Fletch5150
Unregistered
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I agree the 5pm should shift right to be in line with most models. I was surprised they bumped it a little left at 11. As usual the likes to follow the , so we may not see the shift unless that model bends more to the right. With the ridge building more to the West we may see this thing really slow down.
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Still W/O power in Palm Bay....yuck.......looks like has grown a bit in overall size, and a recent convective burst is occurring. He should move over Jamaica later, but as advertised, should re-strengthen when he gets past Jamaica. A dangerous hurricane. Should come in at or just south of Tampa and head NNE. GROANZZZZZZZZZZ!! I can't even get a cup of clean coffee!!
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I find it most interesting the path...when almost all of the other models (see attachment) take more easterly...and eventually into the Atlantic (of course, across FL).
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Kdubs
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Does anyone have a link to pictures from Grenada? I hear about them a lot, but haven't found them on the net?
Thanks
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South Orlando 
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
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Really am...and not wanting this thing to hit anyone. There doesn't seem to be any good scenario on the horizon, that I can see...except that the hurricane gets killed when it goes through Cuba....the long range forecast, however, seems a little in doubt. I sure have to hand it to the ...they are WAY ahead of the game..seem to have a great handle on what is going on. I will dispense with dire prediction of Mobile for the moment...anyone see anything out there, however, that would endanger my area?....hope for sure this doesn't do to Tampa..what the possibilities are....at any rate...here is a clip of the latest from the ...which is why I am wondering about things...
THERE IS STILL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IT BECOMES
UNCERTAIN AFTER THE HURRICANE CROSSES CUBA WHEN GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
THE HURRICANE COULD CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO OR COULD TURN
NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA. IN FACT...THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT FAVOR ONE
SCENARIO MORE THAN THE OTHER...AND BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO VERY NEAR AND EVENTUALLY OVER FLORIDA.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Oh Steve! I was so worried about you! Glad to hear you're okay...although without power. Yuck is right.
So, now they throw in some "shearing" to the mix. Why don't we throw in a couple of eggs, some water and make a doggone cake while we're at it!!! Ack! 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Morning Colleen!
FWIW, here's the accuwx pro graphic featuring 2 possible track scenarios...and ain't neither of them good (click attachment)
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Kal
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 50
Loc: Space Coast
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Think the is still leaning a little on the ensemble Phil? If it's still trending west maybe they are hedging their bets to some degree. The slight left shift at 11am surprised me, given the latest model runs available to the public. I completely expected a move eastward. Guess it's a good thing I'm a historian and not a weatherman.
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Kdubs
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Still W/O power in Palm Bay....yuck.......looks like has grown a bit in overall size, and a recent convective burst is occurring. He should move over Jamaica later, but as advertised, should re-strengthen when he gets past Jamaica. A dangerous hurricane. Should come in at or just south of Tampa and head NNE. GROANZZZZZZZZZZ!! I can't even get a cup of clean coffee!!
Hang in there, Palm Bay. I was without power in Orlando for 5 days and people in Kissimmee were without for almost 2 weeks. It will get better though. Fortunately, the 7-11 on the corner had hot coffee available (even though the line - and I'm not exaggerating - circled the store 2 times).
Good luck, you are in our prayers.
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South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Why do they say "CLOSE TO AND EVENTUALLY RIGHT OVER FLORIDA" and then shift the track to the left? Why don't they just leave the stupid thing there until the next update. Maybe they should only change the track twice a day, instead of 4 times a day. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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I have to ask this question so I can learn because I get lost when it comes to troughs versus ridges. We know we have a high that is sitting a little to the west of Texas that appears to be building to the east and southeast. We know about the high that is close to Florida and seems to be building to the west. Then we have the trough in the middle of the two highs that seems to be pretty close to Florida. My question is this; can two highs building in from opposite directions squeeze a trough and cause the trough to begin to retreat north? I know to many that this is a very dumb question but the only way for me to continue to learn is to ask it.
By the way, this has NOTHING to do about wishcasting to Texas. There is 0% of that happening and I don't want him here anyway.
This question just came to me as I was watching the WV loops and seeing how the trough seemed to be getting squashed by the two highs.
ShawnS
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Think the is still leaning a little on the ensemble Phil?
Excellent question...since I'm not a paying customer of their's, I'm not sure WHAT their take is...unfortunately, even if I DID know, I couldn't tell you anyway...that being said, I think you probably are hitting the nail squarely on the head...why else would their track be so much further west than all but the ? You may be an historian, but you also have a pretty good sixth sense.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Can they come up with one that says "GOOD"? 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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ROB H
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Clearwater, FL.
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The latest track from the is the worst case scenario for
the Tampa bay area. It would devastate pinellas county and
cause massive flooding in areas that are not already under
water.
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Eric_in_SC
Unregistered
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Thanks to all the folks who took the time to respond to my question about where to evacuate to from Charleston, SC if the necessity arises. I really appreciate the insights.
I am in an area where I don't really have any water concerns - but my house is completely surrounded by trees. Every big gust of wind causes my heart to skip a beat.
As a former resident of Jax, FL, I send my prayers to all residents of that great state.
Eric_in_SC
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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Ivan appears to have jogged west again and may actually just miss Jamaica to the south. Jamaica was my barometer. If it goes south of Jamaica, then I think it could quite possibly becaome a north central to NE Gulf hit. MS, AL, FL.
Another question....what is supposed to cause the shear? If it is the trough, what happens if the trough does not dig as far south??? Does mainatin strength til landfall?
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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simple explanation
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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collen,
remember that the panhandle is part of florida too even if most refer to us as lower ala. i am curious as to how much the forcast is off on the jamaica hit. if it is farther west and doesn't make that northern turn soon the panhandle could be the bullseye but the west coast is still gonna get hammered too. remember with francis we keep waiting for that north turn that never came. also one thing to remember is this year they are doing that 5 day thing instead of 3 so their forecast are gonna change more on the longer time frame
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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That is sooo right. that 5 day forecast creates lower confidence for days 4 & 5. Even so, with I would expect that n-NE turn at some point so I would not expect the panhandle to bear the brunt. Yes, it would be impacted- but not directly.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Fri Sep 10 2004 04:10 PM)
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Storm Cooper
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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If it travels to the south of Jamaica I would be a little more concerned for the panhandle.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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