nate77
Weather Hobbyist
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New Advisory has the Strom moving NNW and Winds down to 160, Pressure is up to 904mb..
Lets just pray this continues and it turns or falls apart.
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Clark
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Could be a sign of some slight weakening...might be an eyewall replacement cycle, but if that were to be occurring, the hurricane hunters would have full recognition of the cycle and would be noting this in the remarks sections of the vortex messages. Instead, it's probably some temporary reorganization, but we can always hope that it is something more substantial than that. I don't anticipate any Isabel-style rapid weakening, though...there's nothing to really support that right now.
It does appear as though that attenuation may not be quite the factor that I thought it might have been, judging by the last few radar frames and collaborating it with the recon report. However, attentuation is still likely playing some role with the representation of the storm on land-based radar.
Edit: on second thought, it might well be the start of an eyewall replacement cycle. The microwave data earlier today apparently -- taking the word of some pros much more trained in this than I am -- showed a second eyewall in the formative stages, something that may only have a very weak signature in radar or in wind data until the point that it is about to replace the first eyewall. What is happening now is somewhat similar to what occurred with the past cycle, where the inner eyewall remained as a fragment along the periphery of the new eyewall. This helped to keep the storm at a constant intensity for some time, longer than normal, before it really ramped up again. I'm still not sold in the least on this being the very beginnings of an eyewall replacement cycle, but feel it's probably 50/50 on that right now. We can only hope that it is.
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LI Phil
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Quote:
New Advisory has the Strom moving NNW and Winds down to 160, Pressure is up to 904mb..
Lets just pray this continues and it turns or falls apart.
i haven't checked the radar/sat in a bit...lemme check...let's hope this is the beginning of an ...if clark would like to postulate on this, it would be appreciated...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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richisurfs
Weather Guru
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Concerning a huge price increase in gasoline, I saw a report today on one of the networks that the US has enough of a crude oil reserve to cover a years worth of production from this region. It is there for a catastrophic event such as this. If our President will step up and tap into these then a huge price increase in the price of gas can be avoided. I would personally like to see him act quickly on this to prevent the oil corporations from using this as another excuse to raise prices. I also agree with Clark in that we shouldn't speculate on things like these before it even happens.
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FlaRebel
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Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Quote:
You all have no idea of how much this site means to me.....without a doubt........awesome.
we were just placed under a tornado watch....the band coming in right now made them issue it...because radar is hinting at possible formations.
In a hurricane like this one also has to be aware, not just of the sustained winds, but also of spin-off tornadoes and downbursts...
shoot....my boat is toast, ya'll....toast.....
I had an awesome view in the mornings of Dog River, Alabama...just beautiful....
well, we all go through it one way or another, don't we?
I just hope it misses New Orleans....I really do....
slash the tip of Louisiana...and hit the Alabama/Mississippi line....
Rick, you stay safe bud. I hope everyone makes it thru safely. I do see a more northerly movement to the eye. If it stays that way, it may spare the worst to NO, but wouldn't be good for Biloxi an Mobile.
my current gut feel...if you don't mind me posting this...
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flarrfan
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Spring Hill FL
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Found this on a hobby forum I check a few times a day. Poster is one of the more solid regulars at this forum and says the country's only deep water transfer port for big oil tankers is just off of Grand Isle. Anybody here that can confirm this info?
http://forums.flightsim.com/ts/dcboard.p..._id=76466#76466
Edited by flarrfan (Mon Aug 29 2005 12:16 AM)
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jr928
Weather Guru
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sure looked like the weather channel just moved the track east a bit? Did I dream that or did they barely adjust it?
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LI Phil
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Link to Image
No Image leeching from private sites - Mike C.
Edited by MikeC (Mon Aug 29 2005 12:21 AM)
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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist
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Clark: Your comment about oil is incorrect. Oil is now trading in the far east (Singapore, to be specific): http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050828/bs_nm/markets_asia_nymex_dc
Thanks; already accounted for above with another post. -Clark
Edited by Clark (Mon Aug 29 2005 12:24 AM)
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LI Phil
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ok...from now on...and i know this may be important to some people...please put the oil trading price posts in another forum...
next post on this goes bye-bye
thank you
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Actually, attenuation is no big deal at the NEXRAD sites (WSR88D and WSR98D) - these are S-band radars (10cm wavelength) and slice right through the hurricane. Some of the best radar images of Andrew (when the radar antenna was blown off the roof) came from the Melbourne WSR88D.
Cheers,
ED
(sorry LIPhil - I just edited myself!)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 29 2005 12:26 AM)
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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the IR is definately cooling off.....or warming up should I say.
(the red is disappearing)
reasons?
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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People haven't mentioned anything about tide levels, so here is a great link showing what to expect:
http://140.90.121.76/katrina.html
Looks like worst case scenario - a landfall right about high tide.
Source is NOAA Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS)
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Edit - reply to Genesis below: Actually, where I am, our max tide shift is generally about 2 feet (on the Chesapeake Bay). --RC
Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Aug 29 2005 12:44 AM)
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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Tidal range down here is only about a foot.
However, a foot is a foot, and if you're a foot away from a breach of a seawall or levee, then it matters a LOT!
Nonetheless it is NOT like the tidal range you get up on the east coast, where there is a large swing from low to high tide.
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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Clark - the eyewall seems to be enlarging, pressure is up a tad, and the land based winds speeds lower a fraction.. it appears to resemble an that I have seen in the past. But, with 88 - 90 degree water ahead of , is it possibly too early and she may well gain more strength?
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WhitherWeather
Verified CFHC User
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Don't know if this vindicates Thomas's call on where she'll come ashore, but I made my own anim I could follow of the last Visible Satellite Floater that's on the first page of this thread, because the one linked too jumps back and forth between different views and I couldn't tell what was happening. The one I made is below. I just lined up the coastal outline for each shot, so the cropping of the outer bands is different, but at least the eye can be followed. I put some crossing lines demarking outer edges of the eye from first frame to last frame, and it seems to me that in the last three or four frames, she takes a northward lean. YMMV.
WhitherWeather
Edited by WhitherWeather (Mon Aug 29 2005 12:51 AM)
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twizted sizter
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That was cool...been looking as well & noticed the shift...but it was predicted to turn north about this point...looks like her eye has grown...what an amazing storm.
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LI Phil
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flipping thru the major media...just caught msnbc & chris matthews...he asked the question "a lot o f people have seen the tsunami photos...will the people here see a 'wall of water' like that?'" before he could answer, i mouthed, "yes"...
unfortunately...storm surge is like that...it is going to resemble a "wall of water" which piles up on shore, and then, on top of the water which has piled on shore, and then on top of that...
i hope there is a remote camera to capture this, because i sure hope no human tries to...he/she won't be around to describe it... 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Sneakbridge
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Highlands County, Florida
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The eye might have grown but doesn't look as cylindrical, which means it could weaken before landfall... let's pray..
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Miami Beach, FLA USA
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may be the beginning stages of an ...let's hope so
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