MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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6:30PM Update:
Recent recon report shows 943 mb, which is a good pressure drop. is gaining strength tonight.
From what I can see there is not much to be really all that confident in models for the long term, perhaps tomorrow.
Those with and photos that want to share them, please email them to john@flhurricane.com john is handling the photos.
Original Update
Hurricane has gone through Florida and southern Georgia.
Ivan looks to be bearing down on Jamaica later in the week and crossing Cuba, folks along the gulf coast will want to watch it. Grenada much got the brunt of and is still reeling from the effects of it.
More to come.
We're back
those asking for a mailing address for donations should use
Mike Cornelius
804 Omni Blvd
Suite 101
Newport News, VA 23606
We'll be updating hardware very soon thanks to all. More recognition will be coming shortly
Hurricane Victims also need help, for sure moreso than me, so groups such as the American Red Cross and the like also could use the help.
Event RelatedLinks
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image (Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, , , JMA, , UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Keep your fingers crossed that this will be the last one for a while. Anyway, good luck with the upgrade. I have a few pics of the flooding around my house in clearwater, so at some point I might post a link to them... not serious flooding, but it looked cool and hopefully I have a couple of ok shots of Tampa bay emptied out of water *chuckles*
take care all
(if you add www. to the link, they work... FYI)
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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I have been lost without this site. sure does smell of a north gulf coast storm. May be wishcasting. I just don't want Florida to get this one. They couldn't handle . It could be the strongest and largest one yet. I hope I am wrong, but I don't think the US will excape this one either.
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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I still don't see much of a north motion. it wobbled that way earlier today, but has maintained a steady WWNW track.
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TropiGal
Registered User
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Posts: 2
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Boy am I glad to see this board back up and running. I was going through withdrawal sumpin' awful! I don't know what was worse, Starbucks being closed for 2 days due to or this board being down. It's a toss up.
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
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I have never seen one, in all the years I have been doing this...track so southerly. HAS to hit the Gulf.
HIGH SST's....well....you KNOW what I am fearing...
For once Rick, I'll share your concern...Mobile Bay is as good a bullseye as any right now. Stay Safe!
Edited by LI Phil (Wed Sep 08 2004 09:34 PM)
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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Funny, but you may be fairly close on this one. It has consistently been south of the models. If it stays left, then a Lake Charles to PCB landfall as a strong, very very strong hurricane is becoming more likely.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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5:00:
** WTNT44 KNHC 082036 ***
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 08 2004
TODAY HAS BEEN A HISTORIC DAY FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE/
NATIONAL OCEANIC ATMOPHERIC ADMINISTRATION/NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED
STATES VISITED THE FACILITIES AT MIAMI FLORIDA.
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST PENETRATED THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE AND
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 947 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A DISTINCT
EYE...SURROUNDED COMPLETELY BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW IS
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KNOTS. IT
APPEARS THAT IS OVERCOMING THE SHEAR AND HEADING TOWARD A MORE
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.
AFTER CROSSING CUBA...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THE
OCEAN IS NOT AS WARM. THEREFORE SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
IVAN HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOW MOVING
295 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE...KEEPING ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. IT MUST BE RE-EMPHASIZED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 72
HOURS CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE WEAK AND NOT WELL-DEFINED IN THE FORECAST MODELS.
THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS CONTINUES IN THE LATEST 12Z RUN. SOME
MODELS BRING OVER FLORIDA AND ANOTHER GROUP MOVE THE
HURRICANE TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS NO APPARENT REASON TO
FAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
PRESUMES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON
A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK... BRINGING DANGEROUS
OVER WESTERN CUBA IN 4 DAYS AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
DAY FIVE.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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What cooler water are they referring to. Everything I see shows the Gulf having even warmer water than the Caribbean.
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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As much as I hate to say it, I see as a Florida problem. Believe me, I DON"T want this to happen. I would love to see go out to sea and be a fish spinner but that is pretty unlikely. I don't wish this one on anybody but please let me be wrong and it miss Florida. Mike, I will be starting my new job on Monday after being out of work for a long time and I hope to somehow send some dough your way to help out with this wonderful site. Thanks for your hard work!!!
ShawnS
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palmetto
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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I'm also seeing a Florida problem, though I desperately don't want to. Even though the panhandle has come away relatively unscathed, I'm growing weary of the entire business. My folks haven't even taken the boards from down--they say they'll wait until after .
I missed this site so much. You do such good work here--please keep it up!
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Good to have you back Mike. It was tough being down during as I was an IM conduit for some local folks.
Thankfully was not nearly as bad inland as . But I really don't think the state can take another hit in 5-6 days. Already there is moderate to major flooding on every river on the west coast of Florida, and minor to moderate flooding in Central Florida. This is the ultimate worst case scenario I can think of...
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BSakowicz
Unregistered
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I am just sick and tired of the Hurricanes! Buy a house and two months later... whammo! Two canes in a month! I have to say that I've learned a lot more about Tropical weather in the past month than I ever cared to. I am not anxious to spend more time cooped up...
-Brian
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Another monster hurricane, a CAT 4 and it's not even in the Gulf of Mexico yet. It seems like Florida is a magnet this year for hurricanes, but I don't really know where this one is going. Those Artic highs and troughs start popping up now-a-days and then it blows your forecast right out the window. Thanks Mike for getting the site back up, I'll contribute some money, it's for a good cause!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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ms0337
Unregistered
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To see similarities b/t where was and where is now, go to www.orlandoweather.com and click on the interactive "Atlantic Tracker." (You can view the paths of each hurricane by selecting in the left lower corner.) Pretty crazy!
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Hey everyone,
Was away and without Internet access since early Saturday, although it looks like this site was also down for some time. Got a lot of catching up to do.
I hope everyone fared OK with , I know she wasn't of the intensity of , but what a duration...was watching the whole weekend.
It's my understanding that there is now an "I" storm out there. I don't think we really need this...Obviously I can't will it up my way, but if there is anything I can do to keep it from striking FL, let me know....seriously...a tremendous THX to Mike for his outstanding work...Mike check the mod forum for my reply...we get about a week reprieve and then hell again.
OK, glad to be back here. If there's any good to come from any of this it's that NO ONE will ever be caught unprepared again (until the next time). You guys are great.
Back later tonight...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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glad to see things online again. not too crowded yet.. with on the way that isn't going to last.
item #1 is . latest recon pegged the pressure down to 943mb... lowest so far. like did this storm has the potential to bottom out as a cat 5.. jamaica is likely the only landmass it would get in that state. modeling has been clustering around the florida peninsula as its u.s. impact point for a couple of days now.. globals that melt the ridge periphery down still offering the only out as a cuba-bahamas storm (of course they aren't exactly getting rid of , just slowing the storm down off the southeast coast as the ridge rebuilds by the middle of next week). i'm going to render my idea right now that will hit somewhere on the west coast of florida.. from the keys up to apalachicola.. between late monday and late tuesday as a cat 3/4. the potential for eleventh hour weakening as with exists (weakening ridge/shearing environment late in the game). exactly how disruptive jamaica and cuba are also remains to be seen.
other features...
frances is looking less and less tropical as it rides up the appalachians. substantial rain impact felt across much of the atlantic coastal plain, ga/carolina piedmont, and the appalachians.. coming to an end. tornado threat also decreasing. florida got it worst, but with bonnie, and gaston having traversed the region in the last month things are quite wet.. 's coming is not going to help things.
97L.. persistent disturbance now no longer a tropical feature.. development as a subtropical system unlikely but possible. system has been slowly closing on the azores in a sheared environment, blocked by ridging to the ne, with a trough digging and breaking away to the west. has been tracked since august 30th.. unusual longevity for an invest.
modeling suggests two low-potential areas of development in the subtropics.. northerly flow behind into the gulf merging with an easterly wave, with residual ridging. no organization at this point, but eta suggests a trough will develop near the yucatan later this week.
trough forecast to dig, cut off and retrograde near 30n in the central atlantic.. several clusters of convection associated.. slight potential for this low to become deep layer by associating with surface convection, and acquire tropical characteristics.. once it develops.
waves near 45w, 31w.. and newly emerging. the 45w wave has a moderate chance of development... weak ridging aloft, broad circulation.. unfocused, scattered convection also. hasn't changed profile much since tue, moving w-wnw at around 12mph. low model interest. 31w wave not much different in terms of potential, moving w at lower latitude. characteristics similar.
development clock is ticking with isis having developed in the eastpac.. 5-10 days.
glad to see people coming back on. y'all take it easy.
HF 2212z08september
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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Quote:
I have never seen one, in all the years I have been doing this...track so southerly. HAS to hit the Gulf.
HIGH SST's....well....you KNOW what I am fearing...
For once Rick, I'll share your concern...Mobile Bay is as good a bullseye as any right now. Stay Safe!
I have been reading this site for 3 years now and have never posted. I don't know a whole lot about all of the technical stuff, but if I keep reading here, I ought to become fairly intelligent with the weather. Everyone around here "expects" me to be keeping up with whats going on and I have been so lost without this site up. I was mainly concerned with everyone's safety and I hope that all faired well. Believe it or not Citronelle (about 30 miles north of Mobile) gets alot of the higher wind gusts and rain storms. We had a storm about 6 weeks ago that just ripped the car porch off from the house and smashed it where the car usually is and the other end of the house had the vinyl siding and eave torn off. Boy, if I had known all about the 5% wind/hail deductible, I would have surely not filed the claim. We got nothing for the claim. But, we got some pretty good wind gusts 40-45 mph in Citronelle Monday. I am awed at what you people know. You have been so close if not even closer than the local weather channels and The Weather Channel. Thanks to all who make this work. I actually prayed that would go around Florida and come hit us (Mobile) if that is what it took so that they would not get more. My heart and prayers are with all of you in Florida. Just to let you know, I still would rather see come this way than Florida, you guys have had enough. I think this is quite long enough for my first post. KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK!!!
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Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama
Weather Watcher
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TropiGal
Registered User
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Posts: 2
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Not sure exactly where the Hebert Box #2 is and I'm wondering if looks like it might be approaching it. Any thoughts?
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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I AM SOOOOO happy this site is back up.. i am going to try and support financially.. 
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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