MikeC
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Saturday Update
As of the 5pm advisory packages, we now have our tenth tropical depression of the season out in the Central Atlantic. It is weak right now and undergoing some shear, so only slow development is expected as it generally moves towards the northwest over the next 3-5 days. Interests in the Northern Lesser Antilles should watch this one, though the current guidance and path suggest it should stay north of there. If it becomes a named system, it would be Jose -- and the earliest 10th named storm in recorded history in the Atlantic.
Today also marks the 1 year anniversary of Hurricane making landfall in Southwest Florida. was the second costliest hurricane on record in the US, causing over $15 billion in damages.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Irene is due to have Recon enter the system today. It's current motion is to the northwest and will likely continue on this for the next day or two.
It will then likely move more northward, well before land. However, later on it looks like steering currents will relax, and allow Irene to meander, eventually being pushed out to sea by the steering flow.
The Recon should help gain more confidence in the currently somewhat shaky forecast beyond a few days. I do not expect Irene to landfall along the East Coast, but areas in the cone should be on the watch.
Beyond Irene another tropical wave AKA 96L is in the Central Atlantic, it's looking better today and may become a depression tomorrow.
Hurricane arrived in Florida a year ago today, starting the 2004 hell year for storms.
Event Related Links
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Irene
Animated Model Plot of Irene
Satellite Image of Irene with Storm Track Overlays
Infrared color Satellite Image of Irene with Storm track Overlays
QuikSCAT image of Irene
Weather Underground model plots of Irene
Irene Spaghetti Plot from BoatUS
NRL Monterey Irene Imagery
TD 10:
Satellite imagery from NASA/GHCC
QuikSCAT image of TD 10
NRL Monterey TD 10 Imagery
Edited by SkeetoBite (Sun Aug 14 2005 01:18 AM)
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Old Sailor
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Frank, makes a good point, you need to back off and look at the big picture , where she been and where looks to be going instead of just eye balling the the storm.
Dave
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craigm
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Could 85GHZ radiance be picking up an eye?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ss85-loop.html
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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MikeC
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From what I can tell that's not an eye, water vapor shows a bit of dry air intruding into Irene, ie, just a hole in the clouds, it will fill up fast. It could eventually form an eye, but it's not together enough for it yet.
More evidence against at the moment, but I could be surprised.
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Clark
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Big question now is...is there an eye with Irene?
Evidence for: warming in the infrared satellite imagery near where the center might be located. Several microwave imager passes over the past 18hr suggesting a mid-level eye feature present within the storm.
Evidence against: visible imagery suggests it may just be a dry slot working its way into the circulation. Infrared satellite appearances can be -- and often are -- deceiving. The ragged nature of the slot suggests that if it is an eye, it is a very primitive one at best...and that it may not be one at all.
The jury is still out, but that's why we have recon going out there this afternoon. We'll know once they give us a vortex report as to whether or not the makings of an eye are within the storm. For now, though, it's a debate where I get the feeling not a lot of people are going to be definitively swayed one way or the other unless something drastic changes within the storm over the next few hours...just like with the motion! It's not NNW (and the never said it was right now, just that it would be in 3-4 days), and it's not WNW either, in my view -- it's somewhere between, likely over the long haul a general NW motion. It's important to not get caught up in short-term wobbles and look more at the long-term motion.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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scottsvb
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Yeah thats defidently not a eye. Most eyes come apperent in a hurricane with pressure near 980mb (at the highest) but generally 965-970mb.
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Myles
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Well if it was the start of an eye it collapsed now on the IR,
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
But on the water vapor the appearance of an eye is still visable. However, with a large blob of convection begining to develope a distance away from the 'eye' it is highly doubtful that it is, or ever was an 'eye'. You can see this same convection in the IR loop, probably around the real circulation center, even though the LLC is still impossible to see.
www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html
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Rabbit
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Lenny in 1999 had already developed an eye with winds only 35-40mph, so it is not impossible to have a tropical storm with an eye. Dennis in 1999 (although at 70) is another example you dont necessarily need a hurricae to have an eye. However, Irene does not have an eye at the moment--it seems to actually be undergoing a bit of easterly shear right now.
96L is getting better organized, with convection and a well-defined circulation, although not a well-organized center. I expect to see this upgraded to a TD diring the weekend, and a TS by Monday.
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Brad in Miami
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Recon plane is in the NW quadrant; we should see some interesting data pretty soon.
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scottsvb
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They wern't eyes, they were a center of circulation. Difference? Well difference is a eye is inbeted in a , while other systems have T-Storms around them, its just the center that is shown on Radar or Vis Sat.
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scottsvb
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I do see what your saying though,, I think had a eye and was weakening at the time so on the vis you can see the center or eye like feature. Lenny had what looked like a eye there but wasnt the center.
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Todd
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URNT12 KNHC 121836
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/18:14:10Z
B. 28 deg 27 min N
067 deg 05 min W
C. 850 mb 1412 m
D. 60 kt
E. 314 deg 023 nm
F. 053 deg 057 kt
G. 315 deg 024 nm
H. EXTRAP 997 mb
I. 17 C/ 1526 m
J. 22 C/ 1524 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C80
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF307 0109A IRENE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 57 KT NW QUAD 18:06:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Quote:
L. CLOSED
M. C80
does that mean there is a closed 80 mile wide eye?
Edited by Rabbit (Fri Aug 12 2005 06:52 PM)
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Todd
Weather Watcher
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I believe thats what they're reporting ... big huh
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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I do believe that is what it means...
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Ed in Va
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What does all of this tell us about the forecast path...anything?
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Bloodstar
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I'm presuming they're going to keep wandering around in there for a bit... but an 80 mile wide eye? Man, if that sucker ever contracts down... want to talk about a ramping up in windspeed....
heh
are they sure it's an eye and not just a big dry slot?
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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NewWatcher
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80nm dang you'd think we would be able to see that huh?
looks like was close, Irene just a bit west of their plot
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Brad in Miami
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Rabbit: It's 80 nautical miles, so it's even bigger than 80 statute miles.
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Frank P
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where in the heck is it????
Regardless, looking at the GOES vis loop she appears to be getting just a little better organized on her sat presentation...
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