rule
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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http://www.esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI1_wv_loop.html
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/gulf_wv_loop.gif
Look at that eye on second link!
Here's uniformed me predicting the eye misses Jamaica.
That SE droop over Al and GA worries me a little for myself.
Edited by rule (Sat Sep 11 2004 01:50 AM)
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Poor Jamaica....I challenge anyone to look at a IR loop of the last few hours and tell me this isnt a Cat5 now. Of course recon leaves right as begins to intensify. I bet pressure is near 920mb or so right now. What time does next recon get in there? I saw 5z, is that 1am? Still havent gotten around to learning zulu and all that. Still cant help but feel bad for the folks in the path, to bad they have been ignoring officials today and venturing out. Hoping for the best.
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rule
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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You are SO right. I'm sweating an off-shore track because what delt us was no picnic. I'm guessing an off-shore pass would be worse than .
Will I stay? Time will tell.
Gah!!! After 25 years of living here, we have this?! 
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kelcot
Weather Guru
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Loc: Canton, Ga
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wow! that second link looks so perfect that it almost looks fake
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Kelly
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The cyclonic circulation centered near 30N/ 63W seems to be nudging the ridge toward the west. How much effect will this have on the ridge. I.e., break it down, or build it up?
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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Not so sure it will miss Jamaica...I really hope so..I was just there a few months ago. It has been stair-stepping and if you extrapolate, it will hit the island.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Is it me or does the current WV show the ridge eroding and another ridge pushing down from the Northwest ? Looks like the path for the storm to move northward is starting to open
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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Not so sure it will miss Jamaica...I really hope so..I was just there a few months ago. It has been stair-stepping and if you extrapolate, it will hit the island.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Recon is ?inbound at this time. Looks like they are coming from Keesler AFB.
URNT11 KNHC 110142
97779 01424 70289 83200 95300 28015 84929 /6971
RMK AF980 1609A OB 18
To convert Zulu to your time. Subtract 4 hours for EDT, and 5 hours for CDT. This will give you military time. Subtract 12 from the military time and it will give you the correct time of the observation or flight, for your time zone.
Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 11 2004 02:00 AM)
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>>> Poor Jamaica....I challenge anyone to look at a IR loop of the last few hours and tell me this isnt a Cat5 now
I think it is...but whether it's a "Strong 4" or a "weak 5" does it really matter? They're going to see a whole world of s---
Pray for Jamaica
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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meto
Weather Guru
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that would cut off much farther west movement.
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tazmanian93
Unregistered
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You might be right, looks like an egg every couple frames. Anyone have a preference to the modles, with respect to accuray?
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Loc: Pensacola
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I agree with ya Phil, Strong 4, Weak 5 doesnt matter, people are enduring an ass kickin only mother nature can provide. By the way, is there any such thing as a weak 5? LOL Just prayin for the folks down there.
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meto
Weather Guru
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could be near 160 now......looks has started more north again.
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rule
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Personally, I can't see much beyond 12 hours (at the outside).
I've seen so many flip-flops with the "It's gonna hit here!!!"-type tracks that I've put myself on a 12 to 18 hour limiter.
So, based on that... http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
The VIS & IR floater still looks to me like a ridge-extension building to the NW of .
May it Weaken tomorrow. (and miss Jamacia tonight!)
Edit: With the eye... even so it's going to cause mass distruction.... 
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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HURRICANE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
955 PM AST FRI SEP 11 2004
A FORECAST ADVISORY FOR WAS RELEASED EARLY IN ERROR. PLEASE DISREGARD THE ADVISORY UNTIL THE FULL 11 PM ADVISORY PACKAGE IS RELEASED.
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Yeah, I read a forecast advisory 35 and thought that was a little odd.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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** WTNT24 KNHC 110148 ***
TCMAT4
HURRICANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
0300Z SAT SEP 11 2004
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE. THIS
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...
AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST
OF EASTERN CUBA FROM CABO CRUZ TO SANTIAGO DE CUBA. HURRICANE
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA ON
SATURDAY...AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL CUBA.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS
HURRICANE .
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 76.9W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 926 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT.......150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 76.9W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 76.5W
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.3N 77.9W...OVER JAMAICA
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.3N 79.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.4N 80.4W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.8N 81.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 30.0N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 35.5N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 76.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
I take it this is the one in error? Nice detective work.
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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I knew I didn't know much about this stuff but I guess I know less than I thought. I was about to ask if it looked like the trough seemed to be shrinking? Then you all come on and say that it may be close to making the move north. I think I'll leave it to y'all from now on.
ShawnS
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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If anyone was watching since 10:00...it's what I had feared. The folks who aren't evacing are the same folks who fear their property will be looted IF they decide to evac.... That's just not right, but I guess ther's nothing that can be done about it now....
Hunkering down, in the face of a CAT IV (or possibly a V) because they are more afraid to leave than to lock their doors...jezus...this is only the beginning...wait till it gets up here...Be afraid...be very very afraid.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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