Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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2AM Tuesday Update
Stan is rapidly intensifying this evening, not entirely unexpected given the favorable conditions aloft and in the Bay of Campeche, the organization of the storm, and the high probability of rapid intensification predicted by the SHIPS model. Stan is now forecast to make landfall in about 36hr as a 105mph category 2 hurricane. More in the morning.
9AM Monday 3.October.2005
The wave near the Bahamas (92L) is being watched for future development. More to come tonight on this.
From Ed Dunham:
A tropical wave is interacting with a trough of low pressure to the east of the Bahamas and the system is slowly becoming better organized as it drifts westward.
Wind shear to the north of the system is forecast to slowly relax by Tuesday evening and allow for some additional development of this large area of showers and thunderstorms. Although still not a sure thing, it is possible that
this area will develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.
Movement should be to the west and eventually northwest toward Florida. Even if the system does not fully develop, almost all of the Florida peninsula can expect a prolonged period of showers - some of them heavy - and gusty winds for the rest of the week. Shower activity should increase Tuesday evening through Friday and total rainfall could be significant before this period of unsettled weather finally ends.
At 29C, sea surface temperatures are still warm enough to support tropical cyclone development - the next name on the list for this busy season is Tammy. The last year to reach this high into the alphabet was 1995, with Hurricane Tanya. The 1995 storm, Tanya formed in late October.
Original Update
Early this Sunday morning TD 20 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Stan - the eighteenth named storm of this highly active Atlantic season. Stan was upgraded just before he made landfall south of Tulum on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico and he is now moving westward across the Yucatan - and he has probably weakened to a Tropical Depression at this time.
Stan is expexted to continue westward across the Yucatan and emerge into the Bay of Campeche by Monday Morning. Movement should continue to the west and eventually west southwest with landfall along the east central Mexican coast. Current projections intensify the storm to hurricane strength prior to landfall, however, modest wind shear exists across the Yucatan and the southern Gulf of Mexico so attaining hurricane strength is still questionable.
Stan
Tropical Depression 19 in the far eastern Atlantic west of the Cape Verde Islands continues to move slowly northward into increasing westerly shear. There is a small chance that this system could attain tropical storm strength before it weakens and dissipates in a few days - but its a very small chance since the wind shear to the north of the system is quite strong.
An area of gathering convection has flared up along a trough axis near 24.5N 70W as a tropical wave interacts with a stationary upper level low northeast of the southern Bahamas. The convection is currently parked in an area of light shear, so some slow development is possible over the next few days.
A tropical low near 12N 42W at 02/12Z is moving to the west northwest with convection displaced to the south. Because of a somewhat hostile upper air environment, development of this area, if any, will be slow.
If you use the for guidance, the entire basin is about to settle into a quieter period for the next two or three weeks. I'd expect another final effort at activity from about 20 October through 10 November - perhaps another one or two storms before this hectic season comes to a much welcomed close.
ED
TS Stan
Animated model plot of TS Stan
92L
Edited by Clark (Tue Oct 04 2005 06:15 AM)
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Wxwatcher2
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I make this comment tongue in cheek, kidding as it were.
What do you all think of the possibility of Stan curving more to the North and hitting the Florida Panhandle?
On a more serious note, yes it's been a very active and deadly hurricane season. One thing I'm thankful for is that out of all the record number of named storms, only a few have caused any real concern for the .
Still keeping an eye on the tropics but looking ahead to the end of the storm season.
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Cindi
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Quote:
What do you all think of the possibility of Stan curving more to the North and hitting the Florida Panhandle?
You may be kidding...but that is exactly what Opal did in 1995 ... and during these same days  I can't wait for this season to end, too 
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HanKFranK
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still a mix of modeling showing stan either moving onshore in mexico or getting stuck down near the BoC. worth mentioning that modeling that shows stan 'coming up' around next weekend have an unrealistic evolution for the storm and are just as suggestive that something else will be coming up east of it. stan is going to meet complicated steering... the ridging to the north isn't overpowering, there's the drag of land (in central mexico mountainout land), and even a potential interaction with a potential new tropical system south of the gulf of tehuantepec on the pacific side. late in the period the large high building in should force the system southward or eastward... early the effect will be to stall it or push it slowly west or southwest.
anyhow, there's more energy coming in from the sw caribbean (sheared from the nw, but converging well against the anomalous westerly flow across central america, perhaps a negative pulse of at work). this is a potential 'other system culprit'. there's the mess off the east coast which isn't looking worse for wear either... several vorticity maximums in it strung from west of bermuda down to the southeast bahamas now. some of that may punch across florida into the eastern gulf and try to develop over there, as indicated in some modeling. there's also a good convective flare near puerto rico, and a festering trough with good conditions aloft east of the islands... and of course waning TD 19 and the lackluster but present hybrid low to the north of that. even a good looking wave near the cv islands right now.
throw all that together and there's too much going on to be sure what's exactly going to happen.. but my best bet is that the storm system being drawn up the east coast late next week is legit--there's a ton of energy feeding into the pattern and it's going to want to come up when the trough arrives. exactly how it will evolve out of all this mess, or even if it is somehow stan trying to come up i'm not sure. we could have another system or two out there.. or there's even the possibility that it's non-tropical (though i'm more of the school it will be a baroclinically-enhanced tropical system). anyhow, east coast... from florida up to new england... there is model support for bad weather of indeterminate nature late in the week. not sure whether it'll be a well-formed tropical system, a sloppy rainy one, a hybrid one, or even somehow more than one.. maybe it'll even be no system but just a bunch of confused weather getting drawn up into a front. this is a high-energy pattern, though, so i'm expecting something or somethings.
HF 1453z02october
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dkpcb
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I remember Opal in 1995, I believe it was October 4 or 5.
We did not have time to evacuate.
Had to turn back because of the traffic and ride it out with family
in town, thankfully it did not hit us directly, but still had a lot of damage.
I will keep on eye on Stan, in case it turns like Opal did.
RK
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Beaumont, TX
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I agree this has been a hectic season. Wonder if they will end up using all of the names on the list.
Anyway, this has been some season and the storms have been interesting to follow. We are still without
power so have not returned home yet but Entergy is making good progress so we are hoping to be home soon.
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Beaumont, TX
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Just wanted to thank you for mentioning in your comments that Texas might be in for a storm (way before headed our way). Once formed I had a pretty good ideal she was headed for Texas although I did think
it would be closer to the Galveston area (we still would had had winds and rain but probably not the extensive damage we did). I appreciate this site so much and have learned a great deal from it this season. I have always followed the storms and this has been one of the most interesting seasons I can remember. And I have been a coastal resident most of my life. Once again, thanks to all of you who have given so much information.
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typhoon_tip
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Hi HankFrank!
Check this out:
"A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...IS CENTERED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD."
We've been watching the U/A gyre bore its way down to the surface for a few days... Interesting to say the least, considering that a large sprawling area of surface pressure is slated unanimously by the models to envelop the nations heart land by 120 hours... With the ridge in the middle latitudes of the Atlantic Ocean Basin holding firm, this implies/teleconnects to a weakness to the sea-lvl pressure field along just off the SE Coast; concurrent with an actual frontal boundary stalling in that vicinity, the models are representing this spatial orientation of features quite well.
As a result, most guidance (especially the GGEM) are attempting to develop some kind of system there. It is complicated because there are tropical/hybrid type contaminations to any cyclogenisis behavior, depending on the respective models. Example, the ECM closes off a decent U/A low near the SE Ohio Valley by said time, while there is both an active baroclinic field along and just off the East Coast. There is also a nebulously defined tropical low in the Gulf, which “could” under ECM circumstances develop and be pulled NE out ahead of the baroclinic zone as a separate entity – that is “could”. Could be an attempt to have something base on teleconnections alone which is as you know more merely implies numerical instability; thing is, with enhanced potential, a systems often find a trigger anyway. Similarly, the GGEM seems to initiate a tropical/hybrid type circulation in the NE Gulf, but differs in that it depicts a S/W picking it up and absorbing in a system deepening more like a mid-lat cyclone near the Del Marva. …The is flatter overall and doesn’t tend to much development of either…UKMET, all the solutions I’ve seen range similarly to this overall pattern evolution.
Obviously at these time ranges there is a question of predictive skill…But, the pattern certainly does in the least leave room for excitement later in the week and beyond.
As to Stan… I have no problem with HPC forecast for Stan, however, I am a bit concerned that the global models are tussling with the on where Stan will be after 72 hours. As you know, HPC calls for it to migrate into Mexico while never gaining latitude. I agree with limited right component for that time period, but, the conflict for me is that the barotropic models will not pick up changes in the westerlies as well as the global models do, and this does leave some room for Stan to do more of a stall and not actually make it onto land in Mexico. Granted, the lesser of the possibilities, but with early discussion topics, would add to interests in the Gulf because you have the same essential set-up with a actually fully evolved system potentially there…
Wow, very complex! Of course, this is a rough draft of thoughts for our waning tropical season. I’m sure my own opinions will vary by the end of the day…
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jmk818
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Here is something interesting, all the TV stations here in the Northeast are predicting a windy rainstorm, a "ocean storm" for Friday thru Sunday. What are they talking about. In winter sure, we get the nor-easters all the time, however I see nothing convective in the western atlantic or caribbean sea that looks to be drifting this way, nor is the commenting on anything to be a threat in their outlooks. What do these metrologists know that very few are here talking about? (is it the 25N 68W feature - looks like not much of anything to me)
Justin
Edited by jmk818 (Sun Oct 02 2005 05:58 PM)
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Magic Hat
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I'm sure you all have heard the discussion about storm cycles versus global warming trying to explain this year's activity. (if this is considered off topic, please delete it and accept my apology.) Here are some numbers I found: In 1887 we had 19 storms, in 1933 we had 21, and in 1990 we had 14. Normally one could expect to see between 5 and 11 storms per year. One year there was only one storm! However, starting in 1995, here are the number of storms by year: 19,13,8,14,12,15,15,12,16,15, and 20 so far this year. I just counted the number of storms, not if they hit land.
I didn't try to log the average strength by year, but it sure seemed to my untrained eye that we are getting more stronger storms. While we are waiting for all these blobs out there to either develop (or hopefully die), want to discuss your theories? I believe better equipment may account for some of the increase. On the other hand, didn't this site start about the same time the storms increased? Better communication? It certainly proves that this site is a Godsend for us near the coast.
What is causing this increase? Are underwater volcanoes warming the seas?(husband's theory) Is it a cycle? Solar flares? Hubby says there is a definate increase in water vapor in the atmosphere because of ocean warming. Why?
Lu
the record gets less reliable as you go back so we're probably missing some parts of active seasons that would supersede this one (currently 18/9/5). the whole climate change thing is a lot more complicated. human actions are very likely contributing to greenhouse warming... C02 in the atmosphere primarily. all it really does is more effectively trap longwave radiation the earth emits. the climate is REALLY complicated, though... if you want a primer in what may be going on, read a book by Richard Alley (a veteran Penn State climate guy) called The Two Mile Time Machine. the last few chapters especially... which are about what was apparent in cores drilled out of the Greenland ice sheet. he could have written a bunch of technical crap like i usually end up doing, but instead it's written on a not-so-tough level with lots of explanation. i guess because a lot of what you see reported is short sited BS and he wanted a quasi-layman book to get the word out without the media spin. we live in a stable climate time, but ice ages and dramatic climate shifts within just a few years have happened many times in the past. it really puts the little changes we see today in perspective. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Oct 02 2005 08:58 PM)
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Margie
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Quote:
I'm sure you all have heard the discussion about storm cycles versus global warming trying to explain this year's activity. Here are some numbers I found: In 1887 we had 19 storms, in 1933 we had 21, and in 1990 we had 14. Normally one could expect to see between 5 and 11 storms per year. One year there was only one storm! However, starting in 1995, here are the number of storms by year: 19, 13, 8, 14, 12, 15, 15, 12, 16, 15, and 20 so far this year. I just counted the number of storms, not if they hit land.
I didn't try to log the average strength by year, but it sure seemed to my untrained eye that we are getting more stronger storms.
What is causing this increase?
Well I think that you answered your own question...what is causing the increase is that we are in an active cycle.
There are many, many years since 1887 when a very large number of storms occured, and a very large active cycle in mid-century. Also since we did not have satellites or reliable ways of identifying fish spinners in the early part of the century, then don't compare apples and oranges in your numbers (if you're going to count storms that don't hit land, remember that the numbers from the earlier years will be missing storms that were not documented).
Now if you are seriously going to do an analysis, then don't make statements that are not verified by statistics, such as "to my untrained eye we are getting more stronger (sic) storms." If you do an analysis of all the data, you'll find that is not the case; there are many records of major hurricanes in previous years. Collective memory is short and fairly unreliable; just because the last two seasons have been busy doesn't mean that they represent a divergent statistic.
There is one thing that has changed dramatically and it is not hurricanes. It is the number of people who live on coastlines, and remember that this includes the northeast (strong hurricanes have hit there; if one hits there again this season or next, again, it will not be anything new).
--want to move these two posts to the other forum where I started a thread on this topic?--
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Ryan
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i do not think TS Stan will curve northward at all, if anythign i think it'll take a slighty south western track into Mexico. Also, i think this system will just make it to cat. 1 strength before landfall, shouldn't be to bad of a storm, other than possible flooding. and for the ..."as for other basin activity" part of this subject..there really is none..TD19 withh weaken out at sea do to strong shear. I think that something as in the way of Tammy will take place sometime in the next 1-2 weeks, there are some systems in Africa that could pull off the coast and develope, to early to say.
One final thing, HF, whats goin on witht he coastal storm developing, do you still believe it will take place, if not why not if not what happened to change this?
Thanks, Ryan 
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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Big Red Machine
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I guess you could say the 00Z is... thought provoking.
Criss crosses our little Bahama buddy across Florida, meanders through the central Gulf, strengthens it, and then takes it back across the peninsula in 6 days.
Meanwhile... back east... it forms two more potential cyclones. Meanwhile... up north... it brews up something up. I don't think that we'll see quite all that activity (or perhaps I should make that I HOPE we don't have it). This would mean the end of the alphabet by next Sunday. (Hello Alpha?) But the has been hinting at the potential for developments for a while now.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/fp1_144.shtml
00z has a similar, interesting take on the system. It shows something I have NEVER seen before. A loop by a tropical system around the ENTIRE Gulf.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation
Should be a VERY interesting week.
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Storm Hunter
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wow... the cmc 2005100300 , it's kinda funny and sad looking... watch the loop... i know its just one model and things change.... but look how it brings something into the EGOM.... near tampa and then sends it west towards NO, almost like a tease, then keeps sending it towards the west towards tx as another tease for the victims and then... it's like well time to head south of the border....but then stalls in BOC or SW GOM and begins to head back to the NE..... weird loop....i hope nothing like this happens... it would just be wrong.....and weird....It's been a bad season... we just don't need anything else... but looking at the other models... almost sure well have something in EGOM or off SE coast by late week...thurs-fri....
"a counterclockwise loop system in GOM"...... How would you describe the 2005 season at the end of November?
**just looked at the ukm 2005100300 and it shows almost the same thing as the 00Z ..... i hope there wrong....but they may be on to something!
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Oct 03 2005 05:37 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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expecting vortex for stan shortly.....
URNT11 KNHC 030520
97779 04504 21212 90518 15200 11029 17178 /2474
RMK AF304 0420A STAN OB 06
Also... saw the NOAA(43RF) P-3 Instrument Status Report on friday had:
Ready to go. Early morning work tomorrow (sat) means the aircraft will not be available for flight until 11am. Aircraft will enter SIDLAM next Monday and will be grounded for several months. 
not sure what SIDLAM is, and if it's still a go for monday.....that would mean only one P-3 for this week and
NRL plane, last i saw (friday) might have a landing gear problem...."Landing gear inspection required sometime on Friday. If inspection uncovers problems aircraft may be grounded for several days. Of remaining flight hours, 12 required for de-installation work in Boulder at the end of the project.".... and there appeared only 19.9hrs of flight time left before 50hr inspection..... (7hrs for flight time for a system)
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Oct 03 2005 05:49 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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URNT12 KNHC 030559
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/05:33:20Z
B. 20 deg 27 min N
090 deg 58 min W
C. 850 mb 1455 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 102 deg 033 kt
G. 024 deg 040 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 17 C/ 1525 m
J. 18 C/ 1524 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 135 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 0420A STAN OB 07
MAX FL WIND 43 KT N QUAD 04:28:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C, 5 / 8NM
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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emackl
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Good Morning. Does anyone have any ideas on the flare up north of PR? I'm not liking it. I'm ready for Nov 30th. Is that something that can develope and if so will it track west , north, or just do the ole recurve?
Thank You,
Jackie
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Beach
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Is there a closed circulation there?
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NewWatcher
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dunno, but we have another invest per the navy site 91L is up.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Ron Basso
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There is a new investigation up for the disturbance near the Bahamas - 92 L. Jackie, the disturbance east of the Bahamas is a tropical wave with at least a mid-level circulation within it. The forecasts gradually favorable condtions for development over the next two days. A large high pressure system to the north of the system will steer it generally west over the next 2-3 days. The model predicts development of a tropical cyclone prior to it moving across the S FL peninsula while the and other global models keep it an open wave. However, once it reaches the SE GOM, nearly all the global models develop it into a closed circulation. The system will likely meander in the GOM perhaps reaching the central GOM before being picked up by a deepening east coast trough and cold front progged to dive SE into the northern GOM this weekend, causing it to be steered back toward the FL peninsula. While the details are still not in focus, this one definitely bears watching as Gulf temps are still plenty warm for development.
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RJB
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