MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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11AM Update
NHC Official Track shifts left a bit at 11, now toward West Coast of Florida again Late Sunday, Monday or Tuesday. The hurricane center also states, however, that they are very uncertain with the track at present.
10AM Update
All non-residents and visitors to the Florida Keys are now under a mandatory evacuation order. As of 9AM Today. At 7AM tomorrow the Keys will undergo a phased evacuation for residents as well.
Monroe County Emergency Management
Original Update
Hurricane is now a strong and rare Category 5 Hurricane, the highest on the scale.
is moving west Northwest in the Caribbean Sea. The Latest recon has recorded a windspeed at 151 Knots at flight level, which indicates the sustained ground windspeed may be even higher than the 160MPH at the 5AM National Hurricane Center Advisory.
Right now it still has room to get a little bit stronger. I am not sure if it will reach Gilbert levels or not, but it is possible. It is important to note that if it got to Florida, it would not be at its current intensity, it would likely be lower. Hopefully much lower.
This is not good news at all for Jamaica if it heads ion its current path. Luckily storms like this usually don't hold extreme strength too long. But if the conditions allow it for further strengthening it may still be a or category 5 or strong 4 at landfall for Jamaica. However the official forecast calls for it to weaken a bit before then.
Tropical Depression Ten formed in the east Atlantic, near the Azores. It's moving Northeast and looks to be a fiish spinner (not affecting land) for the most part.
More to come later today.
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Event RelatedLinks
Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image (Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
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General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
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NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
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LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, , , JMA, , UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas
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224
WTNT61 KNHC 091040
TCUAT
BULLETIN
HURRICANE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
635 AM AST THU SEP 9 2004
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
THIS MORNING RECENTLY REPORTED...AT 614 AM AST OR 1014Z...A
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 154 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THEY ALSO
REPORTED A LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 920 MB...SUGGESTING THAT
MAY CONTAIN SURFACE WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE 160 MPH
INDICATED IN THE 5 AM AST ADVISORY. DROPSONDE WIND REPORTS ALSO
INDICATED WINDS OF NEAR 210 MPH AT AN ALTITUDE OF ABOUT 350 FEET
ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE.
FORECASTER STEWART
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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It now appears the Terrible is moving solidly WNW, and it looks like intensification may have slowed down or stopped based on the inner-core convection. Really not a surprise since it has gone through 2 intens. bursts since yesterday. The seems to be doing what it did with , and that is insisting on a far-right track. With , several runs around day 5 called for landfall in the Carolinas. I am not sure why this model is behaving this way, if I remember correctly, it did a pretty good job with Isabel and others. About a week ago, one of the forecasters at the NWSFO in Mount Holly talked about how the recent activity correllated well to the activity in the tropics. He stated at the time that the eastern trough pattern was disrupted in early August by the activity, and that that trough was not likely to return in the near future (written on 9-4).
It has been a strange year. South America gets hit by a hurricane, and there are 2 others out there, plus Japan gets hit by 7 typhoons this year, in addition to our troubles in the tropics. This year deserves a lot of study.
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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I looked at the 5-day projections and the different models. They all show some amount of northerly turn, which is why it's apparently now going to Florida. Anyway, how is it that a storm that big can make sure a dramatic turn?
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Southeast Texas
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Is there any truth to the saying that hurricanes can create their own environment?
Could do this - if its possible?
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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The ETA (not trusting it totally at this point either) is much more to the left than the . I think has gradually made a rightward turn since yesterday. If this were the size of Gilbert, I would say they are all too far to the right. It may have been 16 years ago, but I seem to remember Gilbert was forecasted originally to hit several hundred miles farther east than it did. That monster also took up a lot of space, and totally altered its surroundings. It just wouldn't (couldn't?) turn. This one looks like it can. If this hits Jamaica head-on, it will be worse than Gilbert if it remains at this intensity. It took many years for them to recover from that one.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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I was writing my last post when you posed the question about creating their own environments that I touched on.
Yes, if they are big enough and strong enough, they can. As I alluded to above, Gilbert not only created its own environment, but altered the weather pattern for weeks to come if memory serves. Without seeing maps from that time, I recall Gilbert hitting NE Mexico, and getting lost in the mountains, but the high aloft that went with it, remained over the GOM for several weeks, and cleaned things out for a while. If anyone remembers this differently, feel free to set me straight on that, but that is what I remember. Also, Gilbert was the strongest ever, and its pressure dropped to 888 mbs. in addition to its huge areal coverage.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Latest WV imagery show a fast moving ridge to the east of FL. Extrapolated plot would put this ridge covering the southern half of the FL peninsula in 18-24hrs. This is provided that the current speed and direction are maintained.
The ridge is moving westward at at rather rapid rate. A 2 hour loop looks like 10-15mph. 1145Z western most point of the ridge is on a line with the Ft Pierce area.
Maybe this will give FL some protection!
Correction, Ridge axis extends to a point east of the Melbourne/KSC area. 30.0N/ 75.0W roughly
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES121520042533CTHa9.jpg
Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 09 2004 12:43 PM)
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Dunedin, FL
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Hurricane Gilbert had the lowest sea level pressure (888 Mb) ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere. Gilbert reached category 5 status, but at the time of it's landfall over Cozumel, Mexico it had weakened to a category 3 storm. Gilbert tracked northeast into Texas and Oklahoma.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Loop this image, and watch the area off the FL east coast move west, a little faster than 's forward speed.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
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Bev
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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Has anyone else noticed the paths of and are on top of each other?
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Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Do hurricanes create they're own enviroment? Yes and really NO. They can improve the outflow and different aspects to the storm, but they dont make them go 1 way or another. Even with a storm like this or in past years such as floyd,,,a trough or other dynamics in the atmosphere will still cause a hurricane to move in the direction of the flow infront of the mid level system or troughiness. So to answer your question really,,,,,,,NO they dont change the path if a they are like cat 4 or 5.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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The Florida Keys are now being evacuated. This is for visitors and mobile homes.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Bev
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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What effect might this have on 's path?
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU 09 SEP 2004
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL GLFMEX EXTENDING SWD FROM T.D NOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH SUPPRESSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SAVE A SMALL AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF AREA...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL PART...TO 25N96W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE MID-UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER FLORIDA WILL
BUILD WESTWARD PROVIDING AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE FORMATION OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN BAND OF ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO BY FRI MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 26N84W TO 23N87W TO 20N90W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
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Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Good morning and welcome back! Missed this site for the past 6 days.
Great posts on the WV loops.
The dynamic which will dictate this storm's solution is much more visible than with .
clearly the race is on between the trough approaching from the west and north west and the ridge still advancing in the ATL.
the trough into the GOM left behind by will play a role in this, and could be the point of convergence. Mets today are talking rather confidently that this trough will dissipate today and then allow a more right turn to the storm...could be.
my attention will be to that area over the GOM all day. Right now it looks like it is setting up as the zone of convergence between the still advancing strong ridge to the north and east of the storm and the advancing trough over the midwest US.
Watch how the upper air flows in this zone and we could see what may do...I don't like what I see so far by the way...
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doug
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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Ivan seems to have gone nearly due west for the last few hours. I know it is just a jog, but at the speed it is moving, each jog puts it well off course.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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1301Z Visible Close up of 's eye; You don't get to see many CAT 5 visible. Thank goodness!
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES13012004253NeIU2w.jpg
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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I have friends vacationing in the Caymans. Have they been asked to evacuate yet? I still think will pass south of Jamaica and head towards West Cuba and then the SE GOM.
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
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The last few frames, 4 or so, see a definite more move to the west than wnw...probably at the moment, moving wwnw...
Whether this holds...who knows. I would hate to be in Jamaica...
Worst case scenario is to slip through the Yucatan channel.
Can't get a feeling for this one...at all. I think with each passing day, the track will alter. In the last 24 hours, it has altered a lot. Any change in direction...(and there will be) will alter it more...
about 500 miles from Jamaica..and at 15 MPH.. (a perfect speed, really)...the hurricane will hit in the early evening tomorrow, in Jamaica.
Think the path will scrape the bottom, and they will get the worst of it...
we will see
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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you are correct, after it banked up against the mountains in Mexico, it did turn and move through Texas and Okl.
The biggest change to the atmosphere that I remember, was the large upper level high that persisted over the Gulf, as discussed it at the time.
Here is a great close up of Gilbert:
http://www.weathersatellite.info/gilbert.html
Tropical cyclone "rules"
http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/FrcstTechnq/forecastrules.html
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