Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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to my eye.... 92L (invest) may have reformed more to the west... or there may be two spins... i follow the one off of miami... but then i catch what i think is something new on the west side of the tip of florida.... just north of Key west.. i see what looks like a rotation in the lower clouds.... i am currently looking at obs to see what the surface reports are in that area.... it looks like there is two rotation areas at the surface on floater #2 sat... and BOTH are weak.... one thing is for sure to me.... FLORIDA is about to get soaked! (lots of rain)
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Oct 04 2005 09:12 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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From the latest :
A SHARP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY BUT THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
... A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SPREADING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TOMORROW. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE FOR INFORMATION ON POSSIBLE LOCAL HAZARDS...
INCLUDING FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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I also noted some weak cyclonic turning in the area of the Keys and the pressures are low in that area, but that does not seem to be the main feature of interest right now. The shear is quite high in that area right now.
I wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of low try to spin up further east, closer to the flare up of convection in the NW Bahamas. Based on the convective pattern, there seems to be a pocket of upper-level divergence and lower shear in that area.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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You can now see the mountainous terrain of Mexico cutting into Stan's circulation on the visual and wv sat images. I saw this with Emily and thought it was neat...looks like someone sticking their hand up under a tablecloth that's being pulled along. If you need a little diversion (hey, it is 4:30pm) check it out.
Also, huge blooms of convection on the outflow both across the Yucatan and on the west coast of Mexico.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Tue Oct 04 2005 09:41 PM)
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Poor HPC, they seem as confused as the rest of us...LOL:
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER DAY HAS DONE LITTLE TO IMPROVE THE CONFIDENCE OF THE FCST. EVOLUTION OF THE FEATURE INITIALLY NEAR THE BAHAMAS
REMAINS IN DOUBT... WITH SOME GUIDANCE HINTING THAT A PORTION OF
THIS FEATURE MAY BREAK OFF AND SUPPORT A FRONTAL WAVE THAT TRACKS
NEAR THE EAST COAST BY FRI-SAT... WITH REMAINING ENERGY HEADING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO SUPPORT ANOTHER SFC LOW WHICH COULD
MEANDER OVER THE SERN GULF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD OR BE PICKED
UP THE THE SFC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD... THE 00Z IS ON ITS OWN WITH THE EXTENT TO WHICH IT
PUSHES HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE EXTREME SE... WITH OTHER MDLS
KEEPING LOWER SFC PRESSURES ALONG THE SE COAST.
Our house was to be painted tomorrow. Looks like next week for that.
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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
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Storm Hunter - maybe you (or someone/anyone) can answer this query. I'm pasting a snippet from the 2pm disco from my area - what is WSETA? Maybe a model only the forecasters get to use and not available to the general public? Curious that they say it does so well and I've never heard of it. 
GIVEN HOW WELL THE TROPICAL WSETA DID WITH THE LAST FEW STORMS IN
THIS GENESIS AREA...STILL DO NOT WANT TO GO CATEGORICAL WITH RAIN
CHANCES ON OUR SIDE OF THE STATE. SHUD THE LOW STAY OVER ON THE EAST
COAST...RAIN BANDS WILL DRY OUT AS THEY PUSH ACROSS THE STATE AND
ALL WE WILL GET IS SOME GUSTY SHOWERS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE HAD THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IF THE AND SOLN VERIFY...WE WILL BE IN
FOR A RAINY REST OF THE WEEK...WHILE DEALING WITH A POTENTIAL
HYBRID LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
Here's the link if you care to read the whole thing.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=TBWAFDTBW&version=0
p.s. got our first "squall" a while ago. interesing - very blowy. > 
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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I found some things for it on the web...tried "WSETA model" in google. It is an model.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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I beleive the ETA model has been renamed to the model. I may be wrong but I beleive I read it somewhere else. If I find it I will post it.
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sara33
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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Hi,
Can someone please give the coordinates for 92L..Because what I thought was 92L does not look like it will make it to the GOM without crossing the state first.
Thanks in advance,
Chrisitine
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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
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Thanks Margie! 
I didn't think to do that. duh! Too many things going on in my life right now.
Looks like everything is being pulled to the north from 92L. Wonder if he was right about the east coast hugging thing?
Well, I wished for rain - we only got a little so far. I have to drive quite a ways on Thursday for a meeting - hope the weather isn't too bad. I'm sure it will be interesting the next few days.
BTW - the local met said that the rain chance will go down to 20/30 percent on Monday? and that changes more often than my moods lately.  (don't go there guys) 
Hope no one has flooding from this.
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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Should be somewhere around 24.8N 78.7W according the the navy site.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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WSETA...Wind shear version of the ETA???
I managed to catch Dr Lyons Trop Update about 90 minutes ago.
While all eyes are on the tropical wave positioned off of the FL East Coast. He pointed out that there is a middle to upper level Low over the NE GOM, near Cedar Key. This Low is expected to merge/ mingle/ mix, with the tropical wave. The Low is easily seen on current Water Vapor imagery.
Dr Lyons also pointed out that a cool front moving through the TX OK Panhandle area, should pickup the Low and move it NE...inland.
The cool front that Dr Lyons referred to is presently stirring up quite a bit of convection in the Plains.
The remnants of E Pac Hurricane Otis have moved into the SW Plains and are responsible for the very unusual, moist tropical air in place.
note:With the NE GOM Low's current proximity to the coast. And the premise (not promise) of the frontal passage picking up the Low. I, personally wouldn't give it any number higher than a 4 out of 10 for development.
But I'm not a MET, I haven't looked at the models in a few days or more...and I didn't stay at Holiday Inn Express last night.~danielw 
Edited by danielw (Tue Oct 04 2005 11:36 PM)
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sara33
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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Thanks
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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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In searching the web, I found the WS stands for "Work Station." Seems that this is a program available for local WFOs (I think Weather Forecasting Offices) to aid in local modelling. Quite frankly, the few things I read were way over this poor boy's head. Perhaps Clark or one of the other mets can elaborate.
Note to mods: Okay to move this to another forum site since it is off topic.
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jusforsean
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Broward County
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Could somebody please get this all straight for me. From what i can see, 92l is pounding us here in south florida thru the weekend as a tropical wave with little chance of it strengthing much.
next: Stan over Mexico, is it me or does it look like stan is going to be heading back this way???
last but not least whats with the disturbance over Puerto Rico>>
Anything else i am missing here??
thanks
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Currently a recipient of the lovely convection over the plains. Knew it was coming because we've had two weird days of muggy 80-degree weather (it'll be a high of 48 tomorrow I think). Drove through some serious rain just now, am home south of Mpls (on radar, where you see the two freeways meet in a V shape) with lots and lots of lightning, radar looks like a line coming through in just a couple minutes.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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looks like a the eastern side of the broad surface low is trying to tighten up in the midst of the northern bahamas near some deep convective bursts. that may be the system finally starting to focus. not sure yet, just eyeballing it. i've been agitating for something of the like for more than a week, so maybe i'm reading too much into it.
there's more of all this mess working over into the gulf. think the loopy low is overdone in that the upper low there would take time to transition.. if there is a low it'll be stuck next to it and weak. not sold on that ticket. more likely that another low pressure area will form in the leavings of stan, where there is some ridging aloft and plentiful convergence. stan itself is about halfway across mexico, on to sample the pacific.
don't disregard the area near puerto rico, either. there is some low level turning and a good bit of ridging aloft.
globals are all over the place, but mostly in agreement that we'll have one tropical system go up the east coast, and then another or two meandering near around the gulf/western atlantic. very active span we're in, that looks like it will spill over into next week.
of course maybe ralph is right and its just a bunch of rain. right.
HF 0024z05october
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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HankFrank, what are the odds that that ball of convection will go north. It looks to be making it's way in that direction. Is there something that will force it on a more westerly route or might we get lucky?
Thanks, Jackie
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
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Quote:
It also looks to be pretty flat here so Stan might go a bit longer than one would expect, maybe even make it to the other side.
Not quite right that one - I forgot to look on the west side where there's the huge Oaxaca mountain range going up to over 8000ft in places; more than enough to put a serious dent in Stan's progress....
Check the site for the latest.
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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i don't think it will take much to get a TS.... Wed. might be the day...
latest AT
RADAR DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS NOT FORMED YET WITHIN THE LARGE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA EASTWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OF THE LOWEST PRESSURE
WHICH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR A RAPID DEVELOPMENT BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM ON
WEDNESDAY. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TOMORROW. PLEASE CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION ON POSSIBLE LOCAL HAZARDS...INCLUDING FLOOD WATCHES OR
WARNINGS.
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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