Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Visible imagery at 1215UTC shows evidence of weak convective banding now in the immediate vicinity of the centre, and also in a band offshore of the Carolinas and Georgia - seems to be getting better organised, but still resembles a subtropical cyclone in my opinion.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Skippy
Unregistered
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Well Rich, it's going to miss Florida so there's very liittle interest on this board today. 
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Actually, the lack of interest is not true for me. I am always interested in the ones that are not going to bother Florida, its the ones that are going to bother Florida that I am afraid of. Interest in that case is not a strong enough word. There may not be hundreds of posts because there will not be a panic state. But people all over the world view this board signed in or not.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Visible imagery would suggest that there are several low level swirls within a larger circulation. Convection remains persistent and strong to the east of the centre, with weaker convection near the immediate centre and also continuing in the band offshore of the Carolinas. Waiting for recon now.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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partially true, but there are folks outside of florida who dig this site too. 'sides, it's saturday morning and we've got one of those 'might be' systems, so the boards aren't jumping.
nhc likes to get all philosophical about systems like this... it's likely to be called subtropical unless a couple of thunderstorms blow near the center. as is it's sheared and fighting subsidence... it may not get the call with recon... but i'd put money on it getting a classification by the time it comes in tomorrow (late morning sunday near georgetown is my guess as either a weak TS or subtrop). the ingredients for a strong system aren't lined up (i wouldn't say they aren't there.. put that low east 100 miles and it'd be a solid TS further up the coast). as this thing moves inland it should slow down, but heavy rainfall amounts should be isolated due to the structure of the system and the fact that post-landfall convection should become more diurnal. i'm not thinking it'll do much more than did. but then, this is still a lot for june.
there are a couple of fairly energetic tropical waves out in the eastern atlantic coming across, too. not very high amplitude and unlikely to do anything out there. still, the same features midway into july would be much more interesting; that time is drawing near as well. i reckon we'll see some activity next month before things really get going aug/sep.
HF 1653z25june
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Recon plane has just took off
223
URNT11 KNHC 251639
97779 16324 70308 87100 70100 13014 70801 /5754
RMK AF302 01BBA INVEST OB 01
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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It looks like the low level center collapsed. It's possiblethe LLC is repositioning itself further to the north and east. Hard to say though... it looks like a real mess though.
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Storm Cooper
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 PM EDT 25 JUN 2005
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN
INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 250
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. DATA RECEIVED
FROM THE AIRCRAFT THUS FAR INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS NEITHER A
WELL-DEFINED WIND CIRCULATION NOR CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE...BUT HAS
DEGENERATED TO A TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
DESPITE THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION...THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS TO
NEAR 35 MPH IN SOME OF THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS WELL OFFSHORE.
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN
$$
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Who wuda thunk it!! The low pressure center connected to that glob is over the Florida peninsula. Ok! now we know where the low went. It is very interesting to me that despite the lack of danger in this particular storm. We can see little circulatory rain showers on the radar moving in counter-clockwise motion. Weather is marvelous!
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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looking at the latest visible imagery does anyone think the system may be organising further to the east. There are some indications of a circulation, but whether it reaches the surface is another question. Good call for , at least its nothing yet...
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Sorry for the off topic post. All MODS please disregard my e-mails for a new password. I am ok now, thanks.
10 -4
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Jun 25 2005 11:18 PM)
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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it isn't concentrating it's energy. the stuff moving out east of north carolina may continue to fester, but stuff just hasn't come together like it needed to, in spite of a lot of the ingredients being present.
heck of a wave just came off of africa. watch it melt like the wicked witch as it goes out into the ocean.
HF 0102z26june
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Clark
Meteorologist
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HF...interestingly enough, the (and on some runs, the ) actually keeps that wave a trackable entity -- weak low -- into the central Atlantic. SSTs are well above average there -- marginally favorable across the entire basin S of 15N as of this week, which is the earliest I can remember -- and the subtropical jet has finally begun to move northward, now largely north of 20N.
That said, it'll likely still fizzle, as the warm waters out there are really shallow, but if it is able to hold together (in some way shape or form) to the central Atlantic, it'd meet much more favorable waters. Of course, it'd also meet a lot more shear (as of now), but that could change. The whole area between 15-23 or 25 N from the islands east to about 40W has some of the highest heat content values in the entire basin right now, even moreso than the NW Caribbean. All of it bodes for a quick start to the season, likely once the subtropical jet retreats a bit more and the waters near the coast warm up just a tad more.
We'll see if the and are catching onto something with this...but alas, I'm off to D.C. for the next week. 94L isn't likely to amount to much -- shear is low but waters there are only marginal, with the baroclinic energy for the other part of the system likely winning out over everything else. The surge of tropical moisture will bring some rains to the southeast coast, but I don't think we'll see any development out of this. There is a weak low-level swirl -- probably not even a complete circulation, but a stretched out swirl -- removed to the west of the deepest convection SSE of Hatteras with perhaps a mid-level vortex on the northeast side of the deepest convection. Just don't see anything getting going there, and as mentioned in the first post -- time isn't on its side.
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Pete Creedon
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Nantucket MA.
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Will it strike Nantucket?
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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No one can answer that as to the precise landfall. I would as my data goes put this "rain maker" on land about the SC/NC border. Just my take 
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Mobile,AL
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Anouther couple of hours over water and things would have been interesting. Nice mid level spin
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmhx.shtml
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MikeG
Unregistered
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noticed a flare up of convection this morning south of cancun along the coast and off of belize.... Looks pretty interesting...will have to see it anything to it.... i think this is the same wave (parts of) thats was moving west in the carribean....looking to see how pressures are in the area....look a little high....and upper level winds are a little strong.....**looks like 92e will become a hurricane in near future...susprised not a TS yet
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1025 AM EDT 26 JUN 2005
RADAR AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED
NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN MOREHEAD CITY AND
CAPE HATTERAS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FROM SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH...ALONG
THE COAST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Prospero
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 267
Loc: Gulfport, FL
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I wonder if anything might develop in the area southeast of Texas. I don't know why it has my attention.
Nothing seems to be mentioned, maybe I am paranoid.
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Gulfport Florida Webcam - Gulfport Florida Weather Station - Clearwater Beach Cams
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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It has my eye too, but the conditions are going to have to come together and obviously they have not to this point. We have an elevated chance of rain on Tuesday this week which is all the recognition it is getting so far.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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