mbfly
Weather Guru
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Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Thaks Phil. I'll take all the prayers we can get ! Looks like I'm stuck here come the proverbial "hell or high water"  Have been with DH (dear hubby or dumb hubby..... just depends) for 30 years now and don't think I could leave without him. As I said, his parents aren't going so he's not going to desert them. I will print out your message in hopes of swaying him, but it's doubtful. They just issued a mandatory evacuation for all of Alabama south of 1-10 so we now have some more family on their way to our house.
Have fingers and toes crossed, lots of spam and valium, and have issued prayers up to the Almighty. I'll keep ya posted; I'll be here until I can't be ....................... 
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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I'll have more on later, but if JB is harping on a major hurricane in Gloria with the wave exiting Africa...he's lost what little respect I might've had for him before now.
Best line I've heard with Jeanne is about the model tracks: "anything with a G to start its name is turning it north, the others are west." That's what we've heard with every other Atlantic hurricane thus far...what's to stop this one? It'll likely sit near the Bahamas for a day or two down the line and be one to watch; even if it turns NW or N, a ridge is forecast to build in by most of the models and turn it back west. Where? No idea as of yet and probably a week+ away. Let's watch first.
Of which, the current westward movement seems to be more of an eyewall replacement moreso than anything and there is still the very real possibility for this thing to come in further east than anticipated. There is also the possibility that it slows to a crawl over the central Gulf if it gets caught in the col region. Everyone in the warning area - yes, even to Apalachicola and points a bit further east - needs to watch this one. The slower it moves, the greater likelihood it goes east.
The 18Z models all trended further east with this storm than at 12Z...which were further east than at 00Z. Just something to watch. More later...
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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OK...up until I was served with papers about a year ago, I wouldn't do anything without my spouse...come Hell or High Water...as you said...all I can say is...
GOOD LUCK...I'M GOING TO MAKE A PERSONAL APPEAL TO THE ALMIGHTY...IF SHE'LL TAKE ME BACK INTO THE FOLD. 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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if you have a doubt you need to go. better safe than sorry.
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Put up recording of mobile bay cam since 7...
http://flhurricane.com/mobilecam.php
It will get big
but I'm leaving it on until the storm passes and making a mpg or avi of it after its said and done.
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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TV show Andromeda had the spaceship Andromeda doin a "Crazy " in their first season. Guess the writers are Clancy fans?
Back on topic.... Because of all of the good info here, I was able to pursuade The Nephew and his friends to pack up, gas up and leave New Orleans yesterday ahead of the zillions currently parked on I-10.
Thank you all!
'shana
Quote:
If you are fans of the Tom Clancy book or movie "The Hunt For Red October", watch out later tonight and hope we don't see a "Crazy "...
Sorry, couldn't resist...
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Read what you wrote Clark. Don't see how this storm goes easily out to sea. Even the first discussion said that it could west of the forecast...or some similar wording. With the outflow to the north and north west of pushing down on it... keeping it intact but a not so intense storm. The flow to the north is east to west and can see where eventually the high will build in again.
I've heard locally from people on TV.. maybe Bermuda, NC..
Meanwhile it went more west than expected to start with and seems Jeanne will do what many haven't done yet.. hit PR and the islands.
Something to watch..
as we watch make his move and see how they both dance.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Bioman
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
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wave heights are now 32.5 feet at buoy 42003 and the sustained winds are around 51 mph. bad time to be hanging on to a buoy. three story waves...impressive
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richisurfs
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
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I was just reading the 5pm discussion on TS Jeanne and when I read "thru the Bahamas and towards the Florida pennisula" I got the the weirdest feeling. It was like at this point I'm almost getting a defiant attitude towards these things ..like "come on, you wanna hit us again it doesn't matter because you will never win" Kinda stupid I know but anyhow I really "feel" that it's going to end up going out to sea and be a wave producer for us and thats all but you never know. The fact remains I've had it with these freaking things this year. If I'm not worried about my family getting hit here then I'm worried about the rest of my family getting hit somewhere else..i.e. in the panhandle and then you gotta start worrying about another one coming here. It gets old. ok, sorry guys...just venting a little...I'm praying for the people in the gulf who are going to get slammed by and I hope in the end it won't be as bad as it looks like its gonna be. If you're in harms way and they tell you to get out please do it. I won't even get into the stories friends have told me about going thru after they decided "not" to leave. It's not worth and this storm could be stronger.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> wave heights are now 32.5
That's assuming a 10' ceiling...if your ceilings are 8', then it's four stories high...coupled with possibly 18' of surge...
edit: Mike, how long do you expect Mr. Johnson's webcam to last?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Tue Sep 14 2004 11:29 PM)
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Mozart
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 37
Loc: Simpsonville, SC
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Someone mentioned that buoy earlier today that's right in the path...Wind speed is up to 45 knots, and waves are at 33 feet, while the pressure is droppling like a rock.
Buoy 42003
Edited to add:
Oh well, somebody beat me to it...
Edited by Mozart (Tue Sep 14 2004 11:33 PM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Tried to explain it to some children today as: when they fill up the washer with too many pairs of jeans and it goes to the spin cycle and the machine suddenly goes berserk. There are varying sizes and areas of storms circling around the eye wall inside and when a wide area swirls around you see the eye movement wiggle or wobble wildy. The overall movement is NNW (or whatever the advisory states) but from centrifugal force alone there are some wild swings within that path.
Next... or think of it like a sixteen wheeler that makes WIDE turns.. and has an unstable load.
Phil.. relax. You are giving good advice but I'm beginning to get worried about you. Picture you sitting up at 3am beginning people on IMs to please get out of Dodge .. And, you are right on most of what you said but people don't listen and they have their own strange priorities and reasoning.
I know.. I've been there.
Andrew.. stayed on Miami Beach. My ex-husband refused to leave. Mind you... was wild, glad I was there and not Kendall where my friend's house blew away but that was rare.. could hear the ocean and the pounding surf. It aint for the faint of heart. Fun to look back at.. I was terrified at the time though.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Not sure, but I'll leave it recording as long as it keeps sending images to the server.
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Thunder
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 29
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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I'm cluless about this stuff, but I love learning from you folks that aren't.... That being said, what can we here in Tallahasse expect to see from if anything. I'm imagining a little wind, with a lot of rain... Am I way off?
Thanks for any input.
T
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LI Phil
User
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Phil.. relax. You are giving good advice but I'm beginning to get worried about you. Picture you sitting up at 3am beginning people on IMs to please get out of Dodge .. And, you are right on most of what you said but people don't listen and they have their own strange priorities and reasoning.
Fair point bobbi, but I'm not just wavemongering or wishcasting...I am basing my warnings on what the and other professional mets around the net are saying...this is not a whimsical "CAT V Mobile Bay" with an Invest...
I'm glad you and others made it through Andrew.
But I can see the damage and destruction has already wrought...death total alone 60+ and I'll bet it's aready much higher...we just don't know yet.
I'm NOT trying to scare anyone needlessly (others will take care of that). I'm trying to say if a CAT IV if forecast to come your way in less than 48 hours...you might consider getting out of it's way...das all.
I'll tone it down, but I'd rather scare 100 people needlessly than have one person be injured or killed because they didn't take the threat seriously.
Any mets want to agree/disagree with me? I'll gladly take my lumps if you think I'm overreacting.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Bioman
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
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seems like that webcam isnt updating last image is still like 5:45
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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It's still set on standard time. And it's in Central Timezone.
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mbfly
Weather Guru
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Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Quote:
Phil and MBfly, based on the traffic I'm seeing here. 80 miles from Mobile. Mobile residents may be better off on Interstate 65.
Don't think so. Just talked to my son who is on 65 on his way to Montgomery. He has been on the road for almost 4 hours and is still 60 miles out !! He says they are averaging 15-20mph. Also heard that 98 east is backed up from here to Lucedale, MS. I think it would be almost be more dangerous to leave at this point. Maybe since all of the smart people left today, us dummies would have a chance of getting out very early tomorrow a.m. ..................... but I doubt it !
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LI Phil
User
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> what can we here in Tallahasse expect to see from if anything.
My best guess as to how to visually interpret this (maybe can spin some more magic) would be to look at this graphic. Then extrapolate as to where it will go inland (so far, that's Mobile). Then figure how close you are to the TS winds...unfortunately I don't have a US map handy, but I believe Tallahassee is just outside the cone...you SHOULD be fine windwise. However, those down by the coast will probably be seeing small surge and huge (10'+) waves Plus, any feeder bands that pass overhead may have twisters...so be on guard...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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palmetto
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Actually, it looks like we'll be inside the TS winds. Tallahassee is near the GA border at the very narrowest part of the panhandle.
We should be fine when all is said and done, however. Just pray that doesn't come further east.
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