Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Wednesday- 1:30PM Update
Ophelia is moving slowly north northeast this morning near the Carolina coast, parts of the northern eyewall are along the coast and it has slowly strengthened this morning.
CFHC Recording ongoing of Wilmington, NC Radar
Also a wave in the Atlantic east of the Islands, called 95L is worth being tracked as it has about a 3/10 chance to become a depression over the next two days.
Tuesday - 6:30PM Update
Ophelia has again attained hurricane status, now with winds of 75mph, with some slight additional strengthening possible before it makes landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday. The storm has begun to move toward the north, with a gradual acceleration and turn to the northeast likely over the course of the next few days. Stay tuned for future updates.
Tuesday - 10AM Update
Ophelia remains a strong Tropical Storm although latest recon noted that an eyewall structure was attempting to form. Convective banding has also improved and so has the outflow to the northeast.
At 13/14Z, Ophelia was located near 32.2N 78.1W - movement generally now to the northwest at 4 or 5mph. Movement should become more northerly by this evening. Minimal hurricane intensity is still possible - especially with the improved overall structure that is evident this morning. Continue to monitor for the latest changes to watches and warnings.
Original Post
Ophelia has had a rough day - and, at least for the moment, thats good news for the folks along the Carolina coasts. At 13/00Z, now Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near 31.9N 77.6W, or just over 250 miles south southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Movement is to the west northwest at 5mph - and with a strong ridge still in place to the north and a weakening ridge to the west, I'd expect that motion to continue. Clark's article (see below) covers the expected track, intensity and landfall threat areas.
Dry air entrainment (currently still ongoing primarily from the north) and sea surface cooling (upwelling) have weakened Ophelia and dissipated the entire central core of the storm. She is now a strong Tropical Storm with a low-level circulation center surrounded by strong outer convective bands and she is beginning to look somewhat like a subtropical system rather than a tropical one. The only tropical source of energy is the Gulfstream and Ophelia is cooling off a small area of that.
With such a large disruption in structure, I'd be surprised if she can make it back to hurricane status - although I'm beginning to believe that with this storm, surprises are the norm rather than the exception. While eventual landfall seems likely in the NC/SC border area, the long-term track is still a bit up in the dry air. Some of the models suggest that the approaching trough off to the northwest will not pick up Ophelia and carry her off to the northeast. It is still a possibility that the trough will only nudge the storm a little northeast and then east back over open water again - in other words we could be tracking this storm for quite some time (which sounds a bit redundant).
Folks along the North Carolina and South Carolina coasts are beginning to feel the effects of Ophelia's outer rainbands and should continue to monitor her movement and intensity closely.
ED
Clark's comments from the previous thread:
Ophelia reminds me a bit of Isidore from 2002, albeit for different reasons. Weakened storm that is still organized enough to be near hurricane intensity, but disrupted enough by external influences (here, upwelling and potentially dry air; heard a few debates on the topic today) to result in a storm with a relatively flat wind profile that, while moving into a more favorable environment, is not conducive to any quick development (if any at all). Expect the storm to come in near this intensity. I expect this storm to come in between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington sometime late tomorrow or on Wednesday -- a little further south of the position is my guess -- before turning toward the north at a slow clip. Potential threat to the DelMarVa, Long Island, and New England is there, but other than high surf, gusty winds, and a couple-few inches of rain, it's nothing to write home about.
Wave out in the Cent. Atlantic bears some watching, but the upper-low in the same area needs to fill or move out before anything is to get going out there. There has been some model support for something and those waters are largely untouched this year -- in fact, the area east of 40W contains what are probably the least-disturbed waters this season outside of the SW Caribbean, though this is likely to form further west of there -- so it bears watching. Cape Verde season, which never really got going in earnest, is largely done with troughing taking over the tropical east Atlantic.
Waters remain anamolously cool in the Gulf and off of the SE coastline due to and Ophelia, respectively. It's still enough to get something going in the Gulf, but the threat for another big storm has been greatly diminished at least for the time being -- if not the entire season, as now is the time when air temperatures begin to fall and start to take the SSTs with them. Only 6 more storms gets us to the end of the list; with another one or two likely this month and the potential for a fairly active October, it's a fair bet that we make a run at the end of the list.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
Report conditions from Ophelia in your area In this thread
Event Related Links
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RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations)
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Ophelia
Animated model plots of Ophelia
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Floater IR Satellite of Ophelia
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Floater Visible Satellite of Ophelia
Wave 95L
Edited by MikeC (Wed Sep 14 2005 05:30 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Just a quick note on the latest recon: Ophelia hasn't made the expected NW movement predicted by the yet, and is now west of it's predicted position and track:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
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noooo
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Post deleted by HanKFranK
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prideman
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Voluntary evacs are starting in Myrtle Beach from East of Hwy 17. Just had a pretty good rain band move through. Still waiting to see a more northward turn so it will miss us, but the more west it moves, the more we feel.
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prideman
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Old Sailor
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Loc: Florida
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About 3 days ago I had the feeling that Ophellia will make land fall in Mid SC coast. Tonight still feel that more so . unless can make one hard right turn soon.
being a TS would be better for her to make a faster land fall to the west.
Dave
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Old Sailor
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Ed,
Just looked again at Ophelia this thing looks like it just lost most of it's Tropical Low and now seems to be a sub low. maybe wrong here.
Dave
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I took a close look at the low level center (not easy to do with IR imagery) and it looks like a slow movement to the west northwest so I've corrected the main article. Its also possible that the LLC is just wobbling around the former inner core area - but thanks for pointing out the recon data. Also updated the main article to include all of the SC coast in the area influenced by the outer bands.
Cheers,
ED
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Last recon fix is now showing a southerly movement. We'll see if this pans out over the long term, or if it's just a wobble. I'm wondering if was onto something earlier? Now is inline with the other models though.
It needs to make that northward turn soon or Ophelia will get quite near the coast, and likely have the core pass over more than just the barrier islands.
--RC
Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Sep 13 2005 02:20 AM)
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CarolinaGurl
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Loc: Wilmington/Kure Beach, NC
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Here in the Wilmington/Kure Beach area we have had the beginnings of the rain bands coming in. The webcam at Kure Beach is saying the max winds today was 50 mph, they are steady at about 20 mph. We have had .15 inches of rain in the last hour. Our county has called for mandatory evac of the islands and low lying areas. The only mandatory evac is for UNCW students. We actually have some students from Tulane that I am sure are thinking they made a bad choice in coming here.
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My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur
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J.C.
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Been away from the computer for awhile. I Just saw a burst of convection to the east of the broard center. I also saw on the recon data that the flight level winds were 72kts which would transfer to the surface a 74.52mph storm in the se quad. Does anyone see this thing now strenghtening because it has to be getting very close to the Gulf Stream? J.C.
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Clark
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The standard flight-level reduction rules don't apply with this storm, based upon surface wind measurements from a multitude of sources. This is not uncommon for storms in the mid-latitudes, storms that have been disrupted by land, storms feeling the effects of upwelling and/or dry air, or storms in their organization phases. Flight level winds at 700mb of 72kt which may normally correspond to that 74.52mph figure (90% reduction) are likely lower, probably necessitating an 80-85% reduction factor based upon the aformentioned surface measurements. Simply put, when you have actual surface measurements, you almost always want to go with those over estimated fields from upper-levels, as no two storms are alike.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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HanKFranK
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there's a good bit more deep convection associated with ophelia this evening than there was earlier today, but the storm still has no real inner core. if it gets one back, it will be one of those ragged eye annular type storms. clark referred to isidore in 2002 as a reference system... not bad in this case. the storm is gaining vertical depth even if it doesn't do any reintensfication, so the westward jaunt will probably come to an end. today it has gone erratically wnw, now roughly due south of wilmington. i'm not really sure where it's going to come in, because it should be turning as it does, and the coastline will be oblique to it. add to that the fact that the storm center is very broad, and it could easily make the same sort of landfall that alex did in august 2004... partial. it could edge in very close to extreme eastern south carolina, around north myrtle beach. more likely it'll move across brunswick county north carolina, between calabash and cape fear. may or may not be a hurricane... but regardless there are going to be frequent squalls with gale force winds over a large area from georgetown northward all along the north carolina coast.. should be mostly a nuisance storm, but a long-lasting nuisance. the earlier progs capturing ophelia late in the week have pretty much evaported, so unless the storm unexpectedly decouples, it'll more than likely whip out to sea. might move close enough to cape cod/nantucket to mess the weather up there, but i doubt it will landfall in new england as some models have sporadically shown.
several of the globals are showing a disturbance in the western caribbean and another from the wave near the africa/islands midway point around the weekend timeframe. that wave does appear to be progressing (the effect of the enhancing anomalies looks to already be present in the eastpac), so the atlantic ought to perk up some next week going into the end of the month. it looks to be coming on faster than i'd thought...
HF 0609z13september
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zacros
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From looking at the long-range radar, Ophelia finally seems to be making the northward turn. I know that will certianly make my day a lot easier here in Charleston. Looks like about half the sand on the newly renourished portion of Folly Beach is gone. Lots of northeast wind and big waves are chewing it up.
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bigpapi
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Actually, looking at the Long Range Radar it appears a smaller center has materialized. Looks like the core could be returning. Looking at that it appears to be a slow northwest movement. Conditions here in Myrtle Beach are going downhill right now. Gusty winds and showers.
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WisconsinWill
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Quote:
there's a good bit more deep convection associated with ophelia this evening than there was earlier today, but the storm still has no real inner core. if it gets one back, it will be one of those ragged eye annular type storms.
That's what I thought, too, but the latest NEXRAD imagery from Wilmington shows gradually improving organization and what I'll call an "eyewall-type" feature in progress. A meso-eddy had been rotating cyclonically around the inner edge of the much larger radius of maximum wind, and that little eddy now seems to settled into the center and is picking up some decent convection (~30 dBZ). In any case, it looks like Ophelia is poised to beome a hurricane for the 4th time. Recon should let us know within the hour.
Will
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zacros
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I see that as well. Looking at the long range radar ealier this morning, the inner core was just starting to build. It is definately starting to organize a little better, at least on radar. Also, the movement does appear to be more northwest, although the official 8 AM update says the storm is moving nnw. Maybe the inner core is still playing catch-up with the rest of the system.
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bigpapi
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Very small pressure drop. Let's see if when the core gets reestablished if pressures fall a little faster. Water temperatures are warmer now for this storm then a few days ago.
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Random Chaos
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According to recon, she's moved due north over the past 6 hours (recon's about an hour old...last one was 6 hours earlier). Looking at IR and WV, she looks to be nearly stationary again.
This is one hard to track storm!
She's also weakened, with max interpolated surface wind now at 35kt - she's barely holding onto TS strength. Flight level winds are only 53kts.
Recon fixes: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
Vortex message: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/URNT12.KNHC (copied below)
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236
URNT12 KNHC 131149
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/11:26:30Z
B. 32 deg 12 min N
077 deg 50 min W
C. 700 mb 2996 m
D. 35 kt
E. 304 deg 072 nm
F. 047 deg 053 kt
G. 297 deg 043 nm
H. 989 mb
I. 10 C/ 3048 m
J. 11 C/ 3047 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF300 2116A OPHELIA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 53 KT NW QUAD 11:13:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 12 C, 273 / 16NM
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bigpapi
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Looks like the new core just wrapped itself around. Let's see if the convection wraps around that. Just read Bastardi's update. He still believes this gets up to a 90kt storm!! I find that hard to fathom. However I give him credit because he sticks to his guns.
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WisconsinWill
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Quote:
Looks like the new core just wrapped itself around. Let's see if the convection wraps around that. Just read Bastardi's update. He still believes this gets up to a 90kt storm!! I find that hard to fathom. However I give him credit because he sticks to his guns.
That's certainly a bold forecast, but I find it a bit more believable now than I would have 12 hours ago -- Ophelia continues to get better organized, with WIlmington NEXRAD showing a patch of 64+kt knot winds northeast of the center, and an expanding area of 50-60kt winds west of the center -- about 10 kt stronger than when recon penetrated from the west a little while ago. I have a hunch they'll find something a bit stronger next time around. The radius of maximum wind is still quite large, but if the current trend continues, it will probably contract as we go through the day. With at least another 24 hours over water and SSTs generally 80 to 82 along the path, some intensification above the 65kt currently forecast by is certainly possible.
Will
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