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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: pretty w/sun [Re: BillD]
      #24252 - Wed Sep 08 2004 08:48 PM

Great to see the site up again. Im still tired of Frances and now theres already a Cat 4/Borderline 5 "expected" to make it into the Gulf. That just makes my stomach drop. Never had that feeling during a season. What makes it worse is that there is actually a chance this could come very near me and other residents of the Central Gulf Coast. I'd say landfall between N.O to Tampa for now as most recurving gulf storms take that path. I sure hope this season lays to rest the stupid comments every year around July like, "seasons over, hurricane cancel, and the many others I see on other sites". when there havent been many storms....Whelp everyone get some rest, got some more busy times ahead. Everyone have a great evening.

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docjoe
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Re: happy to see you back [Re: LI Phil]
      #24253 - Wed Sep 08 2004 08:54 PM

I believe in 1993 Bret skirted right along the northern coast of South American although I dont recall if it ever reached hurricane strength. BTW this is my first post here. I have been visiting the site for awhile though. Far and away the best site of its type I have seen. Kudos to all....and keep the Ivan info coming. I live about 10 miles inland in Santa Rosa county and definitely am watching this one.

joe

Welcome aboard DocJoe!

Edited by LI Phil (Wed Sep 08 2004 08:59 PM)


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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: Ivan [Re: DroopGB31]
      #24254 - Wed Sep 08 2004 08:54 PM

looks to be going through a eye wall replacement.... the cloud tops around the eye are amazing!

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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
11:00 ADVISORY [Re: DroopGB31]
      #24255 - Wed Sep 08 2004 09:00 PM

What are your thoughts on the 11:00 advisory? Do you think theres much change?

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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 117
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: Glad to have the site back up and running [Re: jth]
      #24256 - Wed Sep 08 2004 09:03 PM

Thank Goodness !!! Jeez, I missed this site; I've probably checked a dozen times a day to see if it was back up. I was NOT looking forward to going through Ivan next week without everyone here !! I lurked on this board for several years before getting brave enough to post. It is the first place I look for storm info............... my husband often gets tired of my saying, "but the board said"

OK, I'm going to paypal now to send in all of my ebay money so the site can stay up !! Then I'll go catch up on the posts. Wait............ on second thought, maybe I'll go catch up first (in case it goes back down) !!

Welcome back y'all !!!!!!!!!!!!!


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: 11:00 ADVISORY [Re: 52255225]
      #24257 - Wed Sep 08 2004 09:04 PM

Seems like it may change direction soon..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Back and Tracking Ivan [Re: MikeC]
      #24258 - Wed Sep 08 2004 09:14 PM

For a good comparison of a low-track storm, here is Hurricane Joan from 1988:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at198811.asp

Formed not long after the immense Gilbert.


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: 11:00 ADVISORY [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #24259 - Wed Sep 08 2004 09:18 PM

WELCOME BACK to the board !!!! YEA!!!!!

I expect the 11pm advisory to possibly upgrade the winds in Ivan. since the pressure has been dropping since this afternoon.


THe models seem to be moving farther Eastward but I'm not sure that they have a good handle on this one yet.


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




MUST READ!!!!! [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #24260 - Wed Sep 08 2004 09:22 PM

http://independentwx.com/atlanticdiscussion.html


VERY INTERESTING! MAYBE A WAY OUT FOR FLORIDA! LET"S HOPE SO ANYWAY!

ShawnS


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alan
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
East coast damage [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #24261 - Wed Sep 08 2004 09:24 PM

Just got back from a trip to Melbourne. Drove up A-1-A on the way back to the Orlando area. Had to take my son back to the ex-wife, so I wasn't just gawking.
Here's my thoughts.

Surprisingly, Cocoa Beach took a lot more of a hit than points on my drive further south. I started at Indiatlantic, just east of Melbourne, on A-1-A. Melbourne didn't look too bad. Traffic lights down, some trees and some signs. One church had almost its entire eastern side taken off, but other than that, Downtown Orlando looked 10 times worse after Charley.
Same story on A-1-A in Indiatlantic, Indian Harbour Beach and Satellite Beach, although much more structural damage to homes. Didn't see any roofs off, just lots of awning and shingles. Most of the trees and sea grapes were stripped of their folliage and were basically bunches of brown sticks.

The damage starting getting worse near Patrick Air Force base. One building on the base was demolished. I also started to see sand build up on the road, signifying the surge had breeched the dunes here.

Approaching Cocoa Beach, the damage became worse. Roofs were off several buildings, signs were blown out. Stopped off at the beach and the house next to the walkway had their entire backyard covered in sand. It was at least two feet deep on their back wall. Sand splatters covered the house.

The worse damage was to the church on A-1-A. Probably most have seen the steeple that broke off and stuck upside down in the roof. The pictures aren't anywhere close to seeing it live. The other massive damage was to the bank building where A-1-A comes back to being a four-lane road heading north. Several of the windows were blown out and part of the building was torn off.

Moving towards SR 528, the damaged tapered off, but that may have been because it was further from the beach. Didn't see a lot of trees down on the Bee Line until I got to near the airport and I believe most of those trees were down during Charlie.

The St. John's looked swollen, but not as much as I thought it would be. I've seen it that high before, but maybe the flood waters haven't hit yet.

Anyway, that's my report. Any thoughts on why Cocoa might have been hit harder than Melbourne, which was 30 miles closer to the center?


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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
Re: 11:00 ADVISORY [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #24262 - Wed Sep 08 2004 09:26 PM

Theres a person on this board I think his name is scottvb something like that, hes good with these storms.Sure would like to have his input. I noticed that he posted on the temp forum gatorpond. Scottvb where are you?

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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: bigger than Frances? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #24263 - Wed Sep 08 2004 09:32 PM

While the overall growth of Ivan appears impressive in satellite images, so far there has been no change in the wind field dimensions as reported by NHC.

If there is a change at 11pm, we'll make an updated comparison map.


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Hurricane Alley Spaghetti Run [Re: 52255225]
      #24264 - Wed Sep 08 2004 09:35 PM

I found a new place to get the Spaghetti Model run from hurricane Alley - here is a direct link to the image. And this is the site where is comes from. It also has some other useful graphics.

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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: bigger than Frances? [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #24265 - Wed Sep 08 2004 09:41 PM

First, it is soooooooo good to have the site back up!

Now as far as "The Russian Bear" Ivan...Just a gut feeling tells me one of three things as far as landfall...

1) Ivan goes between the west tip of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula and heads for a Texas lanfall anywhere from Brownsville to Houston landfall...

2) Ivan goes over Cuba and pays Fidel a visit in Havana and then heads northwestward for a Mid GOM coast landfall anywhere from FWB, Fla to NoLa

3) Ivan does a Charley/Frances of sorts, heads over Havana and goes northward to make landfall where Frances did and straddles the AL/GA border causing a large bit of damage again in the Atlanta Metro area..

One disclaimer though---I do reserve the right to change this predicition as late as Friday by 5pm

Those are my three guesses, but one thing I'm pretty confident about is Ivan will not be a fish pureer....

>>> fish pureer....

um...what is a fish pureer?



Edited by LI Phil (Wed Sep 08 2004 09:45 PM)


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Jeffmidtown [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #24266 - Wed Sep 08 2004 09:45 PM

I can tell you right now that your #1 option can be thrown out the window. That will not happen! The other two are definite possibilities.

ShawnS


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: bigger than Frances? [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #24267 - Wed Sep 08 2004 09:46 PM

Ivan has got to be close to a Cat V tonight.
Just look at this very healthy hurricane.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Models [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #24268 - Wed Sep 08 2004 09:50 PM

The GFS was too far to the right on Frances, and that trend seems to be continuing. I will give it high marks for consistency though. It has (for several runs) taken it east of Florida, and then looped it back into the mid atlantic. With a storm like this, it is my opinion that the farther east solutions are going to be hard to achieve. I still expect it to end up in the NW Caribbean. Gilbert never was able to make the predicted turn, and it intensified rapidly after hitting Jamaica. If my memory is correct, it was about 135 mph over Jamiaca, and stregthened to 888 mil. and 180 mph after that.
The ULL looks to be moving away faster than Ivan is approaching. It may be enhancing the outflow, and the eyewall now looks like a perfect doughnut. I think this is Cat 5 by 11 pm. This also might make it harder to turn, although it looks to have wobbled back to the right on the last pic.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Back and Tracking Ivan [Re: MikeC]
      #24269 - Wed Sep 08 2004 09:53 PM

Ah, nice to see the site back. Ivan's a monster out there....yet also a beautiful storm to behold. Certainly strengthening tonight, I don't think we'll see any bump in the winds at 11pm -- but tomorrow is another story. The turn north hasn't happened yet, which is actually a bad thing for the US (unless it never does turn north).

I'll have more on Friday for you all about the storm, but everyone in the Gulf needs to watch this. Most model guidance says eastern Gulf, but those from Biloxi west need to be watching it too. If pressed for an asnwer though, Florida is the most likely spot...again. This time, probably the panhandle, most likely the western panhandle, but I'll have the chance to look at it more by then and narrow things down. Until then...just sit back and watch -- and if you are on the coast, it wouldn't hurt to get prepared now, as three days from landfall, people will be going crazy getting ready considering what this year has already brought.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Wobble... [Re: MrSpock]
      #24270 - Wed Sep 08 2004 09:53 PM

and back to the left again on the latest pic.

ShawnS


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Tazmanian93
Unregistered




Re: bigger than Frances? [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #24271 - Wed Sep 08 2004 09:54 PM

I would have to agree with you. It looks like we go to the same sites. Let me know if you need any: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/links.html ,,http://www.weather.com/?from=globalnav,, http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/,, http://www.noaa.gov/index.html,, http://www.hurricanealley.net/,,http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_astorm6+shtml/032058.shtml?,, http://images.flhurricane.com/,,http://www.skeetobite.com/,, http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html,, http://www.hurricanecity.com/,, http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/,, http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/index.asp?partner=accuweather,, http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm,, http://www.hurricanehollow.com/models.html,, http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/

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