RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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Sam's Club has generators up there. If that doesn't work, I have a Coleman 5,000 watt he could use and I e-mailed him about it. My only problem is I can't get it to him until Tuesday which sounds too late. If he wants to buy it instead (new in box), I paid $468 plus tax for it and it's still in the box (box is torn a bit though). But, big question - does he need 'clean' power for the medical equipment?
whoops - sorry - missed the all clear post he made.
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Fri Sep 24 2004 10:00 PM)
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
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Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
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I would make that drive if I hadn't worked it out. You are amazing thank you so much!
Now I just need to decide if that road trip would be enough fun 
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Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Saw Tom Terry(Channel 9 O-Town) discussing the /GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS models. He threw out the which still had Jeanne making the turn off the coast. Also, said he was shying away from the because both of them(that and the ) have had problems handling the high pressure ridge, and they've both had Jeanne moving much slower at this point in time. Basically he was saying a combination of the /UKMET and even the ETA(though he said it too is not as reliable with tropical systems) could pan out to be the best track. He was definitely emphasizing that everyone keep an eye on any type of shift to the west.
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Check the Surf
Edited by AgentB (Fri Sep 24 2004 10:02 PM)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETA_18z/eta36.html
ETA has it in south fl in 36 hours.... for what its worth
other source for models...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html
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Breeezy
Registered User
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Posts: 8
Loc: Crystal River, FL
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Where does the and UKMET take it?
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I hope it doesn't ever work down to the surface because it looks to be moving ENE towards Florida. It will more than likely push some of that moisture towards Florida anyway.
Dec 1 can't come quick enough this year!
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nandav
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 37
Loc: Pt. Charlotte, FL
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So even SW Florida is hardly out of the clear yet... even if we just get the tropical storm-type winds... Guess I'll have to stay tuned!
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RONJON
Unregistered
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Did anyone see the 18Z ? It has Jeanne hitting WPB to the north side of Lake O, & then north up the center of the state.. a definite west shift...& by the way..the 12 Z looks out to lunch..
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Ronn
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Loc: Seminole, FL
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Quote:
The winds in Tampa barely reached 40 mph from by the time it got there from the east coast.
Frances actually held together quite well over the peninsula for such a slow moving system...probably due to its large size. My location in Pinellas County received 55mph gusts from . What most people missed (and was under-reported by the media) was the onshore SW winds when entered the GOM. I recorded a wind gust of 70mph at Madeira Beach along the Pinellas County coastline with a hand-held anemometer.
Jeanne is a faster moving system than . As a result, if it does traverse the peninsula, it will maintain a higher intensity farther inland than did. This will especially be true if Jeanne landfalls as a stronger storm than . If moves farther south than the current official track, the Tampa Bay area could receive even worse conditions than it did from .
Ronn
Edited by Ronn (Fri Sep 24 2004 10:21 PM)
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Latest path up close & personal
New users:
These maps are based on the forecast coordinates from the National Hurricane Center. Do not focus strictly on the path. Large errors may occur. All areas under a warning must prepare.
If a watch or warning is issued for your area, follow the advice & directions of your local news source or official weather outlet.
The wind fields depicted are based on maritime winds and are not as large or concentric over land.
Full size image available here: www.skeetobite.com/weather
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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered
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True, Frank... the faster Jeanne moves the more lilklihood for it to strike slightly further south and penetrate well into the peninsula.
Last night I felt that some folks were stretching things when they predicted a GOM reentry. With Jeanne speeding up and the center of the high continuing a push southward, as noted in the update, this is no longer looking too far fetched.
IMO, those comments in the 5:00 p.m. discussion have set up a possible westward track revision in the next update or two.
AdmittedHacker
(still without a witty quote to fill this space)
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RONJON
Unregistered
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I Concur - i live in hernando bch (40 m north of clearwater) - i had gusts from to near hurricane force from the north on day1 and from the south on day 2. 71 mph from my roof mounted anometer. 12 in of rain . 28.91 in lowest pressure.. jeanne will be stronger, move quicker, and i'm afraid higher wind damage
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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my home had 40 year old concrete tile ripped from the roof in in what our insurance company suggested was an 85 mph down burst. So, you are right.. people shouldn't think that just because the eyewall isn't right over their head they won't see wind related problems. They might. Thanks for the reality check Ronn.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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Yes, and the 18Z is continuing its own trend of going left.
I think it is finally starting to catch on, and will not be surprised to see the track stay farther inland than currently forecast. N.C. could be in the right quad, and they have had their own problems this year also. A farther inland track would cause more weakening, but nobody up here needs heavy rains either. A prolonged period of onshore winds will likely pile up on the south-facing beaches of N.C. For those farther north, another heavy rain event.
Florida sees it first, and maybe strongest, the rest of the coast should feel it also.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Bryan Norcros' conversation with Max Mayfield makes a more concerned now about PBC/Broward area. Mayfield just said "I feel better now than before about having the Hurricane Warnings down to Florida City."
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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This storm just keeps on amazing me. Jeanne's over the water temp that could support a tropical storm but yet it's mataining everything all so well. This storm is exteremly efficent at maintaining itself, It's really going to strengthen once it's over the Gulf stream.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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My interpretation from that last interview is that the is realizing the strength of that high might actually jive with the et al. model solutions. Their jets and weather stations across the Southeast US have been sending baloons and sensors into the high pressure this afternoon and into this evening.
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
This storm just keeps on amazing me. Jeanne's over the water temp that could support a tropical storm but yet it's mataining everything all so well. This storm is exteremly efficent at maintaining itself, It's really going to strengthen once it's over the Gulf stream.
Using the car analogy; It takes less gas to maintain highway speed than to accellerate to that speed. So, it doesn't take as much heat to maintain or only gradually weaken (coasting) than it would to build it to the same level. While Jeanne couldn't build to its current level with those temps, it might 'coast' down quite slowly. As it isn't really fighting shear or other killers, it seems likely this is why.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Outflow seems to be looking better.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Justin in Miami,
They always send weather baloons up at weather stations, where do you think they get the isobars, isotherms and all that other good stuff? The and UKMET are yes trending to the stronger side with the ridge but then you have the /AVN with the weaker side to it. My forecast is a hybird of the UKMET and the because the likes to break down ridges out of no where and cause a whole bunch of problems. The UKMET is has a general rightward bias and sometimes makes ridges stronger then they normally are but it is an overall good model with thermodynamics and everything.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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