Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Great link, thanks! 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Slightly weaker at 915mb, but that's picking nits. may be going through an eyewall replacement cycle again, as the recon notes that the current eyewall is weak on the south side (20mi. eye) but that there is a secondary wind max at a radius of 33mi. Max flight-level winds in the NW quadrant were 133kt.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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I just went by what the advisory said...
Guess the advisory was sent out before recon data came in?
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Hi, where did you see 915? Advisory still showing 910.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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mikeG
Unregistered
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URNT12 KNHC 120547
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0547Z
B. 18 DEG 26 MIN N
80 DEG 25 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2344 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 053 DEG 133 KT
G. 323 DEG 11 NM
H. 915 MB
I. 11 C/ 3084 M
J. 21 C/ 3079 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. WEAK SOUTH
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF977 2209A OB 06
MAX FL WIND 133 KT NW QUAD 0544Z. GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION.
SECONDARY WIND MAX 324 DEG AT 33NM.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Thanks
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Mooshie-SC
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 16
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Looks like the updated models are showing a sharp NE turn into SC after making landfall in FL. Anyone else seeing that?
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Seems like they would schedule recon to be there about 30-60 minutes earlier. So the new data gets in the advisory.
I guess that's why they don't-it makes sense.
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/530_50.gif
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/531_50.gif
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/695_50.gif
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/492_50.gif
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_50.gif
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_50.gif
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_50.gif
These are the models I have been looking at that have the furthest S and W than any other model and to this point to me the most accurate to this point.The S side track of the models are or get close to this track.If you look up the history of the you will see it is awful close to this point.
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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no.... looks like a gradual turn w/ a big cone of uncertainty.
I'm looking at wunderground 2am map
Edited by ShanaTX (Sun Sep 12 2004 06:31 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Javlin, they are further west than any of the Canadian models I've seen. Grand Isle and New Orleans? That puts a lot of area in the NE quadrant!
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Alright all, time for me to get some zzzzz's If not now I won't be able to stay up when I will really want and need to. Thanks for the insight and perspectives.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
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Mooshie-SC
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 16
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But isn't that track based on the that ran over 16 hours ago? I've noticed that the latest BAM, UKMET, and that were just run have it turning east much more quickly than the and run early yesterday. Weather Underground Forecast Models
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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the problem i have with the on there models is that everytime they throw a model out it's almost going NW.If you can not get the correct direction in the first 6hrs doesn't that just turn the the whole model into trash.They fail to recognize the effect of the ridge to the N.Yea they will get it right before long a blind man
throwing at a dart board will get lucky somewhere.The ridge is going to break down is it 81' 83' let's try get a handle on that part it's not to far away geeez.
Edited by javlin (Sun Sep 12 2004 06:56 AM)
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Look at the history of the model Dan every night about 11:00pm CDT Montrealboy has been posting them @ S2K.I have been watching them closely puts the to shame.
Yea Dan it does and I keep saying to this point seems far W to me to but what is the history of this storm.
Edited by javlin (Sun Sep 12 2004 06:47 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I mentioned this to Phil earlier. I guess it's safe now to mention it here.
Camille was forecast to hit between Ft Walton Beach and St Mark's FL. The watch was posted 36 hours in advance from Biloxi to St Marks. The warning went up 3 hours after the watch!, from Ft Walton Bch to St Mark's.
At 5 am the next day, 18 hours before landfall, the warnings were extended west to cover Biloxi.
At 9 am, four hours after the first warning extension, a second extension to New Orleans and Grand Isle,LA was issued.
Camille struck about 25 miles west of Biloxi at 11pm, on Sunday Aug 17th.
Contrary to , she had an extremely low pressure also.
Measured by Navy Recon to be 26.61" or 901mb, with a max flt level wind of 190mph.
*They are totally unpredictable!! Get ready now and pray you don't have to leave. If you do have to leave, you are ready to go right then.*
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john03
Unregistered
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SATS ARE UP
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mikeG
Unregistered
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IVAN MOVED!!!! NW MORE? ALOT MORE!
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Sats are back up, and has cleaned up his appearance.
The eye is smaller than earlier, and there is more outflow in the NW quadrant ahead of the storm.
The Gulfstream is also enroute to conduct High Level Recon.
Edited by danielw (Sun Sep 12 2004 07:30 AM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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What sats are you guys looking at?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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