scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Why waste the $$$ on recon out there now when we know its very weak and still projected to go out to sea. They will send 1 in but probably not till tomorrow. We have plenty of time. If this was a threat to the Islands or Puerto Rico then they would of sent one in yesterday.
Anyways I dont know why they are saying it was moving this morning at 10mph. It actually stalled or drifted around for the past 6-8hours as it is so close to its midlevel center, it actually might be held up on its westard movement due to it.
Anyways still the models show this heading up towards bermuda but of course lets keep a eye on it incase we do see the models head towards 30N and 75W.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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But Ralphfl, I have already noted that the models are shifting north, but don't want to lull anyone to the opposite conclusion, that there is no need to be watchful. There are plenty of mets out there that see strong ridging in the east, and the new run of the 12Z bears this out, and actually dissipates Irene east of FL. We are watching and looking at the models because we are concerned, not panicking. Of course the models could be wrong, so I watch so I can better prepare if a threat comes. Rick on a boat posts here quite a bit, and helps to bring some comic relief to the board, and has good observations. He wouldn't be wishcasting either.....he's off the coast of Alabama somewhere. I agree with you that this TD is many miles away and there is no need to worry about it at this time. We are watching it though. Cheers!!
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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With the storm still almost a week away from any possible landfalls, there is no point in spending money. Remember, there is only a limited amount of money available for the recon flights. in a slow year where this is the first or second storm, it's quite possible they would do recon flights just to get some training work in. But in this case, with who knows how many storms possibly left to deal with, you don't want to have to go to congress for emergency funding, particularly if it means that you have a serious storm heading to the coast, and flights are delayed.
So, I'm paitent. if it's a threat by saturday, I suspect you'll see recon heading out that afternoon.
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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is the best site on the internet for hurricanes...excellent moderators...excellent insight from the experts....and a lot of fun...
remember...its a hobby....
when the or some of the experts get concerned...then I do...
and Joe Bastardi is an expert...and he's concerned...so when I type that...why do some take offense...??? beats me...
so I will be careful NOT to get argumentative....
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superfly
Weather Watcher
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Loc: New Orleans
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scottsvb :
Not sure what models you're looking at, but almost all the ones I'm seeing have it headed towards the Carolinas.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
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MikeC
Admin
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Lots going on folks, considering I have a fulltime job in the day I really can't babysit the forums then for the very few people causing issues. Please read the rules, we like commentary and forecasts, but we've got a new place for them.
Irene is a complex situation with a varity of possible end results, and can bring up the anxiety level in some. I'm not very bullish on it right now, but some are.
If you think the Internet is Serious Business or like to cause "Forum Drama" then please leave. I just want the site to have decent enough information in a somewhat organized format, and that's what I want to concentrate on. The storm, and information about it. I appreciate all the commentary, but attacks will be dealt with by the mods or myself as needed. A few people are going to get banned soon.
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LI Phil
User
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I've been pretty tolerant up to this point, but it has now gotten to the point where fully half of the posters on this board are engaging in inappropriate forum behavior. Mike and Ed have posted several times on this, and the rules of this board are clearly stated.
Any future posts of an antagonizing nature, or of an attacking nature, towards any other posters or even in general, will be deleted and the poster will be either placed on probation (meaning you will be unable to post in ANY forum for a specified amount of time) or PERMANENTLY BANNED for repeated infractions...
This is a learning and teaching board, for expert, met and newbie alike...if you do not abide by the rules, you will not be permitted to post here.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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disneyfanfl
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Jacksonville, FL
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I have only been following the tropics closely for a short while and I'm just a layperson, so I have a question for the moderators, mets, and anyone else with experience out there.
What's been the most confusing or unpredictable storm you can remember? How does Irene rate in this category? I have been astounded at how this thing has survived despite the odds and pretty much defied every forcecast up until now for both intensity and direction. It just seems to me one of the trickiest storms but it could be my ignorance talking.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Elana was probably the most confusing, Floyd (For east central florida) was probably the most nail biting in recent memory, as well as Charlie.
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Polk City, FL
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Looking past Irene, which I, in my humble, not so meteorological opinion... have no idea what it'll do. (i'll echo the Ft Pierce to Hatteras sentiment, that's the best bet now) But I'd like to bring up the ever reliable 312 hour . The 12Z run shows another low approaching florida in about 13 days. While I wouldn't bet the farm on it, perhaps this is an indication of what the pattern COULD (not will, but could) be for this years CV storms. I had heard some folks saying that they thought we could end up seeing a lot of early recurvatures, but perhaps not. Again, this is all highly speculative... it's the THIRTEEN DAY model... they can't seem to get irene right for 13 minutes, so take that with a grain of salt, but I thought this was perhaps an interesting indication of the rest of the season. Obviously the future track of Irene will play a big role in what the following storms do, so this track could... no make that WILL all change. But it's definitely something to look at.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp1_312.shtml
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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This is when it stinks to be a rookie. I have no idea what all those maps mean...LOL!
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MikeC
Admin
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Irene is still a depression, it's holding its own, but it may be another day just as a depression. It's persitant westward movment keeps it interetsing.
It may stay weak for another few days, which is fine by me, but would support a further westward movement.
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JYarsh
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Virginia Beach, VA
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It looks like Irene is trying to move north, but as the bands move north they fall apart. The southern 1/3 of the storm keeps rebuilding and intensifying. It looks a lot more organized and symetrical than a few hours ago. I wouldn't be surprised if it got upgraded to a tropical storm at the 5pm advisory.
Satellite loop
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pedro
Unregistered
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If Irene keep moving west then it might be a bigger factor for florida then what the models are preddicting.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Irene is still soo weak that its center is being influenced by its midlevel low on its NW side. The center has slowed to a crawl while the midlevel low is moving by on its N or now NW side near 23N and 58W. Quicksat pass shows Irene has multiple centers and probably the main circulation near 22.6N and 57.5W. just NE of the 11am position.
The center might get better defined tonight into tomorrow as the system gets better established with a ridge to its NW. I expect a w or wnw movement thru the period. Any drop in pressure or strengthning over the next day or so would push this NW or even NNW towards Bermuda area but if she stays weak by 65W then a more W movement to near 25-27N and 75W by Saturday. It should strengthn into a hurricane by the weekend. By then its too early to tell how strong the ridge will be to let us know if she will continue then wnw towards Florida or move NW and N towards the Carolinas.
For now again like the last many days....its a watch and see.......... SVB
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Clark
Meteorologist
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emackl -- please, by all means, feel free to ask if there's something you don't understand. We'll be more than happy to help you out.
As for Irene...nice little transformation today. The older bits of Irene appear to be the sharp trough with weak rotation along 22-28N/62W, while the center has reformed with the mid-level organization early on today. The QuikSCAT passes last night gave some idea that some reorganization was occuring, while the visible satellite imagery today gives us a better idea of what has occurred. It's similar, it seems, to what it did several days ago with new LLCs forming...except this time, it wasn't the northern & western one that won out.
The storm is still a bit disorganized -- as of this time, my best guess on the center's location is 23N/58W, placing it a bit on the NW side of the convection -- but getting better organized with time. If current trend continue, the system should be a tropical storm later tonight. It's pretty much where we thought it'd be once it initially formed, but it's gotten there for all of the wrong reasons (compared to predictions) and is nowhere near the caliber of storm that was predicted.
That said, the threat to somewhere along the SE/Mid-Atlantic coast is rising...the strength of the storm and the strength/extent of the ridge will give the keys as to where. I don't feel safe excluding anyone along the US coastline at this point, including South Florida. There will be a chance for Irene to turn more towards the north at days 4 and 5; how much of a turn, as noted, depends upon how strong it is and what the upper-level pattern looks like at that point. For now though, everyone needs to be watching this one for a potential US impact in 5-6 days. Intensity...NHC intensity looks good initially, maybe a little stronger in the long run assuming the favorable upper-level winds come into play and as the storm hits the Gulf Stream. The absolute high end of intensity is cat 2/3 status, I feel -- conditions are ripe, but not all that ripe -- with weak hurricane status (cat 1, 75-85mph) more likely at landfall. We'll be watching this for any changes, however.
Elsewhere...potential is there for another central Atlantic development in about 3 days, but it's likely to start out weak. Colorado State's Experimental TC Genesis product (http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/gparm/genesis.asp) has spiked upward lately, with conditions becoming increasingly favorable, so it's only a matter of time. One to watch for the longer-term...give it, say, a 30% shot at development right now. We've changed around our (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/) a bit in an attempt to reduce the number of terrain-induced vortices; we'll have to see how it impacts the overall forecasts, but results are promising so far.
More tomorrow...
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Clark,
Why the possible 2/3, but then a 1 at landfall...will it peak out...cooler water before landfall?
Hi Ed -- it's like what NewWatcher mentioned below. I think that the storm's peak intensity could get as high as a cat2/3 on a high end, but that the peak intensity is more likely to be somewhere in the minimal hurricane strength range. It is a possibility that the storm weakens ever-so-slightly before landfall -- if it does make landfall -- but that's not going to be a dramatic effect if so. --Clark
Edited by Clark (Wed Aug 10 2005 07:51 PM)
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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he said he thinks the highest is 2-3 but in reality right now he sees low end 1 at landfall............
or that is the way i read it anyway
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
Edited by NewWatcher (Wed Aug 10 2005 06:41 PM)
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Interesting discussion from HPC this afternoon on the future of Irene's track. Hmmm...
PSNS FOR IRENE WERE BASED ON COORD WITH TPC.
HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z NOW KEEPING MORE RIDGING TO THE N OF
IRENE AND STEERING IT ON A MORE SLY TRACK...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASINGLY DIMINISHING ON THE SYS TURNING NWD TO THE DEGREE THAT
THE COORD TRACK IMPLIES.
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RJB
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