dem05
User
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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You came to the plate man...Good explain... Thank you!
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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I know i reread some part 2 okay maybe three times but it was helpful and informative. Couldn't ask for anything better. ( Except a quiet hurricane season)
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PolkBB
Verified CFHC User
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I think that makes some sense; the rotation of the earth is bound to be stronger towards the poles and a larger or stronger system is going to create a "mini-effect" due to it's spin?
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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This is tough,I could make a real case for hitting Miami,and most could make a case for it hitting N.O.Very tough call.Can we all agree that it is starting a northern curve?This one will drive us all nuts.Can we agree that if it continues to slow down,the track will shift to the east?Can we all handle all this action this early?We have along way to go!Can we agree that is going to be a major hurricane?
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Why would this bouy, south of where the storm currently is (bouy=28.9 N, 89.4 W, storm=29.4 N, 90.1 W) still have decreasing pressure and increasing winds... the wind direction is beginning to shift, so that tells me the storm has passed, but I don't get the wind speed and pressure... This has been my bouy of interest all night... I guess the bouy numbers are from 11 CDT and the storm number from midnight CDT, but even at 11, it was north of the bouy...
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=BURL1
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Clark gave a great explanation. He is right, but I feel with forcasting these things is size doesnt matter of a storm. Examples are Mitch and Gilbert. Gilbert was large and stayed WNW ( although they didnt expect a florida hit but did think it was going to Tx or LA) and Mitch, well we all know that he was suppose to go NW into the Gulf then turn NE and maybe hit florida or just skim it thru the key and the Bahamas. It went not only w but ssw before the turns weakning over the hills of Central America.
Thing I look for are strength and position of ridges. That determines the flow. They dont go poleward no matter how big or strong they are. Its based on many things which clark did describe. Main thing is troughs eroding and changing the FORMAT of the shape of the RIDGE. Currently its almost a e-w ridge and extends into the eastern gulf. A shortwave currently coming down near Cindy combined with Cindy wake ( weakness over the central and northern gulf) will erode the ridge. How will the Ridge take shape? Thats the question the and mets want to know. Stewart was right on with that. We expect the ridge to get squashed and slide se some over the bahamas and have a NNW-SSE shape, possible N-S by Friday. By then where is ? Havana? south of there? By later in the weekend Sunday (abouts) expect the ridge to try to move back towards South Florida and taking due N then eventually NNE or NE thru Georiga maybe?
What do I think???? Well All I know is like most have said,,,,we dont. We do think that he will be near Havana and Keywest by Friday sometime.
Lets not forget Bonnie... she showed us the flow was more ENE then NNE direction the flow was,,, but the models didnt show that and showed Charlie moving due N..he went NNE-NE. Her weakness erroded the NW part of the ridge over the Bahamas. So timing of Cindy and the shortwave of how long it stays will determine of much the the ridge is squeezed and pushed. That will drive .
scottsvb
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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As of 1am EDT Cindy pressure up to 998mb. other than that no surprises.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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All eyes on ,this one could be one we talk about for a long time.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Why would this bouy, south of where the storm currently is (bouy=28.9 N, 89.4 W, storm=29.4 N, 90.1 W) still have decreasing pressure and increasing winds... the wind direction is beginning to shift, so that tells me the storm has passed, but I don't get the wind speed and pressure... This has been my bouy of interest all night... I guess the bouy numbers are from 11 CDT and the storm number from midnight CDT, but even at 11, it was north of the bouy...
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=BURL1
It appears that the pressure is still dropping. The nearest station, I can find, to BURL1 (Buras C-Man Station) is the Weather Service observation at Boothville (29.2N 089. 2W) . Around 25 miles NE of BURL1.
0100Z reported wind ENE at 23kts gust to 33kts, pressure 29.78" Sea Level pressure of 1008.5mb
0200Z report. wind ESE at 23kts gust to 35kts,pressure 29.77" sea level pressure 1008.1mb
PK WND 13038/0355 (peak wind at 0355Z, ESE at 38kts)
0436Z pressure down to 29.66"
Edited by danielw (Wed Jul 06 2005 05:22 AM)
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Midnight readings out... pressure starting to increase/winds decrease.... It was just odd seeing the pressure still drop after the LLC passed.
P.S. I am now getting that long expected rain... I must have been the only place in town that didn't rain all day. It was almost like the Lake made the storms go away (I know, impossible!)...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Wed Jul 06 2005 05:22 AM)
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Dennis better keep its butt out of Pensacola. was ENOUGH!! Seems like we're in Hurricane Ally these days.
Dennis the Menace is on the loose.  Looks like we're in for a rough Hurricane season. Already feels like August!
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
Edited by SirCane (Wed Jul 06 2005 05:21 AM)
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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Hope everyone in the watch areas gets thru the night safely.
As far as goes - seems like another 'hurry up, get ready and wait' situation.
'shana
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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New Orleans Moisant Intl Airport
wind NE at 34kts G40KT Peak Wind NE at 45kts/0501Z
New Orleans Lakefront Airport
wind NE at 43kts G55KT Peak Wind NE at 55kts/0505Z
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GUEST
Unregistered
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the track is almost a spitting image of . They said would go north of jamaca it came close i predict a similar landfall. Its sad to say I belive Pensacola landfall give or take 20 miles in each direction. Its to similar like and the condtions are the same ridge over florida trough coming down. Like a funnel a P-cola is in the middle. Just a crappy time to live in P-cola right now.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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0156 AM
FLASH FLOOD GULFPORT 30.39 N89.07W
HIGHWAY 90 CLOSED IN SECTIONS FROM GULFPORT TO LONG BEACH
DUE TO HEAVY SAND AND STANDING RAIN WATER. SEVERAL STREETS ALSO FLOODED IN DOWNTOWN GULFPORT.
For additional storm reports from New Orleans NWS office use link below.
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KLIX/nwus54.chunk.html
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CMS
Unregistered
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Dennis is brewing but we are ignoring what is off the coast of Africa.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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These are edited versions of the latest Advisories for Tropical Storm Cindy and Tropical Storm . Full advisory available on the Main page, or the links below.
TROPICAL STORM CINDY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005
...CINDY PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.7 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.
CINDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/060834.shtml
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TROPICAL STORM ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005
...DENNIS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH
...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES... 445 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 475 MILES... 765 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...DENNIS WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/060846.shtml
Edited by danielw (Wed Jul 06 2005 09:13 AM)
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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I am so happy to see that the NWS decided to add the Causeway Bridge to the highways designated in red on their Ridge Radar.... That makes it much easier to see where I live..... Way to go NWS for making good changes in the middle of storms!
Man... I must have spoken too soon.... perhaps the bridge was closed or something and that's why it got placed on the map.... Needless to say, it is now gone...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Wed Jul 06 2005 09:50 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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This is available in it's full version on the Main Page. I am posting it here to give those that might skip the Main Page the same information. (I would rather not have to post it at all. But this gives us ample planning and preparation time to do what has to be done. Please prepare...just in case.)
TROPICAL STORM DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH . THERE ARE PLENTY OF CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS FROM AND AFWA ARE 3.5 ON THE SCALE. OBJECTIVE NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.0. SO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS.
THE SHEAR IS LOW AHEAD OF . IN FACT...DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD AN AREA OF 20 KT BELOW AVERAGE WIND SHEAR...AS INDICATED IN THE EXPERIMENTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION PRODUCT PROVIDED BY NOAA/CIRA.
IN ADDITION...BOTH SHIPS AND THE MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION. THE LATTER BRINGS TO 121 KNOTS AND 935 MB...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE BUT CALLS FOR A MAJOR DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THERAFTER...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED UP TO 72 HOURS...INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE AND ONE GROUP SHOWS A TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE OTHER AN
EARLIER TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/060305.shtml
Edited by danielw (Wed Jul 06 2005 09:48 AM)
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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There is growing confidence that will not directly impact South Florida other than rain. The model is indicating the furthest easterly track that ultimately takes into the eatern GOM than on io the Florida panhandle.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Wed Jul 06 2005 10:19 AM)
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