damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
|
|
I have never trusted the BAM models and i am not so sure that the does either. They talk more about the other models, like , UKMET, etc...than they do about BAM. Both the deep and medium models always seem to cluster close together and always seems to be away (west and or south) of the other models. They are just models and can't be relied on solely. Like the latest run i have seen....Both BAM models have Irene moving more west and wsw in the insuing days whereas the other models are more westerly than previous days - they are not as extreme as the BAM.
--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
|
StormTrooper
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 16
Loc: San Antonio Go! Spurs Go!
|
|
June i was not wish casting. actually i made no prediction at all.
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Quote:
All the sudden BAMM!! out comes the perdictions for the Carolina's...
BAMM, funny that you should mention the outlier of the models.
The 18Z run, At 120 hours.
BAMD- 27.4N 70.1W
BAMM-25.9N 70.4W
A98E- 27.8N 70.1W
LBAR- 28.9N 66.0W
Averaging would equal somewhere near 27.5N and 68.2-69.2W
|
Gainesville, FL
Unregistered
|
|
Looking at the various images in the model loop for Irene, it looks like the BAMM has been pretty consistently pointing to where Irene is now, for the last few days. The BAMD looks like it would come in 2nd place, as far as how the models have predicted Irene's past performance so far, including its present location. Is the BAMM a 'good' model vs. the others, and is it surprising that it has performed well and apparently better than the other models listed there?
|
StormTrooper
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 16
Loc: San Antonio Go! Spurs Go!
|
|
http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?2005s9-1992s2
Look at the end of the forcasted pathfor Irene. That should be the in more favorable conditions correct? That was the point i was trying to make. Before the All Mighty One went on its west track it was forcasted to go out to sea. Sorry if it sounded like i was wishcasting.
|
Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
|
|
As long as Irene stays a TD's she will track west like most all TD. 270 to 280 Degrees, My feel on Irene she stay a TD for next 24 hours then maybe weak TS then more of a West Northwest track think models will show West North a little at a time...
Dave
|
nl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
|
|
whats happening too irene? shes gone
|
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
|
|
The circulation is still there.
--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Looking at this IR loop Irene looks terrible at the moment... she's still sucking up a lot of dry air from the west and south, almost looks like an open wave, hard to tell off these night time loops ... check the second link...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/satpix/watl_ir4_loop.php
GOES East Channel 4 loop on left side of page
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
but she's been fighting these same elements for the past several days and is still around, a tough old bird I must admit... I do believe conditions could improve as she moves to the west , the upper low off to the NW hints of weaking and I believe the ridge will build back in, reducing both shear and the dry air.. and continue her on the westard track... then again I could be totally wrong... 
|
Gainesville, FL
Unregistered
|
|
After doing a bit of searching, I think I can answer my own question. BAMM is Beta and Advection Model Medium-layer, which is intended for weaker systems, while the BAMD is the Deep-layer version, intended for stronger TCs. So as long as it stays weak, it makes sense the BAMM would be working.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
well as weak as Irene looks at the moment perhaps the most likely scenario will be the BAMM.. this model may work well because storms of this nature tend to be steered by low-level winds. Here are the plots for the latest BAMM model runs
http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm
ooops, wrong link... sorry
Edited by Frank P (Wed Aug 10 2005 01:20 AM)
|
Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
|
|
Irene is struggling, the environment ahead of her is real messy wtih the ULL from the west going to duke it out with her. This really wasn't expected by the , but the ULL has been moving easterly. If she survives this jaunt, look out. Cheers!!
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
check out this link... could be the clue as to where Irene eventually goes.. .appears to me that we have a decent flow pattern for a weak system to continue west.... my opinion only
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html
|
JG
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 55
|
|
Quote:
Now back to business. Someone asked about RECON.
They made several drops yesterday, but I don't see any data from today.
Yesterday's drops, at first glance, don't reflect any more wind at low level than you might find in your back yard.
But that was 30 hours ago, and weather changes. 
Thank you very much. I was searching for any data as tracking these storms is a hobby (and neccissary evil) where I live. I was hoping to see some data about the strength of the ridge so hopefully we'll get some info on that soon. That will tell the story about this storm, even though it looks horrible on the latest pics. Thank you again.
|
StormTrooper
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 16
Loc: San Antonio Go! Spurs Go!
|
|
The 700-850 on that link looks pretty scary. 
|
hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged:
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
|
|
There is trouble for florida if the BAMM model holds well
|
Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
|
|
Ship passing the central of Irene waves under 2 meters, wind 10KTs. pressure 1011MB, looks like the LLC maybe lifting to a MLC or she becoming a Wave.
Dave
|
StormTrooper
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 16
Loc: San Antonio Go! Spurs Go!
|
|
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html
Click on the 700-850 on this link.  im no expert but that looks ugly.
@ what altitude are those steering currents? anyone? 
Edited by StormTrooper (Wed Aug 10 2005 02:06 AM)
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
convection trying to fire up again in the NE section.... hard to believe waves are less than two meters in the center of a TD... I unfortunately was in a TD in the GOM and the waves were at least 10-15 feet high... scared the stew out of me
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
|
Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
|
|
Frank can only tell you what the ship reported, but they(ships) have been right most of the time they are in the area at the surface..
Dave
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
