Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Ed was just reading your blog of 11:00 am 9/10. It is amazing that this storm has moved merely one tenth degree south and a tenth or so east of the stats over 24 hours ago. I know there has been movement or drifting, but this is amazing. Is there any possibility that this storm will survive to go around the blockage at the south. I know the question was asked indirectly a while ago, and I read the answer. But those highs to the north really look too high to allow any northward travel unless Ophelia's air pressures start to rise and it does not matter anymore.
It really is amazing - when the storm started to move, who would have thought it would stall again so soon?
Are you asking if there is a possibility that Ophelia may sneak under the high and head west? The high definately seems to be blocking northward motion right now, but Ophelia is also looking ragged on the satellite.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I was specifically wondering about about a westward move through Georgia and back into the panhandle of Florida as a tropical depression or borderline Tropcial Storm. I don't see it as a sneak because I think that her relative pressures could increase which would cause her to more or less blend in to the surrounding pressures.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I was specifically wondering about about a westward move through Georgia and back into the panhandle of Florida as a tropical depression or borderline Tropcial Storm. I don't see it as a sneak because I think that her relative pressures could increase which would cause her to more or less blend in to the surrounding pressures.
One of the models was showing that the other day (I forget which model and which day, it's been a long week). When I saw it I showed it to a co-worker and we had a good laugh. I suppose it's possible, but it doesn't seem probable. Right now (last couple of hours), Ophelia looks like a pinball - bouncing around and ending up pretty much right where she was to start with. It's going to take a weakness somewhere for the storm to move - where that weakness occurs is going to be interesting.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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While its true that the ridge to the north of Ophelia is a lot stronger than the ridge to her south and west, a low pressure system north of Maine is expected to move eastward into the Atlantic and create a weakness in the ridge to her north. This would allow Ophelia to move north and eventually northeast as the strong westerlies currently to the north of the storm begin to relax. The high pressure ridge from the Great Lakes to Alabama (and even north Florida) is not moving much at all, but it presents quite a block against any significant westward movement. Ophelia is still 'stuck' in place as it has been all weekend. While there has been some jogs to the north and to the east, there really hasn't been any definitive movement for a couple of days. The warnings and watches issued by seem to be a worthwhile precaution given the uncertainty of her future track. Ophelia certainly has a track record of some weakening and stalling in the evening followed by rebuilding and short movements in the morning. Until the overall weather pattern changes, her movement is still a 'best guess'.
Cheers,
ED
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bigpapi
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Myrtle Beach, SC
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It appears the and have both stayed with their more south and west tracks for two straight runs. The 18Z just came out. Does anyone believe the may adjust at 11pm? I believe they have relied on the moreso this year than last. I could be wrong though.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
It appears the and have both stayed with their more south and west tracks for two straight runs. The 18Z just came out. Does anyone believe the may adjust at 11pm? I believe they have relied on the moreso this year than last. I could be wrong though.
They try not to make major adjustments to the forecast track because models can wobble... but the forecast from 5pm is now well east of the model consensus, so they may adjust if the trend continues - or they may forecast a stalling again because the models are spread out again. has been effective for some storms, but I don't think Ophelia is one of them.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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jusforsean
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Broward County
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Hi,
Question, where can i find a link to the model and others everyone seems to be looking at?
Thanks
Regina
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bigpapi
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 31
Loc: Myrtle Beach, SC
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Just go to the bottom of the main page. There is a link for the models. The latest ones are the 18Z models. The next ones to come out will be 00Z starting on September 12th. The only ones that have updated so far are the and the GSF. Have Fun 
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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upper high to the northwest, upper high to the southeast, ophelia in the middle. earlier on i was thinking that the high over the continent would win out, but the upper westerlies haven't abated enough to let the storm slide westward. if ophelia was shallower it would have already run towards ga or sc, but in spite of upwelling and subsidence entrainment the storm is maintaining a sub 980mb central pressure. ophelia is neither here nor there, though... so neither flow mechanism is moving the storm much.. and the highs are cancelling one another, too. if ophelia weakens some it might run further west, but after taking the bait the other day and pegging the sc coast, the storm has remained stuck and will probably bust me. the eastern part of north carolina, which as-of-late gets almost all of the action on the east coast, has the greatest chance of being affected climatologically and realistically, as ophelia is remaining stalled and steady-state.
HF 1401z12september
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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could this come off the coast re strenghten and make a second landfall NYC-MTK-BOX(new york city, montauk, boston)??..please let me know, thanks.
_RYAN
EDIT: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...Animation..look at the 102 hour, it shows cat 1 force strength being in the easter side of the storm so in 102 hours thats over NYC, western LI, and the Jersey shore..what do people think has pretty trusty has it not?
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
Edited by Ryan (Mon Sep 12 2005 03:00 AM)
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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All of the models...and the for that matter...are really having a hard time with this one...read the 11 disco...interesting choice of words...have even left the door open for a shift west based on what some of the models are now showing...guess we'll know where she's going when she gets there.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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The 99 times out of 100 overdoes wind speeds with storms having made landfall; moving into the midlatitudes and ultimately off to the northeast; or both. I'd take those figures with a serious grain of salt, but not downplay the threat altogether. There is still the potential for tropical storm-force winds up that way in areas near-shore, but hurricane-force? Not likely.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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HanKFranK
User
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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the group has moved to the left... something else starting to show up that i'd discounted earlier.. but only the has a quick/clean recurvature now. the rest have it slowing down near the coast before taking it out, stalls it and loops it off nc, and the canadian kinda splits it and chucks one piece sw to florida (albeit weak/gone).
it's late, but i'm seeing other interesting things in the medium range globals and ensemble anomalies. not to mention getting a feel on the untrustworthy pulse of . end of the month/early october could be quite interesting.
HF 0620z12september
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Ok, I'm giving a quick paraphrase of the 2nd paragraph of the 5am discussion from : "We have no clue where she's going, and the models aren't helping."
Here's the original, unparaphrased one: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/120907.shtml
Thats how I read it. Looking at the models, here in MD with NE exposure, I'm not liking her track. It's better for a storm to go inland than along the coast becuase of wind direction.
The model consensus is continuing to drift eastward, now just skirting NC before shooting up almost on the coast until Canada. However, we have seen Ophelia refuse to move before when we expected her too, and we've seen that her sitting and drifting has a major influence on the long term path. With sending her south, not moving her, taking her inland then northeast, and UKMET keeping her along the coast...I still think anything's possible.
Looking at IR...she looks sick. So much dry air in her, so little convection. Yet somehow she's holding on the hurricane strength. If she moves over warm water again, she could regain her form...and possibly grow. Something to watch whenever she actually starts moving.
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Yikes
Verified CFHC User
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Thoughts regarding Charleston, SC , this area is now under TS and H watch. Supposed to be traveling to Charleston today. Any information you could share regarding factors that could generate a more westerly swing would be appreciated.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Yikes: Let me try and explain as best I understand - a met or HF would be much better, but lacking them, I might be able to get it right
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html
The high pressure over the eastern US is eroding and moving slowly east. As it does this it opens a potential westward movement path. It's still at least a day off before Ophelia's likely to move, and if you look at the model tracks, it isn't until midweek (late tues, wed, or early thurs) that landfall would occur...if it ever occurs...or if it occurs anywhere near the time or space the models indicate.
The real question is what happens with the high over the Atlantic. Earlier this week it was forcast to stay where it was, possibly strengthen, and thus as the high over the US weakened the one over the atlantic would push Ophelia toward land.
That has changed. The Atlantic high has drifed east and weakened slightly, moving the forcing for Ophelia further out to sea. The result is that as the high over the US weakens and moves east Ophelia might not track west as was expected earlier this week. That's why the models are now predicting a more northward movement...however, it could be just as possible to stall or have a southward movement...ie and solutions respectively.
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J.C.
Unregistered
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What are the chances that this thing could actually landfall inland near Morehead City NC and enter the Sound area's and stall in the sounds or maybe do some kind of loop ast the & ukmet are showing at the 0600z models show. My concern is that it will come inland and stall again and pound the coastal area's from Tuesday-Friday with even minimal cat 1 or as a high level TS. Does anybody see any type of possibility playing out? I'm located near 35.2N-76.7W.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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J.C. - refering back to my first post this morning:
Quote:
Ok, I'm giving a quick paraphrase of the 2nd paragraph of the 5am discussion from : "We have no clue where she's going, and the models aren't helping."
Anything's possible. Anything. What is the chance of 1 in a billion possible tracks?
It's fine to look at the steering layers and say "this might happen" or "this is probably what the models are picking up" or "this ridge is keeping her from going east" but the fact is we don't know. We have a few limiters, such as the storm can't move far east becuase of that Atlantic ridge. But that's about the only limiting factor we have in the long term. There is no forcing of the storm any direction. There is no "only one route" method. As a result it could go anywhere. The model tracks are still all over the place.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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J.C.,
The climatology, which I think plays a large part in thinking on the track, is interesting:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200516_climo.html
I was expecting to see most of the stroms in a similar position go out to sea, but it's really a mixed bag.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Magic Hat
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Lucedale, MS
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Quote:
mjo. end of the month/early october could be quite interesting.
HF 0620z12september
Don't even go there... please. The problem is I was taught to watch those darn love bugs. When they are thick, then expect a storm to blow them away. George Co, MS had a few when we left, but between MS and Jacksonville, FL, we found a herd of the buggers. Not scientific, I know, but their past accuracy makes me wonder what is coming.
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