Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Apparently recon did find an eye forming. From the regarding entry L in the recon reports:
"If the eye is not at least 50% surrounded by a wall cloud, this item and Item M will be reported as 'NA' (Not Applicable)."
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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looking at the system as a whole, you can expect a more westerly component, if the shape of the entire system is a clue to it's direction, which is usually the case, isn't it?
look for a sharper turn west that one might have realized...
the further south...the bigger the danger to all residents that might be affected in the GOM
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Steve H1
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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I don't get it!!! The cloud tops have warmed considerably during the past 6 hours. How is the pressure falling? Those -70/-80 tops are gone. Looks like possibly multiple centers. She is not that impressive to me right now, and she APPEARS to be booking to the NW. Maybe just a big gullywasher for the SE Florida coast?? This will get sorted out I hope at 5pm. Unless this begins to re-fire she ain't gonna make a strong TS before landfall. Praise God!!
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CoalCracker
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Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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12Z runs are on the site. Don't buy into it but it shows the system slowing down, intensifying, then crossing the southern tip of Florida into the Gulf. Not a pretty scenario. Believe we'll have a much better handle on the system once the models have digested the data sets from the Hurricane Hunter Recon and NOAA Gulfstream flights.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs
Edited by CoalCracker (Wed Aug 24 2005 08:28 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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In addition to the track forecast, it'll be interesting to see the intensity forecast on the next update. The 12Z really explodes the system starting tomorrow, but its track is slower and further south than most of the models I have seen (with the exception of the ) and it actually passes over the Keys, so the center never really has to deal with land in that model solution until it hits the FL Gulf Coast at 120 hours. The SHIPS is more conservative but still brings it up to hurricane strength at 36 hours before the forecast landfall.
While the center of the system is now well-embedded in the overall convection, there appears to be some dry air that it needs to work out of its system before having an opportunity to rapidly intensify.
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Susan in Jupiter, FL
Verified CFHC User
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Someone earlier had mentioned their prediction of it landing 20-50 miles more north than prediction. Anybody have any more ideas on that?
--------------------
Susan in Jupiter, FL Survived:
Andrew, Irene, Charley, Francis,
Ivan, Jeanne, Katrina, Wilma
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Fletch
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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For those in S Florida
Broward County has closed public schools for Thursday and Friday
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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If the new position is at 25.8/77.1, the storm would have to make a hard left turn due west right now to come ashore at 26.1/80.1 where they had it going in at as of 11 a.m.
Needs .3 N but 3.0 W to make the landfall at 26.1/80.1(based on 11 a.m.).
I guess the track will be moving north for sure.
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ralphfl
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200512.marine.html
5PM is coming out
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Tropical storm center located near 25.6n 77.2w at 24/2100z
position accurate within 30 nm
present movement toward the northwest or 325 degrees at 8 kt
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susieq
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Panhandle
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Looks like Appalachicola has the bullseye once it enters the gulf.
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Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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NW at 9 means it is going faster and will move up the time it hits land.
Also they have it faster out in the gulf not much track change;
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Quote:
Looks like Appalachicola has the bullseye once it enters the gulf.
what are the chances hurricane warnings going up for miami dade county tonight or tomorrow before 8?
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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While the doomsday scenario of the 12Z is unlikely, it does seem to indicate that conditions will be favorable for significant strengthening if the system can spend a sufficient amount of time over water. The scenario where the system gets hung up near or over the peninsula would be bad news as far as heavy rain is concerned, but would potentially save someone from having to deal with a landfalling major hurricane at some point.
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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Agree with you there Steve last few frames , lost the high top clouds, be interesting to see what does with 5:00 PM track.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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i am now under a TS watch
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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TROPICAL STORM ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005
... KATRINA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR FLORIDA...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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old sailor its been out 10 misn now Tropical storm center located near 25.6n 77.2w at 24/2100z
position accurate within 30 nm
little change in track across the state.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for portions of the Hurricane Watch area later this evening.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Thank you this is really helpful information, because my building closes down during a warning and I am the middle of a huge project! 
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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