danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005 edited~danielw
...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING NEAR 11N25W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF THE POSSIBLE CIRCULATION FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 25W-27W IS DISORGANIZED AT THE PRESENT TIME. CONVECTION TO THE SW APPEARS TO BE CONNECTED TO THE OVERALL CIRCULATION.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS ARE SURGING NORTHWARD ON THE E SIDE OF THE WAVE AND MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL INCREASE NEAR OR OVER THE ISLAND
CHAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/241800.shtml?
I don't see any mention of a Hurricane.
Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 24 2005 11:43 PM)
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NONAME
Unregistered
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I don't see any mention of a Hurricane.
I know It not even a storm yet but could it become it looks like it could be a depression in a couple of days
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dem05
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Quote:
is it me or is Franklin moving a different direction....
moving sw???
More to the SSW, but this is not just a wobble as you mentioned, it's been going on for hours now (going on 4). This is starting to evolve into a trend. Interested paties in Eastern Florida may wish to look at shortwave satellite from here on out tonight, sun is down, but circulation still exposed enough. The trough may strike out after all. If this trend continues into the morning, we have a whole new ball game with Franklin and the African Congo line will become something to discuss later.
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NONAME
Weather Guru
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More info on the eastern atlantic tropical wave I was talking about earlier
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LOW MAY BE FORMING ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
POSSIBLE CIRCULATION FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 25W-27W BUT IS
DISORGANIZED AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE WAVE IS PART OF THE
LARGER MORE -RELATED CIRCULATION EXTENDING TO THE SW. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... OTHERWISE
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS ARE FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 24W-32W.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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found some great images from aftermath from NWS office in mobile.
check them out
Also could this be the future of Hurricane Proof Homes?
Check this out:
I've seen this on the news before, but its first time i had a good look it.
also Franklin looks like he might wanna take a vacation to the south, instead of the Cold north Atlantic. Will see in the morning!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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pedro
Unregistered
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Tropical storm Franklin is starting to make a south west movement from what i see in the satalite view it is taking a south turn
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Yeah, I'm seeing that too, but it seems more south-easterly than south-westerly on IR, with the southerly component speed increasing every hour it seems.
Maybe I'm just reading it wrong...
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recmod
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
The also said it is trying to form a low level circulation this look like it could become are first Cape Verde Hurricane
Ummmm......doesn't Emily qualify as the first Cape Verde hurricane??? Even though Emily did not reach hurricane strength until in the Caribbean, it was classified as a depression at 42.9 degrees W.
--Lou
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recmod
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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dennis was 'the' strongest july hurricane. nothing stronger in the historical database (though i'm sure there have been others). -HF
I thought Emily beat out as THE strongest July hurricane ever. peaked at 937mb, 150 mph; Emily peaked at 929mb, 155mph.....
-Lou
my mistake, you're right... emily was stronger. did have a central pressure measured at 930mb in the gulf.. the winds at the time were clocked at 150mph. so was #1 for all of six days. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Jul 25 2005 04:30 AM)
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NONAME
Weather Guru
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Well some Consider it as one. There is not an real definition of a Cape Verde Hurricane but the Most say it is a Depression that becomes a hurricane before it reaches the Lesser antillies there for some would say Emily was a Cape Verde and some would say she wasn;t
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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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URNT11 KNHC 250014
97779 00024 21217 97419 15200 21012 18168 /2481
RMK AF308 0207A GERT OB 06
MARKED ABEAM ESTIMATED CENTER OVERLAND AT 2359Z
WITH MINIMUM 850 MB HSS OF 1475 METERS AND MIN SLP 1006 M
If I'm reading that correctly. RECON is saying that Gert's "center" is now over land.~damielw
Follow up to the above report.
URNT11 KNHC 250043
97779 00384 21221 97518 15200 13026 18158 /2480
41015
RMK AF308 0207A GERT OB 08
MARKED ABEAM FL CENTER INLAND AT 00:33Z. MINIMUM 850MB HSS 1477 METERS. MIN EXTRAP SLP 1006 M
Edited by danielw (Mon Jul 25 2005 12:47 AM)
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Keith234
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IR and visible imagery indicate that the storm is decoupled, and is being heavily sheared. Sheared storms can and have been very tenacious in the past so this may last long. It's the future that concern's me...the has a completely different track from the and , and the answer lies in where the polar vortex ends up. The places the vortex over the pole, which pulls Franklin away from the U.S and therefore it doesn't block the briding of the azores and U.S ridge. The and to a lesser extent leave the storm, and see some transistion to which allows it to strengthen. This would prevent the bridging, and prevents or more likely hinders future development of the Cape verde wave. All I'm saying is that the future path of Franklin will determine the next storms path. The AO is forecasted to go moderately negative over the next 10 days, conducive to what the is thinking.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml
So based on what I think the CV wave will be a more GOM threat...
Edited by Keith234 (Mon Jul 25 2005 01:03 AM)
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Bloodstar
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Sheared or not, the low level circulation is heading south and south south west. Which is not the direction expected by anyone.
It's still hanging tough... and if the southern motion continued for the next 12 hours, all bets are off on what's going to happen, I hate bringing Jeanne up, but how manytimes was Jeanne pretty much counted down for the count?
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
Edited by danielw (Mon Jul 25 2005 12:51 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Remember the early models. They had Franklin doing a 270 degree turn back toward the west
http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=6&Year=2005
.
Edited by danielw (Mon Jul 25 2005 12:57 AM)
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pedro
Unregistered
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Computer models are starting to make a south turn
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
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Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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should be interesting to see what the models do with this now if Franklin continues this s/sw trend.
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Steve H1
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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I think Pedro is onto something here.....it does appear to be drifting to the SSW.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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If it continues, it could be the original forecast track because this is basically the same area it was supposed to make the loop.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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It looks like the LLC is collapsing to me. I wonder if it is trying to reform under the ULC to the SE where the maximum convection is.
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Michael
PWS
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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I have seen something on TV about that round house.
You know, I had no idea that "beachfront property" meant literally feet from the ocean, and probably in the ocean at high tide. Good grief, that seems a little unrealistic.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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