Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
ANY DATA ON THE SST'S DOWN THERE? THE GRAPHS SUGGEST MID 80'S...ANY SPECIFICS?
Yeah, VERY warm with high heat content:
26C+ SST range: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/sst2.watl.20050927.gif
Depth of 26C Isotherm: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/z26.watl.20050927.gif
Heat potential: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/hh3.watl.20050927.gif
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Buoy 42058, which is located in the general vicinity of 99L, reported a water temp of 85.5 F the last hour. That area has been generally untouched this season and both the obs and various analyses indicate that there is plenty of available energy in that area for any system that organizes enough to take advantage of it.
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Pensacola, FL
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I don't know, but this scares me. Looks like it's starting to develop. Spells more Gulf trouble.  All we need on the gulf coast right now. , , , . All at least CAT 3 in 1 years time in the gulf!! Not to mention Emily that hit Mexico just south of Texas not long after hit here.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Well, I just looked over the model runs. Frankly, the models just aren't picking this thing up much yet - there doesn't seem to be any consistancy in vorticity tracks, and pressure completely loses it.
No idea where it's going until model come out with a stronger storm as input data.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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The satellite representation looks better all the time.
Looks like convection around a center and further development all the way around now to the west quardrant with the higher and brighter cloud tops...
Could be close to clyclone formation
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doug
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Emily went through there on her way to Cozumel, hugging the south shore of Cuba, but that seems like aeons ago.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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ParrishNStPeteFL
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Pinellas County, St. Petersbur...
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Any idea of the time frame for development in the gulf? Doing some traveling around the 13th of October, flying...to Texas.
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The energy you emit will return to you, have grace and gratitude in all you do.
'Lil Weather Bug
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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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Yes, it's hard to believe that it was only about 10 weeks ago we were holding our breath with Emily. Besides breaking weather records, this year's also breaking storm weariness records. For those interested, my son and family are fine as is their home in Houston. He returned yesterday from his in laws in Fort Smith, AR and returned to work at the Barbours Cut Container Terminal this morning at the Port of Houston. Port facilities reopened today to truck traffic and to daylight ship traffic with 35 or less feet of draught. Coast Guard is still checking the Houston ship channel to ensure all navigational aids are working properly and that there are no hazards to navigation. There are dozens of tankers and container ships waiting offshore for the all clear. Looks like he'll be pulling 12 to 16 hour days until things get back to normal.
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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Satellite Bch FL
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Should 99L develop it would be long gone from the GOM by the second week of October
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The convection with 99L has died down somewhat in the last couple of hours. The system has improving outflow, but it may wait until tonight (assuming the usual nocturnal increase in convection occurs) to take another step forward, it it does at all.
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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Satellite Bch FL
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2 Hurricane Hunter missions sched tomorrow to evaluate 99L - as noted ocean temps are well warm enough to support a storm - shear is forecast to decrease and will likely have a tropical depression in 24 hrs
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Actually it looks better organized to me this aft, with a center at about 17N 77.6W. It is coming tog fast and the water it is approaching, just south of Jamaica and Cuba, are the warmest in the entire Carribean; I expect a TD shortly, and a TS shortly after that.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Convergence
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Ellicott City, Maryland
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Yes, this kind of structure seems to be a transitional stage between disturbance and well-formed cyclone.
As an aside, Typhoon Longwang is now pointing directly at China. Yes, that's what I said.
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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
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CoalCracker - good to hear your family is fine.
Has anyone heard from BeaumontTX yet? I'm sure he hasn't been able to get to his home at this point. Heard they are still turning people away from that area.
99L is a Bear Watch IMO. Possibly south Texas. I know they need the rain (so do we) but hopefully it will only be a TD/TS. Have watched the models today. All confused. I can't get a good handle on anything. I do think we might get something from the African coast - most models are supporting "something" but not in the near future. I've got this nagging feeling but can't quite figure it out. I "heard" someone say we may be in for a surprise in October/November - hopefully not a large one. I'm done with this season. This used to be fun. 
God bless everyone. (especially the gulf coast)
Time to spend some family time. See you all tomorrow.
p.s. just heard the local met say that we will have a TD tomorrow.
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Even though the models are not picking up 99L as of yet look to them for guidence in ridge development for possible track.Then use some other tools like the SST's and wind shear maps to get some kind analyisis.
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oil trader
Weather Watcher
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Quote:
Actually it looks better organized to me this aft, with a center at about 17N 77.6W. It is coming tog fast and the water it is approaching, just south of Jamaica and Cuba, are the warmest in the entire Carribean; I expect a TD shortly, and a TS shortly after that.
If you do not want a $5 price of gallon I hope you are wrong. What we need the least now it is a hurricane over the Bay of Campeche. Everybody is so confident about damages because it was not . But during her path in GOM over oil and gas rigs and platforms was CAT 5 and mostly CAT 4 (remember ?), and do not forget TX/LA border refineries. Economic consequences and real pain on American pockets starts tomorrow with the DOE stock weekly report. We can deplete the SPR, but where the light crude (not sour) and the gas will came from? Below $4 keep your tank full and drive as less as you can.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I agree as the oil has dropped in price per barrel but the refineries make gasoline out of the oil and the refineries did take a beating. However, the US is going to have to pay the consequences of depending on oil so much. As for the storm, we will pray for small rain makers rather than large news makers.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Reaper
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 45
Loc: Lake Placid, Fla
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Is there a new area of rotation just off the coast of Panama City, Fl?
Edited by Reaper (Tue Sep 27 2005 11:38 PM)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Our local news pointed out that there is a weak surface low with an upper level low just south. We currently are experiencing thunderstorms and nice rain. They are not making much out of it.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Reaper
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Lake Placid, Fla
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I couldn't figure out how to get an animation in the post, but this is the area I was posting about:
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