Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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I believe latest OOZ UKMET and have this thing going across the state near Lake Okeechobee and then crossing the state to the WNW/NW with second landfall into panhandle. hasnt change much since last run.. Candian seemed to move to the right close to .
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Colleen A.
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Quote:
Yeah well, you could hit me with a rock...I'm on Socrum Lp and I-4.
I don't throw rocks at people. They usually boomerang and end up knocking me unconscious. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
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Sorry if this is a stupid question, but are those the latest runs of UKMET and ? or were they figured into the previous track?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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These are the latest runs.. 00Z 0924
NOGAPS - https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wx...;dtg=2004092400
UKMET - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
Edited by Lake Toho - Kissimmee (Fri Sep 24 2004 04:58 AM)
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Yeah... gutsy call by Ritchie for a repeat and GOM visit.
It's all about timing now, which is the fly in the ointment. Assuming the ridge peaks and subsequently weakens as projected, the location of Jeanne in relation to that event is key to the northward turn.
Right now Jeanne is moving too slow at 6 mph. She is now moving dead west, right on track... Port St. Lucie is 580 miles away. At the current speed of 6 mph we're talking 96+ hours till landfall. The predicts an increase in speed, but it's going to take a real kick in the butt (doubling her speed) to get Jeanne to make landfall in the projected timeframe of a little over 48 hours.
If she doesn't pick up speed soon, I think Jeanne will still be off the FL coast when the is predicting that the ridge weakens and allows the northward turn...
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Colleen A.
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Daniel...look at this loop...looks like she's reorganizing herself...check the outflow on all sides...
Jeanne Coming Back to Life?
Do you see how that H is shoving her to the west?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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I think this thing may make land fall earlier than expected maybe 48 - 60 hours.. Seems the models are leaning this way too.. or some of them..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Colleen A.
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Wow..they haven't really changed that much. Model (In my humble opinion) does not seem to catch the more westward movement...has it going more WNW or NW than west. Are you seeing this too?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Yep.. Dont think it has a good grasp on the ridge..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Colleen A.
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It will be interesting to note the forward speed on the 2AM update...doesn't look like she's crawling along to me.
But what do I know? 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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cjzydeco
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Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Yeah, mesmerized staring at the WV loop, which always leads one to speculate, but def seems to be scooting off to the west with a little more oomph.
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Colleen A.
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I'm getting this queasy feeling that Jeanne is (literally) going to pull a fast one on us...I don't sense that same urgency that we had with ...and we had a lot more time with than it looks like we're going to have with Jeanne.
It's almost like, "Well, okay, we'll talk about evacuations tomorrow, and we'll see what happens, and....."
I don't like the feeling I'm getting.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
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Well, the good news is that we'll find out if she's sped up at all in less than an hour.
The bad news is that we'll probably stay up til 5 to see if she's sped up after that, LOL.
There is no WAY I can sleep with these things lurking in the backyard....a nap here and there yeah...but a good night's sleep? FUGHEDABOUDIT......
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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cjzydeco
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Loc: Sebastian, FL
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I don't think we have any adrenaline left. I managed to make it to the store tody to get the few things that needed to be restocked, but I just couldn't motivate myself to start putting up those darned shutters! Guess I should forego the 2am update and get some zzzz's so I can wake up and get the fortress ready. 
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javlin
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Now I am reading and it is late 12:30 CDT for me 1:30 EDT for ya'll.Now I might be loop'in alittle,you guys need to hit the sack.Make another of it tomorrow,you guys need some shut eye.
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scottsvb
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Everyone remember the discussions come out about 9 hours after where they see the models. For example 11pm forcast was from 2pm this afternoon on the 18Z run. The Oz runs that we see now = 8pm which mean they will adjust the track and discuss it for the 5am adv.
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Clark
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Not much time for an update, but I'll go with what I have. No reason to change the philosophy from last night's update, except to change preferences on the future track. Jeanne should move W to WNW towards Florida at a steady clip the next couple of days, then slow down and turn northward along the coast. The storm may not come inland, but it should brush by ever-so-closely to the coast to result in tropical storm force winds felt along most of the shore. Contrary to a prior discussion, under this or their forecasted track, the coastline would NOT be in the right quadrant of the storm.
Still a chance for the ridge to break down to a small degree, but not enough to spare some landmass. Might see the storm continue northward once inland if the ridge does not break down, i.e. come in near Charleston and then keep going north instead of turning along the coast. The extent of the ridge is such to allow this possibility; further, the forward progress of the longwave trough in the west-central US is being slowed as a new wave develops near Oklahoma/Kansas.
We'll likely see hurricane watches up for Florida in the morning. Whether these get changed to TS warnings or hurricane warnings on Saturday remains to be seen dependent upon the future track. It'll have to stay a ways offshore, though, to only see TS warnings (erring on the side of caution instead of necessarily thinking hurricane force winds won't impact the coast).
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scottsvb
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969mb of jeanne
Edited by scottsvb (Fri Sep 24 2004 05:45 AM)
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Colleen A.
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Okay, so based on that info Scott, do you think they will adjust the track to the east or the west?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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scottsvb
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They will nudge it back to the NE to some degree cause the also went to the right. Really matters on the lead forcaster giving the discussion. I dont see the big curve. Im in line with a blend of the and Ukmet with more of a turn once inland to the NNW-N near Orlando.
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