Floridacane
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That is why I said she is still fighting with some new convection. If you look at the Thermal Infrared loop that Frank just posted, you'll see why I am so pessimistic*. That's a lot of dry air ahead. IF she does make it through, than I am with Danny on the 2005 most sheared award. 
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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Spoken
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I'm really very sorry to interrupt but would somebody please have a look at 78W, 22N – along on the northern shore of Cuba – and tell me what that black spot is. And thanks!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
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Steve H1
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Looks to me to be a dry area that is filling in with moisture that you see on the loop. Either that or an alien ship. Interesting on that loop is the ULL that is plagueing Irene is now pulling north. Let's see how she reacts.
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Random Chaos
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That (the ULL pulling north) and the dry air mass are looking more and more favorable to Irene. In reference to the dry air mass, in addition to that convective cell firing up near the Lesser Antillies you can see another cell firing up in the middle of the dry air to the southwest of Irene (not associated with Irene). If convection's able to fire up in the middle of that dry air mass, maybe Irene will be less effected by it than we've been expecting it to be.
Only time will tell.
(Reference graphic: same as Spoken)
Re: Spoken's question and an addendum to Steve's answer:
On that graphic Colors (other than orange) is most mosture, white is mid moisture, dark grey is "least" moisture (of a non-dry airmass), black is borderline moist/dry, then it goes into oranges for dry air mass with the brightest ornage being the dryest. Take a look at the key at the bottom.
Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Aug 08 2005 03:24 AM)
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dem05
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DING...DING...
Looks like round 10 for Irene. Some thunderstorms really going over the center now, but you can still see she's feeling shear. She's like Rocky in the later rounds though. The tenacity is admirable for a weak system.
I know what guidance and the experts say, but it's systems like this that I pay attention to 'til they are gone. Example, Andrew in '92 didn't even have the pressure of a thunderstorm while in similar predicaments. It followed a weakness to about 24 N, then got snagged by the ridge. We all thought it would spin down and go out to sea before that. Emily '93 was another surprise with less consequence. But it still effected the Outer Banks. So I'm afraid to speculate. Would rather just monitor it as it lives out it's life and hopefully dies out at sea.
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HanKFranK
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harvey is down to its last hours, heading out.
irene is persistently moving wnw. the convection has reflared since around midnight, but as the shear is only slowly abating i doubt it will do more than minimal strengthening until later in the week. the later model runs are taking the system a bit further west than the last official track... to bermuda or so. the only model keeping irene on a threat track is the canadian. don't see that going down.
three other areas i'd mention right now worth watching.
persistent convection near the bahamas continues. the low level convergence point from the last couple of days near 26/72 has had the upper low swing right over it.... probably disrupted whatever was going on there. there's a newer convergence max near southeast florida. since it was related, the low/mid layer low that was on the northern gulf coast is having some of its vorticity drawn up towards the mid atlantic. some of the models show a potential hybrid feature offshore there in a couple of days. the entire area has an overall low potential, though.
behind irene is a rather low amplitude wave that had early model support... none really now (except for ). there is a low shear zone east of the islands.. it should be into that in a couple of days. no dice until then. low potential for now.
now for the oddball. yesterday i watched a weak low drift north out of the convection southwest of irene. it has been moving more or less due north along 49w, and seems to have slowed near 15/49 as of now. convection is firing near the center. it's just far enough away from irene to not be entrained (unless irene starts to deepen) and may fester down there if it can keep firing convection. if it persists it may interact with irene or cause something similar to the fujiwhara effect. low potential here as well.
the basin is getting close to reactivation. over the next week or two i'd expect to see a general increase in the vigor of tropical waves and a decrease in shear deep in the basin. by late this month we may have one of those storm parades that get lots of attention (but often result in a bunch of recurvatures).
HF 0555z08august
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Bloodstar
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I keep pegging Irene as travelling closer to due west. and this time is no exception, Of course there's a nice little band of storms to the south of Irere this time, and the shear is still there, but perhaps it's starting to weaken just a hair. I'd be willing to say with the southern band of convection, we might be seeing a modest strengthening at 5am, and a WNW track (even if the last few hours have been more west).
quickscat has a couple of 45Kt uncontaminated winds. T numbers up to 2.0/2.0, So despite everything thrown at it so far. it's still fighting and still strengthening. As to where it goes... Well, The models as still pulling it poleward. So the fish spinner is looking more and more likely.
I don't see any other players currently (Harvey is heading out) The stuff in the bahamas... maybe. But I would want to see some presistant convection before I'd look at it seriously.
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Susan in Jupiter, FL
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I was just wondering, I thought if a hurricane name was used before, that the name is retired. We had Hurricane Irene in 1999, so why are they using the name Irene again?
Thanks.
a storm has to be very destructive to get it's name retired. irene '99 wasn't deemed destructive enough. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Aug 08 2005 01:50 PM)
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Major7
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They only get retired if they were responsible for a large amount of death and/or destruction.
(More information can be found at this link:)
Tropical Cyclone Names
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 08 2005 11:14 AM)
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Lysis
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Hey Hank, I was wondering if you could elaborate on what you mentioned about fujiwara, and its relevance to Irene. If something like that were to occur, how could/would that affect the immediate and long term tracks of either system? I couldn't figure out if you were just hinting at something happening, playing with an idea or what.
nah, that little feature puffed out last night. fujiwhara is the tendency of two lows to rotate around a common point between them... or at least bend their tracks in a likewise fashion. -HF
ok...thanks
Edited by Lysis (Mon Aug 08 2005 02:33 PM)
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Ed in Va
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From the Wakefield VA (eastern VA) moring discussion...seems to hint at some development (tropical?) later this week:
AGN...SYSTEM OFF BAHAMAS NOT CURRENTLY RESOLVED WELL...AND COULD PLAY INTO
FCST.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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NewWatcher
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It seems, to me anyway, that Irene is looking pretty much awful this a.m.
Also, the area over the Bahamas is catching my attention....
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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AgentB
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Irene is still spinning her way across the Atlantic. Some flare ups have been occuring off and on in the last few hours, and she just doesn't want to die quite yet. Reminds me of Emily in terms of tenacity. Emily looked doomed at some points due to how far south she tracked, but she held it together longer than some expected.
The feature over the Bahamas has been hanging out for a few days, and to me has been looking a bit better on the sats. It's got quite a ways to go for anything to form, but worth keeping an eye on.
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Check the Surf
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Ron Basso
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Irene's LLC is completely exposed and pulling W-NW away from the convection to the east. I'd expect, given the fact that she is primarily a low level swirl, that Irene will be downgraded to a depression by at 11 am.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
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RJB
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HanKFranK
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irene has to completely go away for it to be forgotten. noticed that the euro and this morning have it missing the trough connection and heading into the western atlantic. sure enough bastardi thinks this is right and it's going to make it through. that's the thing with these storms that stay weak and keep working their way west.... they persist long enough and they'll end up finding a favorable environment. the shear pattern over irene has been slowly decreasing over the last few days and really shouldn't be enough to kill it. irene has to survive for a couple more days... then make it past the trough that is supposed to snag it near bermuda. i'm more doubtful than last night, but still think it's going to catch that trough in a couple of days, and then get left to meander in the central atlantic like franklin and harvey have recently.
harvey should be later today... possibly getting dropped by the westerlies and cut off west of the azores in a few days.
disturbance south of irene lost its convection overnight and is probably washed out. more convection/low level vorticity is working brewing up southwest of irene closer to the islands. enough of the models that were recurving irene were still showing wave energy getting west under the ridge... something brewed up down here could represent what the models were showing.
still a nagging home-brew option near the east coast, but the pattern is such that it would be a coast-runner out to sea now. joe b outlined his version of things in his (mostly picking on the eta feature that's been shown working up the coastal plain during runs over the weekend).
wave behind irene not doing anything as of yet... mostly confined and of low amplitude.
HF 1406z08august
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LI Phil
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interesting irene analysis, hf...just read jb and checked the modeling...some model guidance is not responding to the weak upper trough in the central Atlantic and are keeping irene on a west-northwest track through Day 5...there is a chance irene may have been written off too quickly...while i still think the trof canl pick up irene and carry her to fish territory, there is still a chance, albeit slight, she can slip underneath the ridge and pose a threat to the EC and Bermuda down the road...jb thinks wednesday will be the "make or break" day for this...he is also concerned, as hf mentioned, about a little homebrew off the east coast, but this would be at best a 'coast skimmer'...
i would say it's prolly 50/50 that irene remains a TS at the 11:00, although ships keeps her intensity steady and increases it to 55 kts at 72 hours...
i'll go contrary to the at this point (and hope that i'm wrong) and say irene DOES persist, perhaps even almost becoming an open wave, but maintains her westerly track for the next several days...this would indeed pose an ec threat next week...again, i hope i'm wrong...only time will tell...
as far as any other tropical activity, africa continues to produce a wave train, but they don't seem to be holding together as well at the moment, and they also are a bit further north; anything that does develop should simply spin the fish...
remember, we're already up to "I" and we haven't even hit the peak of the season yet...still plenty of time for tropical trouble to brew and we should really be grateful for a few more days of relative calm before the fit hits the shan...
BUCKLE UP
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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ftlaudbob
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Well,Irene is no longer a TS.If it can hold on to a TD this may help move it more west,and re-develop after it gets over warmer water and less shear.She looks really bad right now.But not writing her off yet.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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MapMaster
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Na Na Na Na---NA NA NA NA--Hey hey, goodbye!! (Old song)
That is what Irene is telling us....she might hang on, but, I think not. The comments about Andrew elsewhere have caused me to consider it MIGHT come back.But...
I still say..never should have been upgraded to start with...how many 'better' systems have we seen that DID NOT get upgraded, at least until after the season, if at all?
A new record....maybe not.....how did this figure into the upgrade decision? Science now sees what is really there.... and we return to reality, re: Irene
(sorry to sound cynical- this is not new, news).
MM
Edited by MapMaster (Mon Aug 08 2005 04:26 PM)
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Steve H1
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Still "plenty of time" is a bit of an understatement LIP, remember its only August 8th. We've waited many seasons in which we didn't have a storm until mid-August!! Lots ahead of us I'm afraid. TD #9, ghost of Irene, may do some more haunting before she is done. Latest visibles shows her heading on a due west course and she should vasilate between west and westnorthwest during the next 24 - 36 hours. Yes, I did see JBs video this morning, and I believe he is correct by and large, with his idea of the TD sliding underneath the trough. They are both relatively weak systems, and Harvey moved NE a little quicker than expected, which should weaken the troughs effect further. When (if) it gets beyond the trough things get interesting. There is an upper level trough that is moving through the Bahamas that may attempt to get down to the surface before running into the mid atlantic in a couple of days. Meanwhile, ridging should develop over Florida and shift northward up the peninsula as the ULL in the Bahamas moves NNW toward the mid atlantic. If TD #9 misses the connection with the trough tomorrow night/Wednesday, its possible that she could affect the southeast states over the weekend. Its possible - lots of uncertainty since she could get deflected to the north also with all the mid-atlantic confusion. Regardless of which scenario plays out, I think conditions will become more favorable for her to strengthen once she gets past the trough and beneath some ridging. Again, this seems to be whats on the table right now - everything could change this afternoon, so we'll see if she continues to stairstep to the north and out by Wednesday or slip under and make a beeline toward the west. Cheers!!
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Ryan
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it looks like Harvey is starting to turn again, could he turn back towards the US?
as for Irene, she looks sick but has the potential to become a TS again, i dont think she will be a hurricane ever, but my question for all of you is can TD Irene affect the East Coast?, or will she also turn out to sea?
thanks, Ryan 
Harvey isn't coming back. He's a goner. We have no idea on Irene. Most guidance suggests recurvature or dissipation at this time. --Clark
Edited by Clark (Mon Aug 08 2005 05:08 PM)
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