Obviously all the modelling is full of error, but don't compound the error. One solution would be to keep the probablity graphics, but remove the center track, or perhaps don't make it a line of points track, but a wide path.

3. People also don't seem to appreciate the uncertainties, particularly with stalled or slow moving storms. For example, if Frances stalls out there for 24 horus, the assumptions showing it moving as projected today will have changed. So, people preparing based on that may be disappointed.

Edited by centauratlas (Fri Sep 03 2004 09:13 PM)


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Ashley.m
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Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: MikeC]
      #23979 - Fri Sep 03 2004 09:11 PM

This is a really scary thing for most people and it is for me to. My cousins live in Florida.. My mother just got off the telephone with them.. at that time my cousin told my mom that there windows are boarded up and his children had cabin fever already.. Im scared for all of them.. I send my love out to all the family's that have the same issue as mine do.. Good luck.

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GuppieGrouper
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Re: San Salvador [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #23980 - Fri Sep 03 2004 09:13 PM

That goes to show that even reconisance from an airplane can not predict what the land and surrounding water will do to wind. That is why the experts say to take the precautions as "IF" because Tornados can blow one house away and leave the one next to it standing. Wind speeds can be different everywhere and even next door to you. The information cited on air is a general trend not what every one is experiencing all at once.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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BillD
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Re: A cry out to our mets... [Re: LI Phil]
      #23981 - Fri Sep 03 2004 09:14 PM

Phil, got a lot of those on the board yesterday. Best advice to them is listen to their local TV stations and the NHC. Any evacuation now would be foolhardy, but if they do, evac local or don't evac. They told us here in Dade County, don't move after 7:00 PM, but that is who these folks should be listening to, not you or any of us.

Bill


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HanKFranK
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add some confusion [Re: Rabbit]
      #23982 - Fri Sep 03 2004 09:14 PM

situation is becoming very complex. pressure has been essentially stable all day, but the expanding windfield and stall of the storm is throwing everything into ambiguity. if the storm spins down, the deep layer steering should kick in and take the system further west.. of course the models that forecast the system to up towards ga/sc a couple days ago were exhibiting a stall at times. Frances associated shortwave ridge has stuck it's nose down into the nw caribbean and is contributing to it's own sheared situation.
i'm just not sure how the storm will respond to this.. as the storm spins down in a regime of conflicting steering.. there are lots of things that can happen.
HF 0114z04september


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BillD
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Re: San Salvador [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #23983 - Fri Sep 03 2004 09:20 PM

That must mean that they have actually heard from someone on San Salvador, up until now there had been no contact at all, not even ham radio contact. Same with Cat Island.

Bill


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LI Phil
User


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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: add some confusion [Re: HanKFranK]
      #23984 - Fri Sep 03 2004 09:20 PM

All y'all...can't moderate (yeah for some of you) any more tonight....but will be back tomorrow. Then, my one and only vacation will also coincide with France' landfall. I will be back tomorrow, but to those who can not be..god speed.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
The long wait [Re: centauratlas]
      #23985 - Fri Sep 03 2004 09:21 PM

If you are complaining that the storm is taking forever to get here, just wait and see how long it is going to take to get rid of it. Remember, most of the storm is on the east side now, so it will seem like forever to get rid of the storm once you get on that side. At 4 mph, you could walk from the Bahamas to Florida faster.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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BillD
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Re: The long wait [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #23986 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:08 PM

At this rate, it won't get anywhere until next week some time.

Seems to still be stalled. And the SW side is almost non existent, which is why we are getting no weather at all here in Miami.

I am happy with the reduced strength, I am not happy it has stalled. As others have posted, this can be good and can be bad, and I'm worried about the bad.

Bill


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Frank P
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Florida residents.... don't underestimate storm surge [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #23987 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:08 PM

Even in a weakened state Frances has a relatively large wind field and is capable of pushing a massive amount of surge where she goes inland...

case in point... a couple of years ago Isador hit the MS coast with sustained winds of about 60/65 mph and had very little convection, basically just a large strong LLC with very little convection... but it had a very large wind field, and at one time near the Yucatan it was a major storm before weakening and the traveling across the entire GOM from Mexico to MS.. but it never regained its intensity..... eventually it went inland near the MS/LS line but she put up a tremendous surge... totally unexpected, we were expecting 4-5 max.... emergency evacuations were called for as the surge was coming in the city..

the surge was about 8.5 to 9 feet above sea level in front of my house....which was the highest surge in Biloxi since Camille (22 feet at my house), think about that... Isador's surge was higher than Elena's (1985 - 8 feet) and Georges' (98 -8 feet) surges, of which both the eyes passed over the city of Biloxi..... these surges were measured across the street from my house on the beach.... surges were perhaps higher in other areas.. note Georges did put a tremendous storm surge in Pascagoula, which was in the right quadrant of the storm... probably in the 10-12 range.....

so I expect Frances to put up a tremendous surge as it makes landfall, regardless if its a Cat 1 or 2 or whatever..

something to consider.....

;


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Alex.K
Unregistered




recon? [Re: Frank P]
      #23988 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:12 PM

Good post about the storm surge

Is there any new recon data from Frances recently?


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Nassau, Bahamas [Re: Frank P]
      #23989 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:14 PM

As of 8 pm, Nassau in the Bahamas has had 21 straight hours with winds gusting over 50 mph. Peak gust 110 mph. They have not even been in /near the eye.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: recon? [Re: Alex.K]
      #23990 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:15 PM

last recon I have is the 2307Z

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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: recon? [Re: Frank P]
      #23991 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:48 PM

New location out for 11:00 update. Back on projected track. 26.1N, 77.8 W. Continuing WNW.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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tracking the center of Frances [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #23992 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:52 PM

If you're interested in tracking the center it is showing up well on the Miami Composite Reflectivity long range radar loop... it shows the center better than the Base Reflectivity long range...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.kamx.shtml

Interesting GFDL shift more west, to points between Mobile and Pensacola... its the outlier

and no Rick, this will not be the big one for you... this time..


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teal61
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Re: recon? [Re: Frank P]
      #23993 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:56 PM

Just checked on the Texas A@M site and no new recon there, it's usually as up to date as you can get so I don't know whats up with recon tonight. I think she's still a little east of the 11pm based upon the Miami radar.

I really need to shut this down for tonight and get to bed, but It's hard to pull away from the computer. I'm flying up to Jackson in the morning and heading north to the "big game" tomorrow night. I'm gonna be having withdrawals not having a computer to look at for 24 hours.


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


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Loc: Sebastian, FL
What an Excellent Model [Re: MikeC]
      #23994 - Fri Sep 03 2004 10:58 PM

What a great model for the complexities of hurricane forecasting Frances has been. On Wednesday before school was cancelled, I talked with my students about the types of conditions that can cause a hurricane to strengthen/weaken. I hope some of them have access to TV's wherever they are riding out the storm so that they can see the causes for the dramatic changes we have seen with Frances today. We also talked about how the forward movement of the hurricane can affect flooding. Unfortunately that aspect has me a little nervous. The problem with Florida is there is nowhere for 8-10 inches of rain to go, much less 15-20 inches! The comments about a possibly large storm surge even with a weakened storm is news that is also unsettling. What factors would contribute to such a large surge? I thought the surge was whipped up by the high winds :?:

--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08


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Rasvar
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Re: What an Excellent Model [Re: cjzydeco]
      #23995 - Sat Sep 04 2004 01:33 PM

still up?

Ahh, guess it is back up and running.

Edited by Rasvar (Sat Sep 04 2004 01:34 PM)


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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Posts: 571
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And now back to Frances [Re: Rasvar]
      #23996 - Sat Sep 04 2004 01:41 PM

Looks like recon was really unable to find some strong surface winds. Only found 50Kt at the surface; but this thing is so big, it does not seem to matter.

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andy1tom
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Re: And now back to Frances [Re: Rasvar]
      #23997 - Sat Sep 04 2004 03:04 PM

glad to see the board up and going..

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EKH2004
Unregistered




Re: And now back to Frances [Re: andy1tom]
      #23998 - Sat Sep 04 2004 03:09 PM

yes...the best info comes from this board I hope that everyone realizes it is up and going

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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist


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glad board is back up... [Re: andy1tom]
      #23999 - Sat Sep 04 2004 03:10 PM

Frances is just sitting there....huge 80 mile wide eyewall...

wonder what the forecasters are thinking now?


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palmetto
Verified CFHC User


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Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: And now back to Frances [Re: andy1tom]
      #24000 - Sat Sep 04 2004 03:14 PM

Here in Tallahassee, we're alternating between overcast and sunny, and judging by the sat pictures, we're starting to see our first taste of Frances. According to the NWS, the wind is NE at 13mph, and the pressure is at 1014. I'm seeing more wind out of my window than I did when Bonnie made landfall nearby, definitely. Starting to worry about the branches that hang over the roof of my apartment, and considering going to get some sandbags to put in front of the sliding glass door in case runoff from the high school playing fields right next to my apartment decides to get up that far.

I'm starting to get nervous, and I'm not likely to get as much of the storm as those of you further south in the state. My prayers are with all of you.


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StormHound
Weather Guru


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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: glad board is back up... [Re: rickonboat]
      #24001 - Sat Sep 04 2004 03:15 PM

Quote:

Frances is just sitting there....huge 80 mile wide eyewall...

wonder what the forecasters are thinking now?




Probably the same thing I'm thinking. Can we get on with it?

Maybe Frances was waiting for flhurricane.com to come back up. Thanks guys again for your efforts on this site! I've been lost all morning.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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Jason Siegel
Registered User


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Re: tracking the center of Frances [Re: Frank P]
      #24002 - Sat Sep 04 2004 03:18 PM

The storm has completely stopped! Anyone have any idea when it will be focued around Orlando? They've already canceled school for last Friday. We were out 6 days during/after Charley...

--------------------
100% of store proceeds donated to American Red Cross Disaster Relief Fund
Frances Store
Charley Store


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


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Report from East Orlando [Re: Jason Siegel]
      #24003 - Sat Sep 04 2004 03:21 PM

2nd squall just went through--sustained winds of approx. 30mph for 2-3 minutes, with a gust of about 40mph.

I was unable to post through Charley--we saw 80mph for about 30 minutes with gusts to 100mph. I'll try to give comparisons as the day goes on.

Edited by clyde w. (Sat Sep 04 2004 03:22 PM)


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Hurricaned
Verified CFHC User


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Re: tracking the center of Frances [Re: Jason Siegel]
      #24004 - Sat Sep 04 2004 03:21 PM

I am interested in information about Orlando as well!

Quote:

The storm has completely stopped! Anyone have any idea when it will be focued around Orlando? They've already canceled school for last Friday. We were out 6 days during/after Charley...




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HMY
Unregistered




Re: tracking the center of Frances [Re: Jason Siegel]
      #24005 - Sat Sep 04 2004 03:22 PM

Could this go on for days? I'm in Sebring, and it's cloudy and "breezy", very little rain if any. Power has been off and on a bunch of times. Waiting for a big one to knock it out for good, as our grids were only patched after Charley. Very bored at this point.

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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Orlando [Re: Hurricaned]
      #24006 - Sat Sep 04 2004 03:26 PM

Quote:

I am interested in information about Orlando as well





This second rainband was not nearly as intense as the 1st one that went through around 11am. Winds at OIA gusted to 54mph then.
Right now, in Casselberry which is 20 miles N of Orlando, we are getting ready for a 3rd rain band...which on radar looks to be the most intense so far with the storm.
So far, there hasn't been any damage....one large limb from a tree damagede by Charley has fallen into my backyard.
I'll try to keep posting updates as long as power remains.

--Lou


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tomm4567
Unregistered




Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: MikeC]
      #24008 - Sat Sep 04 2004 03:32 PM

This is getting bad i mean the storm has stalled and the storm could regain strength and then make landfall

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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
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Loc: EC Florida
SW Seminole County [Re: recmod]
      #24009 - Sat Sep 04 2004 03:35 PM

First rainband came through around 11:30 or so, the winds got strong (gusts to around 45 probably) and some of the trees in our backyard were bending quite a bit. I can only imagine what the early morning hours may bring.

The squall also dumped quite a bit of rain in the 10 minutes that it was over us.

More later...


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Mark Bendiksen
Registered User


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Posts: 2
Re: SW Seminole County [Re: Kevin]
      #24010 - Sat Sep 04 2004 03:47 PM

The Weather Channel is reporting that it appears as though Frances is once again moving. Hopefully they're right.

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Hurricaned
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 14
Re: Orlando [Re: recmod]
      #24011 - Sat Sep 04 2004 03:51 PM

Recmod, truly appreciated! I'll keep looking for your posts.

Quote:

This second rainband was not nearly as intense as the 1st one that went through around 11am. Winds at OIA gusted to 54mph then.
Right now, in Casselberry which is 20 miles N of Orlando, we are getting ready for a 3rd rain band...which on radar looks to be the most intense so far with the storm.
So far, there hasn't been any damage....one large limb from a tree damagede by Charley has fallen into my backyard.
I'll try to keep posting updates as long as power remains.

--Lou




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Kruz
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 16
South Jog! [Re: Hurricaned]
      #24012 - Sat Sep 04 2004 03:55 PM

One of the local weatherwoman had the last jog ot the south???!!
Anyone else hear this?

--------------------
Dunnellon, FL


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dawn
Unregistered




Re: South Jog! [Re: Kruz]
      #24013 - Sat Sep 04 2004 03:57 PM

I heard that earlier on nbc6 . Haven't heard it again.

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alan
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
Re: South Jog! [Re: dawn]
      #24014 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:01 PM

In Orlando, second squall line justwent through. Wind was stronger for this one in Apopka than the first one this morning. Knocked power out briefly.

Reports from Orlando include a large section around Conway without power already.

Also, 22 foot waves at the bouy 20 miles off port canaveral. the wave heights aren't being recorded anymore at that bouy. The highest at the bouy 120 miles out was 30 feet.

Edited by alan (Sat Sep 04 2004 04:05 PM)


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Alex.K
Unregistered




Re: South Jog! [Re: dawn]
      #24015 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:03 PM

Has anyone seen any new recon data for the storm?

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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re:ABC News Now has live FL feed [Re: MikeC]
      #24016 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:03 PM

If you have access to the digital tv channels (HDTV) ABC has a secondary channel called ABC News Now which was put up to cover the Political Conventions.

It's now broadcasting a live feed from Miami ABC channel 10. They've got reporters up and down the coast w/ live reports and even reports from one of the Bahama Islands.

We don't have cable, (we're getting digital over the air) so no TWC, CNN etc, and we're far away so no local 24 hour stuff.

Lots of radar and other info.

'shana in Austin

--------------------
"If the pen is mightier than the sword and a picture is worth a thousand words, is a camera a weapon of mass destruction? "


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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist


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if it lingers long enough.... [Re: dawn]
      #24017 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:03 PM

it might get stronger. However, the large eyewall will prevent the winds speeds from getting too fast, I think...

The jog south is probably just an illusion, and merely a "rebuilding" phase of the hurricane gaining in intensity.

If it linger through Florida....a terrible rain even. Ought to refill the Everglades, I suppose...


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Kevin
Weather Master


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Loc: EC Florida
2nd major squall (SW Seminole County) [Re: Kevin]
      #24018 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:03 PM

Another squall just rolled through here about 10 minutes ago. It was accompanied by heavy rain and 45-50 mph wind gusts, perhaps a little more intense than the first squall. This particular band has a very impressive radar signature.

It seems that things are starting to go downhill here somewhat. Frances is looking better as well.


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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist


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Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Re: South Jog! [Re: alan]
      #24019 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:04 PM

Ormond Beach has sustained winds 28 MPH with gusts. No rain yet, but I can see it to the south, over Daytona.
Some debris that was still in the trees from Charley is falling. Some power outages in parts of the City. Beachside, the wind is gusting to 40+ MPH, roofs damaged by Charley are starting come apart.


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MrCanard
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 1
Loc: Melbourne, Fl.
Re: South Jog! [Re: Kruz]
      #24020 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:05 PM

The Mrs. just came into the room and she said she heard to the west.
I live about 1 1/2 miles SE of kmlb.
So far we lost the aluminum roof over the car port it didn't help that the boy backed into and broke one of the uprights. And we've lost a couple of shingles off the north face of the roof. Not too bad for a 105 year old house.
Charlie


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Hurric
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: tomm4567]
      #24021 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:08 PM

Minimum Cat 1 conditions here in Port Saint Lucie ,been this way for hours. I can't believe power is on. Keeps flickering off . I will post more if I can.
Hurric


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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


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Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
Re: South Jog! [Re: MrCanard]
      #24022 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:10 PM

Looks like it is barely moving and if at all a little wnw. We have winds gusting 60-70 mph. The NWS just said we have a feeder band heading this way with 80 mph. We have lost power a few times but it came back on. I am guessing we won't have it much longer as more bands are headed this way.

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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: South Jog! [Re: Kruz]
      #24023 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:10 PM

No...Just look at the long range radar loop from Melbourne...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml

It's very obvious there has been no southward drift. The eye DOES appear to be tightening up...and nearly stationary. If anything, I can detect a POSSIBLE very slow NW drift beginning. But, this is difficult to ascertain since the eye structure continues to evolve.

As for that 3rd rainband coming through the Orlando area (see my previous post)....that was by far the most intense. The rain was torrential for about 15 minutes with very high winds. We are now back to a breezy situation with light drizzle....the sky remains fairly dark and onimous. I have another large tree limb lying on the remains of my fence (damaged heavily by Charley).

The power went out for a few minutes, but has returned.

More posts to come, power permitting.

--Lou


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Dawn
Unregistered




Re: South Jog! [Re: alan]
      #24024 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:11 PM

Power has flickered here a few times ( Coconut Creek , 1 mile southwest of Boca) We shuttered the house except the sliding glass door downstairs. What a view! Trees bending sideways in the sustained wind.

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Hurric
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: Hurric]
      #24025 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:11 PM

A lot of damage reports, you guys probably hereing more than me. Worst is no end in site for this storm ,seems stalled areas along coast from me martin ,Palm Beach apear to be getting it worse than here in south Saint Lucie county.
Losing Avocado tree roots moving.
Hurric


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Dawn
Unregistered




Re: if it lingers long enough.... [Re: rickonboat]
      #24026 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:13 PM

They're reporting possible cat 3 at landfall. nbc6.net has a live feed.

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tikibar
Unregistered




Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: Hurric]
      #24027 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:18 PM

eye appears to be reforming inside the NE side of the 60 mile eye and much tighter.
Norcross just reported HH plane found winds at 116 on the north side. Hinted that it might be upgraded to 3 again.

Reports of a KMart partially ripped open in PSL(Port St Lucie)
Could be a tornado did it!

Just my observations-I am not a met, nor do I pretend to be one.


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Casselberry FL at 3:25pm [Re: recmod]
      #24028 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:18 PM Attachment (316 downloads)

Here's a pic I took from my house in Casselberry with the last rainband at about 3:25pm

--Lou


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Hurric
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: tikibar]
      #24029 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:21 PM

I live about two miles from that Kmart in port St Lucie ,keep posting storm info guys need the board input. think center is about 50-65 miles se of me. at least the edge of it.
Hurric


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Alex.K
Unregistered




Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: tikibar]
      #24030 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:22 PM

Quote:

.
Norcross just reported HH plane found winds at 116 on the north side. Hinted that it might be upgraded to 3 again.
.




Is that 116 mph or knots. Id assume mph


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Hurricaned
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 14
Re: Casselberry FL at 3:25pm [Re: recmod]
      #24031 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:22 PM

Looks like what I remember of Charlie.

Recmod, your posts are greatly appreciated. Please keep them coming. I'm especially interested in your's.

Quote:

Here's a pic I took from my house in Casselberry with the last rainband at about 3:25pm

--Lou




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tsunami
Unregistered




Miami, Fl conditions [Re: recmod]
      #24032 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:25 PM

Conditions in Miami-Dade have been progressively getting windier and windier throughout the morning and afternoon.

Generally 30-35mph sustained, although 40mph at times. Maximum wind gust in my area was 53mph.

About 0.5" of rain so far. Hasn't rained for hours here.

Carlos


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tikibar
Unregistered




Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: Hurric]
      #24033 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:28 PM

Re: that KMart...
Heard two reports now...One said it was the one in PSL....the other said it was in Ft Pierce. Will try to confirm location.


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lisa33811j
Unregistered




Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: tikibar]
      #24034 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:35 PM

I live in Lakeland and we are on either our 3rd or 4th rain band - gusty winds but no more than 25 mph so far.

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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


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Loc:
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: tikibar]
      #24035 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:37 PM

Glad the site is back up. I miss it when it's down.
Reporting from Apopka, Florida.
Squalls coming through more frequently. I think indicating that Frances if moving NorthWestward.
Power still on. Looking for a looooonnngg night of Cane watching and riding it out.

My best to everyone in the path. Hang on !!!!


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tikibar
Unregistered




Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: tikibar]
      #24036 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:48 PM

116 noted by Norcross was MPH, not knts

KMart referenced is confirmed Ft Pierce location


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Larry Lawver
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Loc: Oviedo (Seminole Cty) FL
Re: Casselberry FL at 3:25pm [Re: recmod]
      #24037 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:50 PM

We are in Oviedo, about ten miles east of Lou in Seminole County. We have had two squalls, during the 11:00am and 2:00pm hours, both brief. At 4:46pm, we have been in bright sunshine with a light breeze for fifteen minutes!

Thanks for all of the very useful posts here. You're helping to keep us sane as we wait!

Regards,

Larry and Leslee


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Jason Siegel
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
Re: Casselberry FL at 3:25pm [Re: Larry Lawver]
      #24038 - Sat Sep 04 2004 04:52 PM

CNN is already reporting 1.5 million Floridians without power. And the hurricane hasn't even come ashore yet! Wow...

--------------------
100% of store proceeds donated to American Red Cross Disaster Relief Fund
Frances Store
Charley Store


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Re: Casselberry FL at 3:25pm [Re: Jason Siegel]
      #24039 - Sat Sep 04 2004 05:23 PM

Latest pressure down to 959mb.

ShawnS

P.S. Please everyone be safe! I'm thinking about you!


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 185
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #24040 - Sat Sep 04 2004 05:24 PM

Glad to see the site back up, this place is great.

Frances has moved more west than north from 2AM to 2PM. She's moved .5 degrees north and 1.0 degrees west. Her current position puts her off the coast, between West Palm and Hobe Sobe. Here in Ormond I still haven't seen any rain from this system, though I know it's on the way. Even the wind, which has picked up this afternoon isn't too bad at all either. While it does appear to be stationary I think it's still drifting just a little north of due west. We'll see with the 5pm update exactly how much, if at all, it's moved from 2pm. To me it looks like the eye wall, or what's left of it, is just off the coast of the Martin/Palm Beach County border. Personally I see it drifting onshore just north of West Palm. Also, those deep reds that were surrounding the innercircle not too long ago have dissipated and all I see are oranges, yellows and blues. While it may strengthen a bit because it's stationary I still don't see it getting anywhere to what it once was. Obviously this is just my opinion, as anything can happen. Phil feel free to ask any questions about the waves as I've grown up surfing and have a decent handle on what goes on out there in the ocean.

Update-As of 5pm Frances HAS drifted on a due west track. She moved 0 degrees north and .3 degrees west. More drifting like that and she will make landfall right along the Palm Beach/Martin County border.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 185
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Casselberry FL at 3:25pm [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #24041 - Sat Sep 04 2004 05:26 PM

Quote:

Latest pressure down to 959mb.

ShawnS

P.S. Please everyone be safe! I'm thinking about you!




Don't know where you heard that as the 5pm NHC update has pressure at 962mb.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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alan
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
Great example of an eye crossing [Re: Dawn]
      #24042 - Sat Sep 04 2004 05:34 PM

Checking out the weather station at the tip of grand Bahama.
Wind speeds went from 65 knts at 8 a.m. to 8 knots at 12 p.m. and now back up to 33 knts.


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: tikibar]
      #24043 - Sat Sep 04 2004 05:34 PM

So glad the boards back up. Hope you guys down there say safe. Dont mean to scare ya, but she's just begun. You guys have at least 8 to 10 or even more hours of hurricane force winds. Stay safe and keep us updated, but keep safe, thats the number one priority. Looks like the folks in the Central and Western Fl Panhandle should pay attention as we may have a strong landfalling TS/minimal hurricane Labor Day. Anybody have any thoughts on that?

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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 441
Loc: Georgia Tech
pressure at 959mb [Re: AgentB]
      #24044 - Sat Sep 04 2004 05:35 PM

the last hurricane recon report pegged the pressure at 959mb at 2041Z

I like how they refuse to call the thing that looks like an eye, instead calling it: "BANDING FEATURE 60NM DIAMETER"



Mark


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Re: Casselberry FL at 3:25pm [Re: AgentB]
      #24045 - Sat Sep 04 2004 05:36 PM

Got that off of the NHC site. It looks like it was about 15 min. before the 5:00 report came out so I would guess they didn't have time to put it in . It should be in the 8:00 report,though.

ShawnS


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 185
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: pressure at 959mb [Re: Bloodstar]
      #24046 - Sat Sep 04 2004 05:38 PM

Quote:

the last hurricane recon report pegged the pressure at 959mb at 2041Z

Mark




Ah, guess that came out about 4mins after the 5pm update(2037). Thanks for the info.

--------------------
Check the Surf

Edited by AgentB (Sat Sep 04 2004 05:39 PM)


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Casselberry FL at 3:25pm [Re: AgentB]
      #24047 - Sat Sep 04 2004 05:39 PM

Vortex Data Message

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT12 KNHC 042041
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 04/2041Z
B. 26 DEG 56 MIN N
79 DEG 10 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2724 M
D. 80 KT
E. 323 DEG 39 NM
F. 054 DEG 96 KT
G. 320 DEG 032 NM
H. 959 MB
I. 11 C/ 3057 M
J. 15 C/ 3062 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/07
O. 1 /1 NM
P. AF980 3006A Frances OB 03
MAX FL WIND 96 KT NW QUAD 2031Z. BANDING FEATURE 60NM DIAMETER


There's the 959 pressure

--Lou


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Casselberry FL at 5:40pm [Re: recmod]
      #24048 - Sat Sep 04 2004 05:41 PM

A tornado warning has just been issued for Seminole County...where I live. Another feeder band is getting ready to roll in from Volusia County. Weather officials notice a vorticity in the band and have issued the warning for us. As of right now, the band is still just north of me. I am experiencing a light rain and gusty winds....nothing severe at this point...

--Lou


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Vortex translated by new comp program... [Re: recmod]
      #24049 - Sat Sep 04 2004 05:44 PM

Storm Frances: Observed By AF #980
Storm #06 in Atlantic Ocean
Date/Time of Recon Report: Saturday, September 04, 2004 15:41:00
Position of the center: 26 56' N 79 10' W
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2724m (Normal: 3011)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 80KT
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 39nm (44.849999999999994miles) From Center At Bearing 323
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 96KT (110.4mph) From 054
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 032nm (36.8miles) From Center At Bearing 320
Minimum pressure: 959mb (28.32in)
Eye Wall Was < 50% Closed
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): Surface 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 1nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 185
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Casselberry FL at 3:25pm [Re: recmod]
      #24050 - Sat Sep 04 2004 05:45 PM

Quote:

Vortex Data Message

There's the 959 pressure

--Lou




Thanks. I just found it too. Some strong winds just started pushing through my location here in Ormond. Looks like it's about to start pouring here as well.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay
Re: Casselberry FL at 5:40pm [Re: recmod]
      #24051 - Sat Sep 04 2004 05:47 PM

We are holed up in a hotel on Tampa Bay and just had a feeder band hit us. It tore off one of the covers on the air vents on the roof below us. I can not imagine what it is like where our house is. I hope everyone is water tight.!

--------------------
Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08


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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
Re: Casselberry FL at 5:40pm [Re: DMFischer]
      #24052 - Sat Sep 04 2004 05:53 PM

From the MLB NWS office at 5:30...can't believe we still have power here...wind is much stronger here than during Charlie and we lost power then. Guess it is a matter of time.

...WIND IMPACTS...
HURRICANE Frances IS NEARLY STATIONARY 50 MILES EAST OF PALM
BEACH. GUSTS 70 TO 100 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER INDIAN RIVER...ST.
LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES. TREES DOWN...SEVERE DAMAGE TO MOBILE
HOMES...ROOFS OFF LARGE BUILDINGS...INCLUDING CAR DEALERSHIPS AND
DEPARTMENT STORES IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES.

THIS EVENING STRONG RAINBANDS WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY NEAR MELBOURNE BEACH TO PALM BAY TO BLUE CYPRESS LAKE
AND FORT DRUM. THESE BANDS MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 65 TO 75 MPH. MANY REPORTS OF TREES BEING UPROOTED AND
SIGNS BEING BLOWN DOWN HAVE ALSO BEEN RECEIVED. POWER POLES ALONG
STATE ROUTE A-1-A NEAR SOUTH PATRICK HOUSING HAVE TOPPLED OR WERE
LEANING HEAVILY. DAMAGE TO WINDOWS AND GLASS DOORS HAVE BEEN REPORTED
SO FAR TO A FEW COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS ALONG A-1-A IN IN SATELLITE
BEACH AND INDIAN HARBOR BEACH.

--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


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Laurie(England)
Unregistered




Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: MikeC]
      #24053 - Sat Sep 04 2004 06:06 PM

Hello...we in England are thinking of you all at this time...take care...be safe...best wishes to you all...Laurie

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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 130
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Re: San Salvador [Re: BillD]
      #24054 - Sat Sep 04 2004 06:11 PM

Quote:

That must mean that they have actually heard from someone on San Salvador, up until now there had been no contact at all, not even ham radio contact. Same with Cat Island.

Bill




I have been hearing from the Bahamas via Sat Phones since yesterday, including San Sal and Cat.

Please see my posts in the "Disaster Forum". I had been posting regularly but there didn't seem to be any interest in Bahama damage so I quit posting.

-Bev

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: Laurie(England)]
      #24055 - Sat Sep 04 2004 06:16 PM

Quote:

Hello...we in England are thinking of you all at this time...take care...be safe...best wishes to you all...Laurie




Thanks

We had tornado reports near Apopka, don't know if any damage or not.

We're in for a long night and day tomorow


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DutchPeter
Unregistered




Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: Laurie(England)]
      #24058 - Sat Sep 04 2004 06:20 PM

I'm watching it al unfold from the Netherlands.....Frances is front page news here also.....keep everything in one piece please !

Melbourne Doppler Radar is turning scary

Take care you out there !


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Kruz
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: DutchPeter]
      #24059 - Sat Sep 04 2004 06:23 PM

Tanx for all your over seas prayers!

--------------------
Dunnellon, FL

Edited by Kruz (Sat Sep 04 2004 06:24 PM)


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HMY
Unregistered




Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: DutchPeter]
      #24060 - Sat Sep 04 2004 06:27 PM

Must be the calm before the storm in Sebring, finally getting a misty rain and still breezy. She's moving in though, huh?

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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
From East Orlando [Re: MikeC]
      #24061 - Sat Sep 04 2004 06:32 PM

I'm out by UCF, moderate rain for the last 30 minutes, breezy--but calling it windy would be pushing it. Will report in again as things deteriorate.

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gailmm
Unregistered




Re: Casselberry FL at 5:40pm [Re: h2ocean]
      #24062 - Sat Sep 04 2004 06:36 PM

Keep posting, So. Merrit Island. House in Satellite Beach and I'm so worried about it. Appreciate your posts. I'd rather know-even if it's bad- than this damnable waiting and watching.

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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Re: From East Orlando [Re: clyde w.]
      #24063 - Sat Sep 04 2004 06:36 PM

Maybe picked up some forward speed? Not much, but just maybe. Any kind of movement would be good news right now.

ShawnS


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DutchPeter
Unregistered




Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: HMY]
      #24064 - Sat Sep 04 2004 06:37 PM

I believe that what is considered to be the inner rainband is just moving up the coast by West Palm Beach. I tried to get some windreadings out there, but several weatherstations are not reporting......anymore......does that mean...... ?

Peter, Holland


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Hurricaned
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Re: From East Orlando [Re: clyde w.]
      #24065 - Sat Sep 04 2004 06:37 PM

Clyde W., how would you describe the earlier weather. I life near UCF. Actually near Waterford Lakes.

Please keep posting what you observe! :-)

Quote:

I'm out by UCF, moderate rain for the last 30 minutes, breezy--but calling it windy would be pushing it. Will report in again as things deteriorate.




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hntr74
Unregistered




Re: From East Orlando [Re: clyde w.]
      #24066 - Sat Sep 04 2004 06:39 PM

WOW, is it true the eye is 70-80 miles wide? With it moving at snails pace its going to make it a long wait out My father and a crew of 48 will be down their with WE Energies from Wisconsin to assist in restoring power...Are Prayers are with all of you...

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Frances near landfall [Re: MikeC]
      #24068 - Sat Sep 04 2004 06:41 PM

Not really much to add on the Frances front. Landfall looks like it should come sometime in the wee morning hours, probably at or very close to the current intensity of 105mph and just a bit north of West Palm Beach. Satellite representation has gotten a bit better, but not strikingly so.

The differences between the NHC and HPC from two days ago are starting to play out in terms of what the storm does after landfall. NHC, going off of the models, had been calling for a path over land; HPC, going off of actual analysis and understanding the errors in what the models were analyzing, called for a more westerly path that would skirt almost the entire Fl. panhandle. Now, the NHC has shifted towards that as well. (And yes, I've canceled plans to chase Frances in the panhandle.)

In any event, rainfall amounts are going to be torrential with this storm - though TWC is a bit out to lunch in suggesting flooding rains in Maine with this one by Wednesday. It'll still be near north Florida on Tuesday.

Ivan continues to get better organized, with an eye-type feature appearing earlier today. I threw out a path over Hispaniola yesterday to some friends, and that may well play out in five days. It's one to watch by the middle of the week as it approaches the islands. They're sending a G-IV out there on Monday to sample the environment, even before an actual recon gets out there, which I think is a very good thing.

More if conditions warrant...otherwise, it's time to hunker down and watch the storm as it crosses the state.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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schmoo
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 12
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: DutchPeter]
      #24069 - Sat Sep 04 2004 06:41 PM

is it heading due west now?

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DutchPeter
Unregistered




Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: schmoo]
      #24071 - Sat Sep 04 2004 06:47 PM

Due west, with a hint north...

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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: schmoo]
      #24080 - Sat Sep 04 2004 07:27 PM

Anybody have reports from Indian River County? Looks like the worst is heading in there over the next few hours.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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storm 1
Unregistered




Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: DutchPeter]
      #24085 - Sat Sep 04 2004 07:37 PM

press down to951 from 962 11mb drop look out.

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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: storm 1]
      #24109 - Sat Sep 04 2004 08:17 PM

Just ran out and checked out a neighbors house while they are evacuated. The wind is getting stronger here (central Brevard) and the rain is picking up. I saw a few small trees blown over but not too much else. Have heard of some damage though to mobile homes and frame buildings. The lights are really starting to flicker so I don't think the power will be on much longer. While outside we the bright "transformer flash" from somewhere not too far. The news just said 2 million w/o power...the weather radio alarm just went off...tornado warning. Time to duck....

--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: storm 1]
      #24112 - Sat Sep 04 2004 08:18 PM

radar presentation showing hints of wobble effect in play during the most recent run of frames.... right now its slightly elongated SW to NE... as it continues to rotate over time the NE section of the eye wall should pivot and be relatively close to land (ft pierce) as it continues to move to the WNW or ~ 275-280 degrees.... its really looking good right now on radar... expect the winds to be increased at 11 IMO

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AngB
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 8
Loc: S. Merritt Island
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: h2ocean]
      #24117 - Sat Sep 04 2004 08:24 PM

Take care. Thanks for the updates!

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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: AngB]
      #24123 - Sat Sep 04 2004 08:32 PM

AngB did you stay or go? Just saw more flashes from transformers and heard them this time!

--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


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Disaster Buddies
Unregistered




Weather Disaster or any other kind? We can help [Re: MikeC]
      #24148 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:55 PM

The place where people help people www.disasterbuddies.com

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gtd
Unregistered




Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: MikeC]
      #24171 - Sun Sep 05 2004 01:18 AM

THIS IS FROM THE """LAND DOWN UNDER"""

JUST TO WISH YOU ALL GOOD LUCK AND SAFE PASSAGE
FROM ALL US "OSSIES".. WE ARE THINKING OF YOU AND PRAYING ALL WILL BE SAFE.. AND FRANCIS WILL WIN NO MEDALS ...

[color:blue] [/color] :crazy:


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