Shalafi
Weather Guru
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Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
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(Disclaimer so no one accuses me of wishcasting)My hope would be that any further hurricanes are only fish spinners. In reality that wont happen so I'd really rather the Carolinas take a hit or two before we have to deal with it again....
heyyy... you can keep your hurricanes. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Jul 11 2005 03:20 PM)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Hey I made my own out of 5/4 in by 6 in treated top choice decking boards... it was so easy... total costs running about $125.00 per window, some of my windows are 3X6 too, price includes all shutter hardware, wood, silicone paintable caulking, stainless steel screws, and four coats of paint.. and they won't rot or rust and are a full inch thick... they're of the board and batten design... hardest part is all the painting... piece of cake building them.... oh, and they really look nice too... I should have done this 20 years ago....
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Posts: 184
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The 11 is out...amongst other things says is doing better than .
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Well, TD 5 still remains a TD at 11am...struggling to get organized, but has the nice mid-level feature to base itself off of -- kinda like . is proving to be a rather substantial rainfall event for the southeast, including bringing rain to areas that both don't need it (landfall area is already ~15" above normal for the year, I believe) and that could use it further north.
That said, as I mentioned in one of the edited posts, can we please not have any of the wild speculation with regards to the ultimate landfall point in the US for TD 5? It's not even named yet and there are certainly no guarantees that it will affect the US. Saying that you believe it might affect a certain area is fine, but saying that it should impact some area isn't as much...and saying that it will impact a specific point isn't really okay. It's still too far out into the future to call, and remember -- there are people, both here on the boards and not, that are still cleaning up from and may well be under the gun from TD 5 down the road. Thanks...
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The Superensemble isn't doing as well this year so far as it did last year, but it never does terribly well early in the season....plus the fact that we've had a good number of storms that probably thus far that probably don't have similar storms over the past few years in the training period for the model to lead to better forecasts. With more storms down the line -- time to better assimilate how the other models have changed for this season and adapt the model to those biases and tendencies -- the model will do progressively better with time.
Remember as well that about half of this season's forecasts come from , with most of the other half from and Cindy. With a relatively small sample size, any model that does really well with one storm and average with the others may stand out. The Superensemble has been very close to the ensemble mean most of the season, meaning that the historically best models aren't doing as well as they usually do...but it's still early. is historically one of the better models, having some troubles last year, but with very good consistency along the MS/AL border & timing wise with , it's starting to make up for that. Only time will tell which one comes out on top.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Orlando, FL
Unregistered
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I wonder if it'll go on the east coast, or the gulf. If it does go into the gulf, I think I will be an eastern gulf storm because if it is struggling on which area of water to go into, it ought to be close to the Atlantic. We'll see in a week and a half. 
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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The model guidance, especially as closely bundeled as they are should be enough for now on 'Emily'...it will be north of as it enters the western Carribean. Anything beyond that is too speculative to be very credible. Form me it is enough to know that attention will need to be payed through out the period as it will definitely be close enogh to the peninsula on Friday to be a threat...We'll know more in 3 days on where it may go.
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doug
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drcrazibob
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: Daytona Beach, Fl
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Clark,
Sorry, if anyone took me serious by saying Daytona Beach, my apologies. I think it's pretty obvious that no one wants a hurricane or storm coming their way. I sure don't. As it stands I've been through 3 hurricanes, one tropical storm in NY, 2 Tornadoes, and about a dozen blizzards! I'm stormed out!
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dumbo
Unregistered
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Aren't we taking ourselves a little too seriously this morning. Come on...if somebody wants to throw out a wild prediction on TD5, then more power to them. Give me a break. Who do they harm by doing that? Get a grip.
Edit -- no, I don't believe so. I'm not getting into a battle of anything here, but there are ways to make predictions for TD 5 -- saying it is going to make landfall at a specific point along the coast is not the way. A forecast contest can be made in the appropriate forum, but it's not going to involve landfall, not 7-8 days out (if it occurs). --Clark
Edited by Clark (Mon Jul 11 2005 03:22 PM)
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Quote:
Clark,
Sorry, if anyone took me serious by saying Daytona Beach, my apologies. I think it's pretty obvious that no one wants a hurricane or storm coming their way. I sure don't. As it stands I've been through 3 hurricanes, one tropical storm in NY, 2 Tornadoes, and about a dozen blizzards! I'm stormed out!
yea i think everyone was just kidding... but the moderators gotta do their job.. i guess....
Hey i bet (if they have not done so already) come up with Storm disorder disease. 
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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But ... my new shingles look so pretty. 
This does indeed have the feel of last summer where every weekend it was another storm to watch. And I stress weekend -- what an odd thing that they always seem to make their U.S. landfall on a weekend.
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Quote:
But ... my new shingles look so pretty.
This does indeed have the feel of last summer where every weekend it was another storm to watch. And I stress weekend -- what an odd thing that they always seem to make their U.S. landfall on a weekend.
I know.. we need a mid week.. long weekend situation... (just joking) 
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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hurrwatcher
Unregistered
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I must say, I have been watching this website for two years now and am addicted! Whenever there is even mention of a wave, I am here looking at the predictions and ideas that everyone has, from expert to novice. Thank you to the owners/moderators who make this site so great.
One suggestion: spell check?? It's like fingernails on a chalkboard to see things like "huriccane" and "evecuation".
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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not that we have any choice in the matter, but i prefer the weekends, it gives us working people more time to get ready...
Survived
Charley
Frances
Jeanne
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Hey guys:
Please look at the loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
To me it looks like the TD #5 is moving maybe WNW and I really think we will have a TS Emily by 8pm tonight.
The dry patch of air infront of TD#5 is shrinking. There is circulation , the overall distrubance seems to be getting larger.
Do we know what the Bermuda High will be like in 5 days?
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Quote:
South Florida would be as good a place as any right now... Just keep that B!%@& out of the GOM by all means.. I think the east coast is just about due for one now... GOM needs a break...
i hope you don't mean me up hurr in the northeast..on long island we've gotten prreetttyy freakin lucky and unfortunatley i have to agree with you, we're due ..but lets wait a couple years..bumer, i like the name emily..lol 
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2005 Atlantic Season
Named-13  
Hurricanes-7
Major-5
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
Edited by Ryan (Mon Jul 11 2005 03:48 PM)
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Yes i saw that also on sat image
Bermuda High I heard, will be, NOT GOOD FOR US
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Stinky Pinky
Unregistered
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Emily will most likely make landfall somewhere between Savannah, GA and Charleston, SC on Monday July 18th as a strong cat 3 hurricane, I am pretty sure of this having tracked storms for some time now. This storm will be retired after causing extensive damage. You can take that to the bank. Thst is all for now.
why should i trust someone with a stinky pinky? -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Jul 11 2005 03:36 PM)
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Its funny i had the sat image up earlier and 5 was running just north of the 's predicted path.
Since 11 am changed the path slightly south. 5 seems to me to be running quite a bit north of that path now.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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if the northeast did get one however, it would be early sept. porbably becuase of the water temp up here, you poeple in GOM are spoiled with your warm water..the water is prob. like 70..not favorable for hurricanes..am i right?
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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