ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Agree with you, as long as Irene stays a TD or weak TS she keep on moving west, If Irene is still a TD or a 40mph TS in 48 hours , My feeling is she track west to South Florida as a cat 1 or could reach cat 2 before land fall. if not then she curve up northward to maybe SC.
Dave
That sounds about right to me also.I just hope she will not be worse than a cat 2.IfI were a betting man I would also say south Florida or South Carolina.It is getting more interesting by the hour.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by ftlaudbob (Wed Aug 10 2005 03:08 PM)
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
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DanielW:
I guess I was imprecise (unless you were kidding and I didn't get it) when I wrote "reading" in my post re: QuikScat passes. I suppose I should've written that if I were "interpreting" the actual QuikScat passes correctly, then there was no closed circulation. It does appear that that was the case, or that at least the QuickScat passes were ambiguous - as shown in the 5 am advisory and your subsequent post of that advisory.
Amazing Irene is this far along (in terms of westward movement) and there is still some ambiguity as to whether there is an LLC at all. As I think Clark posted before, despite that ambiguity it makes sense that recon has not gone in, given the already-busy season, what is almost certain to come in terms of frequent recon flights into other storms down the road, and the lack of immediate threat from Irene.
But I am so curious about what a plane would find in there; although I do not want the government spending its (our) money on unnecessary flights, it's hard not to root for recon to be sent in there to determine (1) if there's a (low level) center (2) where the center is and (3) how strong Irene is.
-Brad
Edited by Brad in Miami (Wed Aug 10 2005 04:41 PM)
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Irene will explode into a cat 3 or stronger...however, the exact path is still too far out to know...
If I were on the east coast...anywhere from Miami to Cape Hatteras...I'd be watching Irene real closely....
take a look at Joe Bastardi's take on it....the high pressure system will keep it south and it WILL impact the U.S....and all the things are there for strengthening...
Rick you can't say she will explode into a cat. 3 or stonger its a little to early for guessing..i mean maybe she will as of now shes a TD so we have time to think.
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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Posts: 161
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yes I can...and I did...
the storm grows in size with every pulse...and the shear is about over with...and Irene is entering warmer waters, and she will be steered west by the building high pressure ridge...and she has already developed outflow characteristic of a cyclone...and now, when the upper spins and LLC all get together..she will explode...maybe today...maybe tomorrow...maybe day after..not sure...
but she will
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Deltona, FL
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Can you send me a link that shows the high pressure ridge? The ridge that was suppose to have picked her up? If I am asking the right question....................
Let me say this again in case no one saw it the first time. Let's work on this present issue and not start fights this morning. If you want to comment than you need to register and you know who you are.
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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bamffl
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Tampa, FL
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MikeC, *very* cool plot forecast! It's interesting to be able to compare the tracks.
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You're just jealous because you can't hear the voices...
Edited by bamffl (Wed Aug 10 2005 03:41 PM)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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Thy are hoping that Irene will pull up in a small break in the high close to the coast, If Irene stays as a TD she just may pass it by..
120 hour graph.
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Myles
Unregistered
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yes I can...and I did...
the storm grows in size with every pulse...and the shear is about over with...and Irene is entering warmer waters, and she will be steered west by the building high pressure ridge...and she has already developed outflow characteristic of a cyclone...and now, when the upper spins and LLC all get together..she will explode...maybe today...maybe tomorrow...maybe day after..not sure...
but she will
Rick, to say that Irene will 'for sure' blow up is definetly jumping the gun. For one, it's still a depression, not even a TS yet. Maybe in the next advisory she'll be a storm but theres still a ways to go. Two, there's quite a bit of dry air around her and in front of the forcasted track. Dry air is not a contributing factor to rapid intesification, infact a I believe dry air helped keep Francis from 'blowing up' last year. Also, there is a upper low to the west of Irene. I don't believe its causing shear now, but the area ahead of Irene is sure to have a lit bit. This area could weaken, but it is there now and could cause problems in the future.
And one of your points, the warmer waters, isn't very valid. Irene is already in waters around the mid 80's. From any graph I've seen the water temps infront of it are only in the mid-80's aswell.
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Steve H1
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Well, fortunately for us in Florida, the models are trending toward the right again. This is very bad news for the Carolinas however. That said, they are just models and can (and have been) inaccurate. Some are still maintaining that stronger ridging will be present near the SE coast by late weekend as the Alaskan Block occurs as ridging retrogrades west up there. If that were to play out, the Atlantic ridge could move in kind. So nobody on the east coast can claim No Impact from Irene. After last year, I am taking no chances. My supplies are ready......but we can always use more WATER!!  Cheers!!
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Last night I had noted a pretty large outflow boundry, and I was wondering if it would kill the LLC. In fact, it may have for a brief time and then simply rebuilt it. As it is now, there's enough convection to mask the LLC (but you can still see evidence of the the low level windflow wrapping about and around 22N 57W or so) The storm looks better, but I still have some serious doubts about any strengthening. In fact, i suspect the entire northern part of convection is dying down and will slip away (once again) once the afternoon wears on. The southern convection looks like it's going to stick around this time, but you can still see the storms being pushed to the north and displacing because of shear(?)
If what I am seeing is correct, that's what is causing the seeming NW movement and that the LLC is heading in a more WNW to W direction.
I'm not even going to try to project intensity at this point. and remember, IANAM
-Mark
(of course, now watch the sucker just explode in intensity now that I've doubted that it's going to get any stronger  )
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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NONAME
Weather Guru
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I dont know why they havent put recon out there yet its past 55w and it has more of a chance to come to land. Another thing i dont get why they would send recon out to harvey when it was going away from land and they haven sent one into Irene.
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
Well, fortunately for us in Florida, the models are trending toward the right again. This is very bad news for the Carolinas however. That said, they are just models and can (and have been) inaccurate. Some are still maintaining that stronger ridging will be present near the SE coast by late weekend as the Alaskan Block occurs as ridging retrogrades west up there. If that were to play out, the Atlantic ridge could move in kind. So nobody on the east coast can claim No Impact from Irene. After last year, I am taking no chances. My supplies are ready......but we can always use more WATER!! Cheers!!
I think it's going to be a close call for the east coast of FL. It all depends on the orientation and strength of the Bermuda High 5-6 days out. Current model trends say Irene near 30N-75W in 5 days. After looking at the new 12Z UKMET and the 06Z , both models want to rebuild and expand westward the Atlantic Ridge with the doing it after 120 hrs and the UKMET after 96 hours. The UKMET is stronger with the ridge but both models build it west with the axis near JAX and 1024mb ridging to the coast. If, and who can tell this far out, the storm stays below 29-30N after 5 days, it is likely to be steered west or even W-SW after that point. If it gets north of 30N, then the storm will likely get trapped in the ridge and meander until something picks it up. Of course, this is a prediction based on todays model runs - why the models change so much is because of what happens upstream in the Gulf of Alaska and whether a deep trough sets up out west (thus pumping up the eastern ridge) or more zonal conditions prevail. Anyone from Miami to Cape Hatteras could be impacted at this point. Here is the 06Z track of Irene from the mm5 model at 120 hours.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/archive/2005081006/IRENE.track.png
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RJB
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ralphfl
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Beaumont, TX
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I think it is with certainty we can say Irene is the little storm that COULD. She could go out to sea.
She could hit the East Coast. She could strengthen or dissipate. I gues we will just all have to wait and see what she decides to do but isn't it interesting following the progress of these storms and trying to figure out what they will do next?
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
Edited by ralphfl (Wed Aug 10 2005 04:45 PM)
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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NONAME
Weather Guru
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When do they plan to send Recon to Irene and why havent they yet I know I said this early but when harvey was movin away from land they sent one to it. But and Irene get close and could have a impact they havent yet.
Also am i not the only one who doesn't like ralphfl?
Also how do u become a moderator anyways.
Edited by NONAME (Wed Aug 10 2005 04:55 PM)
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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
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I think it is with certainty we can say Irene is the little storm that COULD. She could go out to sea.
She could hit the East Coast. She could strengthen or dissipate. I gues we will just all have to wait and see what she decides to do but isn't it interesting following the progress of these storms and trying to figure out what they will do next?
I must totally agree... it has been very intresting watching it look like it was going to die out. Then to see the next day she was going again. It has also been intresting looking at all of the models and learning which ones work with which types of storms. I am thinking now it may be feeling the trof to the north west, but I think it will miss it and keep moving west. The next 72 hours will be even more intresting to watch and see how this storm moves and builds (or not). 
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Stay Aware...Stay Alert....Stay Alive.....
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Myles
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: SW FL
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The only problem with that is this forum is not for novices like you to guess where the storm will go or how powerful it will be. That's what the forcast lounge is for.
Please do not respond to posts of this nature.
Edited by LI Phil (Wed Aug 10 2005 05:22 PM)
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jbmusic
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 42
Loc: Bradenton, Fl
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It is with must regret that I must say goodbye to this board, I don't post much, but I use to come to this board several times a day to get information and to read other peoples opinions as to what is happening with the storms, but now for me to get the information, I must weed thru all the bickering and fighting. It's not worth it too me. We are all grown ups on this board, but I read the same petty bickering I listen to my kids do all day, I don't need to come on here and read it from grown ups, so I will be going elsewhere to get my information. I just hope you all grow up and learn how to get along. Life is too short and we could learn alot from each other if we stop reading between the lines, and stop picking petty things to argue about
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Jenny Bradenton, Florida
www.bbdigitalphoto.com
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