CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
|
|
GFDL brings this wave to Cat 2 strength in 5 days.
I don't see where this northward turn is going to come from. All of the models that predict it, predict Harvey will stall out in the mid atlantic.
--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
|
Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
|
|
Have to agree with you canetracker. The 12Z and even the and the 6z are pulling it nothward for a time, but it misses the trough that Harvey drags across. It really doesn't get much further north than 22N at any point (waiting for the rest of the 12Z). tHE 6z is intersting 'cause it shows a NW turn, then a move back to the WNW at the end of the period. doesn't show this feature at all really. 12Z now shows it heading toward the tail of Harvey then stalls as a ridge builds in and seals off the trough, not allowing 95L to escape. Now if 95L misses that trough, it will have to come westward, as I believe the ' depiction of another trough on the east coast may be bunk, as ridging should be building near Bermuda. BTW, there wants to be another system further south than 95L that is shadowing it on the . Starting to get interesting. This is the first bonifide CV system this year, August 4, 2005, in the year of our Lord. Cheers!!
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
The had not initialized at last check. We shoukd wait until it does AND until the system develops further before debunking the globals. I do agree that leaving a closed system behind Harvey does not make much sense. Not all the models have picked up the system now coming out SE of this one. More data in the next 12 -24 hours should clear these things a bit.
--------------------
doug
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
95L is now showing developing convection north of what appears to be a LLC and no longer is looking so broad...banding is more noticeable and it continues to consolidate...I think it will be classified in the next discussion. Movement is almost due west.
--------------------
doug
|
Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
|
|
Quote:
Have to agree with you canetracker. The 12Z and even the and the 6z are pulling it nothward for a time, but it misses the trough that Harvey drags across. It really doesn't get much further north than 22N at any point (waiting for the rest of the 12Z). tHE 6z is intersting 'cause it shows a NW turn, then a move back to the WNW at the end of the period. doesn't show this feature at all really. 12Z now shows it heading toward the tail of Harvey then stalls as a ridge builds in and seals off the trough, not allowing 95L to escape. Now if 95L misses that trough, it will have to come westward, as I believe the ' depiction of another trough on the east coast may be bunk, as ridging should be building near Bermuda. BTW, there wants to be another system further south than 95L that is shadowing it on the . Starting to get interesting. This is the first bonifide CV system this year, August 4, 2005, in the year of our Lord. Cheers!!
Yeah, I agree with your assessment. One difference I think I have noticed in the global models is how they handle the departing of Harvey..The & don't want to move out the storm quickly to the NE like the track or . Instead both of these models as well as the UKMET want to meander and trap Harvey in the center of the Atlantic ridge and not scoot him off to the North Atlantic, thus creating the weakness that allows 95L to move more northward into. While the /GFS solution is possible, my bet is with & that Harvey gets picked up and wisked away to the northern latitudes. It's interesting that the has trended more W-NW with 95Ls track from its earlier 00Z run. My bet is that the Atlantic Ridge rebuilds after the departure of Harvey and 95L takes a more W-NW course.
--------------------
RJB
|
Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
it seems that we may indeed have a tropical depression by the end of the day, likely at 5pm--i seem to have found the LLC and it is just to the east of the main convection, between it and one of the bands
the interesting thing is that on July 29 several of the models (NOGAPS, , UKMET, ) were picking up on a low pressure area in the eastern or central Atlantic, and developing it at 96hours, which would be August 4(today)
This (95L) is probably that system
Harvey looked earlier like it may become a hurricane, but it looks now, with teh center starting to become exposed a bit, that it has likely peaked in intensity
does anyone else find it odd that out of eight storms, only two were classified as hurricanes?
does anyone else think Cindy and Franklin may have been hurricanes for a brief time?
|
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 318
|
|
Don't many of the major hurricanes originate from the waves that come off of Africa which is one of the reasons the more major storms are usually seen in August and September? Seems unusual we had two major hurricanes so early in the season. Tropical storms seem to be more common in June and July.
I know in this area we have a tropical storm that usually forms in the Gulf in June/July hit every few years. Wind doesn't seem to be too much of a problem but flooding always is. We haven't had a direct hit from a hurricane since '86.
|
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 318
|
|
95L is looking better all the time.
|
Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
|
|
Well, It's looking better and better on visible imagry, You can see some definate banding features starting to build up. I fully expect the to call this a depression at 5PM (of course, now watch it fizzle). If I'm seeing the cloud features right, I think I can even see a easterly wind in the southern quadrant, I'd eyeball it around 12N 33W.
-Mark
--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
There is stll some openness on the SW side which may be the only flaw in classification
--------------------
doug
|
ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
|
|
Where would be the first place to check to see if 95L has been reclassified as TD9?
'shana
|
AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
|
|
Newest still at T1.0/1.0. addressed the differences in the forward speed of Harvey by the various models in the 5am disco.
"UNTIL ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH ACCELERATES THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS NEXT TROUGH...HOWEVER...WILL NOT HAVE MUCH AMPLITUDE SO IT SEEMS UNLIKELY TO BE ABLE TO CAUSE A BIG INCREASE IN HARVEY'S FORWARD SPEED. THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SLOWER THAN IN THE EARLIER RUNS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE U.K. MET AND ...WHICH ARE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN MY FORECAST...AND THE AND ...WHICH ARE CONSIDERABLY FASTER."
|
Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
|
|
According to the Navy is should by TD9 at the 5pm advisory
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...es&DISPLAY=
|
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
|
|
If this comes to fruition than the future Irene may very well become a fish spinner, right?
--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
|
CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
|
|
I'm new to this but is the 12Z run at the site out to lunch? I believe it has 95L fizzling out. Am I reading the model incorrectly? Did someone load in the wrong data? Or what?
|
Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
|
|
Quote:
does anyone else find it odd that out of eight storms, only two were classified as hurricanes?
does anyone else think Cindy and Franklin may have been hurricanes for a brief time?
Actually, I was thinking that myself off and on for a while, My theory for Cindy was that the didn't want to upgrade when it was obviously landfalling and the possible cost and hassle of evacuations were too great to really justify calling it. I expect it'll be a hurricane in the post analysis.
Franklin on the other hand, who knows. I just don't think they had enough information to pull the trigger.
But yeah, I really didn't expect to see all the storms either hold below hurricane intensity or really ramp up to some pretty fierce levels.
Seems kinda odd. But
we have the rest of the season to have things kinda normalize.
-Mark
--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
|
Lysis
User
Reged:
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
|
|
Naw, it (nogaps) is not recognizing it. It’s wrong. is picking up on some screwy things as well, like a deepening system forming just off the coast around New Orleans and continuing to deepen through the southern states (?).
--------------------
cheers
Edited by Lysis (Thu Aug 04 2005 07:35 PM)
|
Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
|
|
Quote:
Naw, it (nogaps) is not recognizing it. It’s wrong. is picking up on some screwy things as well, like a deepening system forming just off the coast around New Orleans and continuing to deepen through the southern states (?).
I saw on another post one of the maps and it also has a Low forming off the coast of La. So the may be right for a change. Just have to wait and see
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
NOGAPS keeps in touch with the system out to the end, but doesn't do much with its intensity...it seems to be keeping it more toward the northern islands. It is unsure of what it is dealing with I guess.
--------------------
doug
|
VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
|
|
NRL site is now referring to 95L as "NoName." will be reporting at 5 PM
Michael
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
