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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: Recon Correction... [Re: h2ocean]
      #24136 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:14 PM

Watching CNN with Gary Tuchman reporting from Ft. Pierce and at 10pm he is reporting that police say that they have sustained winds of 85mph..

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gailmm
Unregistered




Re: Recon Correction... [Re: h2ocean]
      #24137 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:16 PM

Glad to see you are holding your own. Think conditions are similar in Sat Beach? We're about 3 mi so of Patrick AFB, 4 blocks in from A1A.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
radar presentation [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #24138 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:20 PM

sure looks like a north of due west motion... also looks like it hints of picking up some forward speed... I sure hope so for the east coast's sake..

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Recon Correction... [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #24139 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:21 PM

I am hearing that I have suppose to have sustained winds from 80-95 MPH in South Kissimmee/Poinciana Area. Storm looks to still looks like it has a northern component so around WNW, maybe around 290-300

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Recon Correction... [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #24140 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:26 PM

I think its already more south than its NHC projected forecast.... interesting to see when it going to get on that NW heading the NHC is banking on for its future path........

looks more like 280 at best to me....at the present time


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Recon Correction... [Re: Frank P]
      #24141 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:28 PM

URNT12 KNHC 050206
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 05/0206Z
B. 27 DEG 03 MIN N
79 DEG 40 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2733 M
D. NA KT
E. NA DEG NM
F. 044 DEG 99 KT
G. 315 DEG 032 NM
H. 960 MB
I. 12 C/ 3071 M
J. 15 C/ 3082 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C45
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1.5 NM
P. AF980 3006A Frances OB 22
MAX FL WIND 103 KT NE QUAD 0049Z.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
Re: Recon Correction... [Re: Frank P]
      #24142 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:29 PM

I think youre right! We shall see. I wonder if it could reform in the gulf and head your way? Scarry stuff! What a season this year!. And to think it has just begun!

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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
Re: Recon Correction... [Re: gailmm]
      #24143 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:29 PM

gailmm...yes the conditions here on S. Merritt Island would be about the same as in your location...just south of Patrick. As the crow flies we are 3 miles NW of Patrick across the Banana River. Winds are picking up even more - you can here the wind very loud. We have shutters and armour screen for the patio and it is really roaring now. I am so glad all of the windows/doors are covered!

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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Recon Correction... [Re: 52255225]
      #24144 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:42 PM

well its going to have to start picking up that nw heading relatively soon if its going to match the NHC forecast.... key for the GOM will be where it exits the west coast of Florida... I would have never thought this thing could make it all the way to the GOM... its not there yet, but boy, it sure looks like it has a chance... 10 days ago I picked the space coast, Kennedy Space Center as my impact area... and stuck with it... also said it would be there or areas south of there... so I got real lucky with that call... based mostly on analysis that the ridge would do the job.... boy did it... but I never expected a GOM shot... wow.... bad part part about this, the worse is yet to come from Frances for the east coast as the NE and E quadrants are not onland yet..

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Recon Correction... [Re: Frank P]
      #24145 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:48 PM

You seem to be correct yet again Frank P, would this suggest another NHC track change at 11? One model comes to mind

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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BIRDDOG
Unregistered




Re: Recon Correction... [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #24146 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:50 PM

The 11PM Advisory moves the track back to the west and widens the 50kt wind fields....

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bobbistorm
Unregistered




hi from North Miami Beach [Re: Frank P]
      #24147 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:53 PM

Hi.. just got on and reading.

Here in Northeast Dade we've had strong winds all day. Trees are down everywhere, bits and pieces of minor debris, signs, billboards, lights.. very different storm in Aventura/Sunny Isles than what rest of Dade is getting.

Lot better than what you all are getting up in Palm Beach and surrounding areas.

Not on a lot.. cable is out and most of the area is w/o electric but so far have it here...hoping it holds though with another 6 or 12 hours of this..who knows.

Watching Juno Beach on tv in what seems to be the eye.

Thanks for the updates and glad the site is up.


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Recon Correction... [Re: BIRDDOG]
      #24149 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:57 PM

Actually it moved it back slightly to the east for the second landfall...Landfall forecast near Carrabelle, FL....I disagree, but that is the NHC call...

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Edited by wxman007 (Sat Sep 04 2004 10:58 PM)


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Recon Correction... [Re: BIRDDOG]
      #24150 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:57 PM

Where did you get your info from? I have the new track shifted to the EAST, mvt to the north of Panama City.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
Re: Recon Correction... [Re: BIRDDOG]
      #24151 - Sat Sep 04 2004 10:57 PM

looks like they moved it more north.

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bobbistorm
Unregistered




Re: radar presentation...you are right [Re: Frank P]
      #24152 - Sat Sep 04 2004 11:00 PM

just north of due west

don't understand how they can keep saying wnw.
I know the idea is that they believe motion will resume in that general direction but really you are right...its going just north of due west and believe in calling it like it is not what we hope it will do

especially keep in mind that the eye is funny shaped at time and the thin eye band around it is very narrow the broader band of strong winds stretches into funny shapes at times and so strong winds are further away from the eye circling around as it moves "westish" as opposed to if there was a very tight eye wall with a strong band. Winds are stretched out a bit over a broader area. Have heard it compared on local tv to Isabel?? and a few other recent storms that had a broader center of circulation.

also..looked to me on radar most of the afternoon that it intensified some .. at least five mphs but advisories have held to 105


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Track didn't change that much [Re: bobbistorm]
      #24153 - Sat Sep 04 2004 11:01 PM

NHC is saying that the ridge will break down due to the approaching trough. I'm 50/50 on that happening. Any thoughts from any of you on this?

ShawnS


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snoozer
Unregistered




Re: Track didn't change that much [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #24154 - Sat Sep 04 2004 11:05 PM

As long as we're predicting:
out around Crystal River, 2nd landfall Apalachicola.
Just my 2-cent premonition.


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BIRDDOG
Unregistered




Re: Recon Correction... [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #24155 - Sat Sep 04 2004 11:06 PM

You're right! East, West... Left, Right... Very tricky stuff!

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Track didn't change that much [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #24156 - Sat Sep 04 2004 11:06 PM

It will break down some....else she would just keep moving west....but I ain't buying the amount of breakdown that is forecast...

Regardless, we are talking about a 50 mile shift...with the windfields of this thing, this isn't a huge issue, but I do have a further west track.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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