FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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which is??? 
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
Actually,Skeetobite, if I'm reading things right from your first map over Cuba, then on the second map, isnt the 8 am Friday near South Fl supposed to read Sat, thus the other one Sun? Either way, I love your maps despite the fact that you keep going over either my house in Kissimmee or my house in FWB. I sure wish you stop that! 
Thanks. Sorry about the errors, had a small problem with the days of the week. This has been fixed.
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
WTSP must get there temps from shallow waters.
Nah, they have a cup of water sitting outside of their studio. The put a thermometer in it once a day 
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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It may be true that they get their temps from the shallower waters. Dick Fletcher said last night that in the 20+ years he's been here, he's NEVER seen the Gulf temperature at 91 degrees.
I'm not yet ready to say that the track won't shift back towards the left, however, when the models begin to trend to a certain place over a number of days, it's a pretty good indication. Even if it just HUGS the western peninsula of Florida, those temperatures are going to be a problem. And if it does go over the more moutainous areas of Cuba, it may have time to regroup and explode IF it hits those temperatures.
Notice there's a lot of IFS in there.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Posts: 184
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Thanx for your insight on your blog...very informative.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Quote:
which is???
That the high off the east coast of FL would move farther east and allow to move farther east,thus putting south Florida in more danger.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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So what you are saying is the track may shift a little east but the general NNW motion should continue through landfall. So the exact location of landfall really depends on A) when the NNW turn occurs and B) the exact angle. Ft Walton/Destin still my spot.
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Hey Colleen, better get ready there. 12Z has center going right over Tampa.
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 331
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Looks like our county will be spared......for the time being.......Weatherchef
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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I've been watching the 12Z run being worked on at , and I got to say it's interesting comparing it to the 0Z run from earlier in the day. Being a mathematician, I'm a little disturbed at how so far the plot is concave up versus concave down through 12hrs. In other words, the 0Z run had it 12hrs into southern Cuba by means of an "upside down" bowl curve, whereas the newest run is going upwards into Cuba.
Granted, storms don't have to follow patterns of nice smooth continuous curves...but the concave down pattern from earlier made me think of the bermuda high acting to "shunt" the storm downward and keep it depressed as it moved west. If models start seeing upward concavity, I begin to imagine the high weakening and not preventing the poleward movement as much as it has in the past.
Of course, since my degree is in math, I'm just throwing darts in the wind....a hurricane strength wind, mind you. If we all don't get wiped out by the storm, I'm going to have some great test questions for my Calculus students this fall, though....
Edited by Londovir (Thu Jul 07 2005 04:56 PM)
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Steve don't say such a thing!!!!!!!!
I have things I want to do this weekend not things I would "have" to do!!!!
Colleen - hurricane party? j/k
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bob895
Unregistered
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With people saying that the gulf temperatures are the highest in 20 years this worries me because we could see one hell of a storm....maybe even cat 5??
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Big Daddy
Unregistered
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Quote:
WTSP must get there temps from shallow waters.
Gulf temps reported by all Tampa TV stations are intended for the recreational audience, not for mariners. At least one reports the temp as measured at Clearwater Beach.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Thanks, Steve....  I needed to hear that like I needed another hole in my head. This has been an insane day. I have the stomach flu, I have relatives visiting London who we are waiting to hear from, my sister-in-law has just been put into the hospital, 34 weeks pregnant with a possibility of delivery in 24 hours because of severely high blood pressure, and now I might be dealing with a large hurricane coming over my head.
At least it's only ONE model doing it...I take a little comfort in that.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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what are you talking about? Link please..
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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sorry to hear about that colleen i hope all is well.....and i know what u mean like we need to be getting prepared...lol....well hope u get to feeling better...and lastnight watching the news one meteorologist said that the ETAH...i think.not for sure...had it going straight up florida....as a cat 4.....
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Posts: 184
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They've actually been sticking with that for a couple of days now...wasn't it Donna that did a similiar path?
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Colleen - check your pm in a minute.
I pulled up that link someone had posted and every one of the maps show landfall between Panama City and Tampa. There was only one that showed a landfall West of NO.
darn, darn, darn.
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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You watch the numbers:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT4+shtml/071431.shtml
They have been going up everyday. Cocoa Beach was a 6% yesterday,
although 11% isn't high, 5% a day can make a difference.
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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again, that is because the storm is getting closer to you. Not that the track has hcanged to bring it closer. I bet you will find that NO has increased it's % as well.
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