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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




HUH????? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #24114 - Sat Sep 04 2004 08:21 PM

Something has to be wrong. An 11mb drop in a couple of hrs and now a 9mb increase in an hr. Jason????

ShawnS


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Frances Approaching Florida [Re: Unregistered User]
      #24115 - Sat Sep 04 2004 08:23 PM

Interesting...they might have missed the center on that pass (it is a rather large center and that is not out of the question), or the recon showing 951 could have been bad (which I doubt).

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Frances Approaching Florida [Re: k___g]
      #24116 - Sat Sep 04 2004 08:24 PM

The question that I am wresting with is the evolution and strength of Frances in the Panhandle.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Takingforever
Unregistered




Re: Frances Approaching Florida [Re: Unregistered User]
      #24118 - Sat Sep 04 2004 08:24 PM

I' m watching CNN and they ask why at 5pm the "eye wall" was 50 miles away from the coast and now at 8 pm it's still 50 miles away. The anwser they got was that "the eye" got smaller, but it is moving.

I don't know what to take from this, but that is scary.


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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: Figure Skater [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #24119 - Sat Sep 04 2004 08:26 PM

They were talking on CNN with a met from Accu-Weather and was discussing the tightening of the storm, likening it to a figure skater bringing their arms down to spin faster...

Also, our UPN affiliate here in Atlanta, which is owned by Viacom has been simulcasting WFOR in Miami and it;'s good to hear the updates from Bryan Norcross to get the real deal on what's happening there.(As opposed to the weekend mets here in Atlanta and Geraldo Rivera at Riviera Beach on FNC)

Our prayers are with everyone in Florida for a safe ride through Frances....

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!

Edited by Jeffmidtown (Sat Sep 04 2004 08:33 PM)


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Recon Correction... [Re: wxman007]
      #24120 - Sat Sep 04 2004 08:27 PM

WTNT61 KNHC 050018
TCUAT
BULLETIN
HURRICANE Frances UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 820 PM EDT SAT SEP 4 2004

THE 951 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED IN THE 8 PM EDT INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY IS CORRECTED TO 957 MB. A STILL LATER HURRICANE HUNTER REPORT INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURE IS 960 MB.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Ronn
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
Re: Frances Approaching Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #24121 - Sat Sep 04 2004 08:30 PM

Conditions are deteriorating here on the west coast of Florida, where Frances is expected to cross as a moderate to strong TS Sunday afternoon. It is a far cry from current lashing on the east coast, but we are experiencing our first major squalls this evening with increasing winds. Here are the current conditions from my weather station near St. Pete:

Wind Gust: 30mph
Pressure: 29.74in, 1007mb, falling
Total rain: 0.12in


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: Recon Correction... [Re: wxman007]
      #24122 - Sat Sep 04 2004 08:30 PM

I guess that pressure is better.
Jason, what's your guess on where it will cross the coast?
I'm in orlando area and it will of course affect what we get tomorrow.
Local Mets are saying Orlando 75-85 mph winds.
????
Wondering what path it's taking across the state???


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Recon Correction... [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #24124 - Sat Sep 04 2004 08:33 PM

It's so broad and the windfield so large, it doesn't really matter where the exact points are...don't sweat that at this point...your local mets are right...you could see 75-85 mph winds whether you are are 3 miles from the center or 60...it doesn't matter that much at this point.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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ThirdRay
Unregistered




Re: Recon Correction... [Re: wxman007]
      #24125 - Sat Sep 04 2004 08:36 PM

Well here in Lakeland (middle of Lakeland) I would like to know what path she will take across the State. They all say if it passes just South it will be much worse because the stronger winds are all on the N-NE side. Help Anyone...
P.S. Thanks All....GREAT SITE !!!!!!!!


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Doombot!
Unregistered




Re: Recon Correction... [Re: ThirdRay]
      #24126 - Sat Sep 04 2004 08:39 PM

Quote:

Well here in Lakeland (middle of Lakeland) I would like to know what path she will take across the State. They all say if it passes just South it will be much worse because the stronger winds are all on the N-NE side. Help Anyone...
P.S. Thanks All....GREAT SITE !!!!!!!!




I'm in Lakeland by I-4...if the path is follow exactly, then the eye will pass just north of Mulberry (around sheppard rd.) But there is no way to narrow it down that much...It looks like Lakeland will be at or near whats left of the eye a little north or a little south


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Recon Correction... [Re: ThirdRay]
      #24127 - Sat Sep 04 2004 08:40 PM

See my post right above yours...

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Recon Correction... [Re: ThirdRay]
      #24128 - Sat Sep 04 2004 08:40 PM

I noted also that the eye seemed to be "moving" toward the coast. However, if you look at the Melbourne radar and put your cursor on the western eyewall, you will see that the eastern eyewall is contracting toward the western eyewall, giving the illusion of movement that doesn't seem to be their yet, as my cursor was still on the western eyewall at the end of the loop.

It is becoming more elliptical though, and isn't it true that more elliptical is often a precursor to movement?


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Ronn
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
Re: Recon Correction... [Re: ThirdRay]
      #24129 - Sat Sep 04 2004 08:43 PM

It is impossible to say whether the storm will move north or south of Lakeland. As Jason mentioned, the wind field is so large that we shouldn't concern ourselves with the exact center. Even south of the center, winds are going to be strong. I think in your location you may experience hurricane force gusts, but more than likely, locations from central Polk county westward will experience 40-60mph sustained winds with gusts of 70mph. Frances' wind field is so large that all of the inland peninsula will experience quite a bit of wind.

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snoozer
Unregistered




Re: Recon Correction... [Re: wxman007]
      #24130 - Sat Sep 04 2004 08:45 PM

I am on St. George Island, and this waiting is almost unbearable.
At this stage, whether I go west or easy or north, I'm still in it. That is why I am hoping for a quick TS-style crossing of the GOM. Still thinking it will exit south-er... of the current models.
Jason, I appreciate your insights and comments!


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Since we're back up again... [Re: snoozer]
      #24131 - Sat Sep 04 2004 09:56 PM

Latest recon has pressure at 957mb

ShawnS


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Since we're back up again... [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #24132 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:04 PM

Glad we are back, from radar I think Frances has touched down around 26.9/80.1.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Recon Correction... [Re: wxman007]
      #24133 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:06 PM

Local Met (channel 9) just reported that there are reports of winds to 115mph in WPB, with significant structural damage. I believe he was saying gusts to 115mph, not sustained. Trying to find more out now.

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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
Re: Recon Correction... [Re: clyde w.]
      #24134 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:11 PM

Posting from S. Merritt Island. We still have power in our subdivision (River Grove). The surrounding homes in the next subdivision have no power. I have seen lots of transformer flashes. We have been having gusts over 80 mph for many hours. TS force winds started around noon today. They are saying we will have winds gusting over 110 later tonight.

--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Landfall Hobe Sound at 10:05 pm [Re: h2ocean]
      #24135 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:14 PM

This is better news for the Orlando area (I think)

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