bob67
Unregistered
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does everyone think that people are taking this storm as serious as they should?
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Quote:
Here in Atlanta, it looks like the mets are hedging their bets and downplaying this as a minor rain event here in Atlanta, But my gut feeling tells me that we may get some significant rain out of this somewhere between 3-6" before it's all said and done. We'll see how they play it when the 11pm comes out.....
I agree, 3 to 6 " of rain is not that big of deal compared to 10" to 15" of rain that could fall. That seems like quite of a risk is taking. Tropical storms notoriously drop more rain then hurricanes.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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I am sure you are correct with that.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Living up on LI, I don't get the local coverage you guys get, so i'm basically reduced to for my tv info...the imminent Dr. Steve Lyons just came on and announced that "will not be another ". i'm so glad we have him around because otherwise us yankees would be in the dark...
on another note, just mentioned that they are going to be reporting on a home that was constructed just because of hurricanes...dome home maybe? that would be a cool segment...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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Prospero
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Gulfport, FL
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Looks like we are in for some heavy rain here in Sun City Center within the next hour or so.
As fast as it is moving I'd say some wind too.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I have a feeling this storm's not going to make a complete landfall, instead going to partially ride the coast around the periphery of the GOM ridge. Much like Allison only in the other direction.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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mbfly
Weather Guru
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Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Quote:
does everyone think that people are taking this storm as serious as they should?
Most of the people I know here were NOT ! I think a lot of people are going to be caught by surprise because they were blowing this off (pun intended) I guess it's too late now to say I was thinking cat 1 all along, but I'm still hopin' for east of Mobile (sorry p'cola !)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Living up on LI, I don't get the local coverage you guys get, so i'm basically reduced to for my tv info...the imminent Dr. Steve Lyons just came on and announced that "will not be another ". i'm so glad we have him around because otherwise us yankees would be in the dark...
on another note, just mentioned that they are going to be reporting on a home that was constructed just because of hurricanes...dome home maybe? that would be a cool segment...
I would bet you a dollar hand if I was a betting man that the newspapers up on LI will say tomorrow on the front cover that this a bad omen for us.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Weather Radio (or batphone as Colleen called it last year) just went off, Tornado watch has been issued for most of the west central Florida coastal counties, however it does strech in as far as Polk and Sumter counties. In effect until 8am, thanks to and her associated convection.
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
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jth home
Unregistered
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center very evident on PCB radar. Due south of PCB now.
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Ryan
Unregistered
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Quote:
Quote:
Living up on LI, I don't get the local coverage you guys get, so i'm basically reduced to for my tv info...the imminent Dr. Steve Lyons just came on and announced that "will not be another ". i'm so glad we have him around because otherwise us yankees would be in the dark...
on another note, just mentioned that they are going to be reporting on a home that was constructed just because of hurricanes...dome home maybe? that would be a cool segment...
I would bet you a dollar hand if I was a betting man that the newspapers up on LI will say tomorrow on the front cover that this a bad omen for us.
do you mean that even long island will get some heavy rain..bevuase thats where-I-be..haha thanks
long island is not the greatest place to be a weather fanatic huh?
hey any of you think theres a chance for long island to get a hurricane or T.S this season..please let me know
..ryan
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livin' the long island life....
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Don't know anything about LI, but I noted on the news just a few minutes ago that doppler is picking up some telltale rotations offshore to the south of Naples heading northward at a fair clip, possible indication of tornadic activity. Going to be quite a fun night in S and W Central Florida.
Yay...
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Londovir
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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arlene has really been playing softball with us all along. tightly clustered model runs during its entire life, intensity not far out of the realm of expectations... forward speed has been more or less what the called for also (maybe slower than forecast at first, but picked up the slack today). it's still got that lopsided profile that rabbit and others were progging, and it doesn't seem to be shaking it. the upper limit of intensity for storms like that was probably well represented by earl in 1998... an atypical cat 2 that came in as a 1. is more than likely coming in as a one.. maybe even at perdido key like i was reckoning (knock on wood, hombres). weather will all be over in places like.. oh, escambia, santa rosa, okaloosa counties.. walton, bay.. damn i know those counties almost by heart. inland south alabama.. it's coming fast enough that towns like brewton, atmore, monroeville... probably a breezy afternoon and evening. probably lots of severe weather as it goes north and weakens.. it will get to fairly high latitude with a good bit of its upper circulation intact (ohio, indiana, etc).. bank right.. dump good rains even though it's really trucking.. and i'm betting some severe weather as the upper winds get stronger out of the west and all that deep tropical moisture is charging north. sunday and monday should feature more inspired severe weather, which the hpc will document (and the weather channel will credit to the 'remnants of '). you guys know the drill.
pretty much everybody got right, 'cause hasn't been playing games with us. middle of the plate, up in the zone, not too much heat.. yeah, this one's almost out of the park. 'course, you folks in pensacola (or poor rickonboat, regretting his newfound ability to have his predictions come at least partially true).. probably don't see it my lackadaiscal way. at least it's only june.. a similar storm in august would have nobody close to amused.
prolly crack hurricane by daybreak officially (some recon obs suggest it already passed the threshhold).. so whoever has the closest date to june 10th/11th for first hurricane gets the trophy. way to guess. beat me by a mostly month.. er 4 weeks.
droop, haul out the camera, and drop us some scans if you can shoot anything worthwhile tomorrow.
later y'all.
HF 0344z11june
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mbfly
Weather Guru
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Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Is the convection dying down as it appears to be ? Does this mean it is weakening or just that it will die down some at night and flare back up again in the a.m. ?? And, I still don't see that much of a west movement...... looks like it's still going pretty north to me.
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Heather
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
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Quote:
Is the convection dying down as it appears to be ? Does this mean it is weakening or just that it will die down some at night and flare back up again in the a.m. ?? And, I still don't see that much of a west movement...... looks like it's still going pretty north to me.
North with a hint of west, maybe...
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When it rains, it pours...
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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HF hit the nail on the head with it all. Closest prediction, first storm or hurricane, that I could gleam from the list was the birthday boy, Keith234, who called first storm on June 10th.
11pm is coming out now...hurricane warning from Pascagoula to Destin; pressure 989mb, winds still 70mph but projected to 75mph at landfall.
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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still a TS at 11
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LI Phil
User
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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so whoever has the closest date to june 10th/11th for first hurricane gets the trophy.
HF 0344z11june
well the 11 is out and is still a TS...birthday boy keith came ever so close to nailing the EXACT date (assuming she is upgraded at some point tomorrow)
so my bet with jason is still in play....he's drawing blind and holding a pair of bullets, not knowing i already hold a flush... but he could still bluff me out of the pot on the river
thought FER SHER they'd make her cane ...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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HCW
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Loc: Mobile,AL
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HURRICANE WARNING PASCAGOULA MS TO DESTIN FL
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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The storm I think has finally found the ridge the cor.for the day go
24N 84.9W
>1.0 >.1
25N 85W
>.7 >.2
25.7N 85.2W
>.7 >.4
26.4N 85.6W
>.7 >.5
27.1N 86.1W
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