Clark
Meteorologist
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Katrina is beginning to really slow down as the ridge over the south-central US begins to erode and move out. Radar motion over the past hour shows motion of about half of an anticyclonic loop, putting the storm about in the same location it was an hour ago. Water vapor imagery (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html) clearly shows the erosion of the ridge -- no longer is the moisture seen racing around in a clockwise fashion. The trough over the northern Plains continues to flatten it out and in response, the ridge has begun to move towards the SW, pretty much as projected last night. The trough continue to move south and eastward as shortwaves rotate around its periphery over the north-central Plains. As the ridge & trough move over the course of the day, should move slowly towards the west and gradually northwest in advance of the trough, heading for a second landfall in the Panhandle in the Sunday/Monday time frame.
The storm made it a bit further south than expected, but I think it's about as far south as it is going to go. It did slow down from last night, however -- 7hrs of motion for about 55-60 miles as opposed to 75-80 miles. That's going to continue now, I feel. Where that puts the storm at second landfall only remains to be seen. It's not gonig to be a good one for wherever it ends up.
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Mobile,AL
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Jason does your station or any of the others in the Panhandle have any plans to stream coverage online 24-7 ?
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JG
Weather Hobbyist
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Quote:
Katrina is beginning to really slow down as the ridge over the south-central US begins to erode and move out. Radar motion over the past hour shows motion of about half of an anticyclonic loop, putting the storm about in the same location it was an hour ago. Water vapor imagery (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html) clearly shows the erosion of the ridge -- no longer is the moisture seen racing around in a clockwise fashion. The trough over the northern Plains continues to flatten it out and in response, the ridge has begun to move towards the SW, pretty much as projected last night. The trough continue to move south and eastward as shortwaves rotate around its periphery over the north-central Plains. As the ridge & trough move over the course of the day, should move slowly towards the west and gradually northwest in advance of the trough, heading for a second landfall in the Panhandle in the Sunday/Monday time frame.
The storm made it a bit further south than expected, but I think it's about as far south as it is going to go. It did slow down from last night, however -- 7hrs of motion for about 55-60 miles as opposed to 75-80 miles. That's going to continue now, I feel. Where that puts the storm at second landfall only remains to be seen. It's not gonig to be a good one for wherever it ends up.
A serious question. Will this rapid erosion in the ridge allow for the turn to the North to occur sooner? If so, is it possible that the erosion of the ridge will act as a drawing action, allowing the storm to parallel the ridge along the West Florida coast? I really don't see a lot of sterring currents to move this storm over the next 12 hours, but then again, I'm no expert and readily admit so upfront.
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Yeah, from 1996 to 2003 Pensacola had a few close calls with Danny in '97, Georges and Earl in '98 but lately they have all been direct hits. I don't know how much more people can take. After there were SO many emergency vehicles driving around with sirens. It's bad for people's health.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote: A serious question. Will this rapid erosion in the ridge allow for the turn to the North to occur sooner? If so, is it possible that the erosion of the ridge will act as a drawing action, allowing the storm to parallel the ridge along the West Florida coast? I really don't see a lot of sterring currents to move this storm over the next 12 hours, but then again, I'm no expert and readily admit so upfront.
Well, apparently the local NBC TV Station (WFLA) in Tampa has the storm hugging the west coast using their system. If any one of the METs wants to chime in on , please do.
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RJB
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Well between the 9am and the 10am location.
There has been a NE movement
09am - 25.2N 82.0W
10am - 25.3N 81.9W
Lets see if this is just a wobble or if this is a trend that will continue.
:?:
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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I did not expect the ridge to erode significantly until tonight or tomorrow mid-day.
The early erosion SHOULD tend to favor a more eastward path, but until there is an established motion I'm not buying it.
Just got done putting up the wood here in Destin - I may have done that for nothing, but I'd prefer that than the alternative.....
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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ummm i am thinking those cooords for the 10 am are incorrect
those are the exact coords for 8 am. find it hard to believe
they are the same
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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yes the coords for 10 am are
25.2 and 82.1
which means an exact west movement of .1
not a lot
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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JG
Weather Hobbyist
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Quote:
ummm i am thinking those cooords for the 10 am are incorrect
those are the exact coords for 8 am. find it hard to believe
they are the same
Read Clark's post above. He really explained it for me...
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Loc:
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Ron, the FLA tracking map doesn't show a path hugging the coast:
http://www.wfla.com
Is it somewhere else on the site?
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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You where Correct Sir!
I stand corrected. 
AT 10 AM EDT...1400Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WAS ESTIMATED
BY NOAA DOPPLER RADARS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
82.1 WEST. THIS POSITION IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ABOUT
50 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 70 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.
It hasn't moved N and has slid W .2
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HanKFranK
User
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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there are a couple of considerations. 's inner core hasn't improved much in appearance since overnight... the northern eyewall is still rather unimpressive. there's a solid patch of dry mid-level air which is diving sw from north florida, and should be feeding into the storm later today. should keep intensification slow and unsteady. i'd expect it to still be cat 1 this evening. tomorrow the storm should begin working the dry air out and deepen a little more steadily once it does. it will probably be nearing or at category 3 late saturday. sunday is the day that worries me.. should be moving under the upper ridge axis by then, and also be getting a slight baroclinic enhancement. i'll keep my intensity idea at category 3 because stronger hurricanes are relatively rare at landfall, but there is a possibility will be stronger.
the model consensus over the past day have oscillated to either side of the bay-gulf county area in florida. if i was in that area i'd be taking the hurricane most seriously.
the real wildcard factors right now are intensity and westward movement over the next 24-36 hrs. if stalls are moves erratically the forecast track will shift back to the big bend. if it lunges a good bit westward today it will move over to pensacola-fort walton. it's an odd-sounding thing to be hopeful for, but it might not be a bad thing if the hurricane got extremely strong while still offshore.. then the chance of an eyewall replacement cycle at landfall would be there.. like what did right before hitting in july. a temporarily stunted cat 3 is a lot better to deal with than a deepening cat 3.
landfall timeframe looks to be monday morning, august 29th. mind that in most recent cases storms have hit within a day earlier than what i was thinking. sunday night looks just as good.
HF 1433z26august
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JG
Weather Hobbyist
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Quote:
Ron, the FLA tracking map doesn't show a path hugging the coast:
http://www.wfla.com
Is it somewhere else on the site?
It was the model output for the displayed on Channel 8's 11 p.m. newscast last night.
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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on the Miami radar..it looks like the storm is trying to reform....possibly in a concentrated eyewall building/rebuilding gig...don't know...but I would discount the turn to the north just yet.
Not sure why the models and the path haven't changed...the hurricane is considerably sw of where they thought it'd be....
can't see a quick jog north...but we'll all be suprised with this one. A noted and respected meteorologist in Mobile...Dr. Bill Williams...thought this would reach major hurricane status as a 3, and for the first time....he added...maybe a 4. Now, I'm not predicting, wishcasting, etc...just letting my thoughts fly.
this is August, ya know...and hurricanes don't belong in the GOM in August...
I hope this doesn't hit anyone....but it will.
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jth
Storm Tracker
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IN the past hour, she has moved quite a bit west....That may have been a temporary slow down this morning while she consolidated. Has been a very clear west motion for the past hour.
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FloydRTurbo
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Des Moines, IA
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I heard on this morning that the seciton of the road that collapsed was under construction at the time. I would have been very suprised if even a strong Cat 1 took out a road section like that.
First poster, I've been following this website closely for that last couple weeks, great information from everyone on here. I am an insurance adjuster (independent) so i am understandably curious as to where, when and how badly Mother Nature intends to strike. I have a new found respect for her since working as my first storm in Gulf Breeze last year and I feel for all those in the panhandle that have this storm potentially bearing down on them after strong activity earlier this year. I wouldn't wish these storms on anyone - I think I got a taste of the true devastating nature, I visited Port Charlotte to get some field experience prior to getting assigned to - so I've been to 2 of the top 4 most costly hurricane sites (according to not adjusted for inflation)
It's interesting to note that the system did appear to stall temporarily (only for a few frames on http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kbyx.shtml) but now appears to have a more westerly than southwesterly component as previously shown http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html. Time will tell if this is just a wobble of an indication of the start of the northerly turning trend already. Fickle storm isn't it? At the outset it would appear that the model is still holding it's own as it has earlier this year, even though all models seems to be having trouble with this storm.
Everyone keep safe this year - and if the storm is headed your way, don't mess around. Get out! One of my first insureds I visited in Milton stayed last year for and ended up in their attic after 4 feet of water filled thei house - they had to break an escape hole in the roof.
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JG
Weather Hobbyist
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Look at that pressure drop gang. 981 mb at this buoy. Initial recon is showing an expanding windfield into the NW also.
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susieq
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Panhandle
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11:00's up. Showing Cat 3 with landfall all little bit more west...
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_5day.html
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Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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one thing that is quite noticably different from the last track versus the new track is the turn to the NE as it approaches the coast... I think once it gets on that N track, anyone above and to the right of it is going to get pounded...
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