Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: DeLand, Florida
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navy site just put up 93L.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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Fletch
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Any #'s on 93L yet?
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Looks like I posted under the old thread this morning.
Well maybe shouldn't have been so quick to put out the 'last' advis on Stan because I can see rotation in one area of convection that has come off the coast, at about 16N 100W, and it appears that Stan still lives. It appears this is the piece that was the center of the UL circ as it came off the coast. But I could be wrong...
My post from earlier this am (looks like a new stew came of the convection off the Yucatan as well):
Good morning all. Uh oh, the large area of convection remaining over the Yucatan from Stan's strong feeder band that had reached into the Carribean, was not pulled into Mexico, and has quickly moved back into the warm waters of the Carribean south of Cozumel, as Stan dissipated and the remnants moved into the Pacific, and it looks like that low in the GOM could pull it up that direction, if it does not get sheared off into the Carribean south of Cuba -- or in general looks like some of Stan's remnents, or the large amt of energy still in the area, whatever you call it, could move that dir. Ick.
The other area of Stan that had been producing strong convection off Mex SW Pacific coast (fed by the energy of the remnants as they move offshore?) is still going strong.
Tammy is what she is, but it looks like, again, potential for something in the GOM, doesn't it? So many people along MS Gulf Coast still living under a tarp that they're holding up with debris they nailed tog...even the FEMA trailer city that will be complete 8-12 months from now, if it was there today, wouldn't be much shelter from another hurricane.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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ZooKeeper
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Live in Chiefland & work in Ce...
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2004 - Bonnie, Jeanne and all came through sections of North Florida. Was there a particular area that you were looking for?
secondary hits is what they were, but then again they probably counted for more. as far as atlantic side systems impacting directly, it's been slim pickings throughout the 20th century. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Oct 05 2005 05:14 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Buoy 42056 located at 19.9N, 85.0 W recently had the winds shift from the south to the west and increase to 23 knots sustained. This either indicates that there is a surface low located somewhere to its north near the Yucutan channel, or that the deep convection in that area is in the form of a squall line that is producing some gusty outflow winds along its leading flank. Considering the increase in wind speed, the rise in pressure, and the apparent circulation over the Yucutan is still well to the west, the squall line scenario seems more likely. If that is the case, it would not be surprising to see that area of convection weaken or even puff out at some point. Whether or not the circulation still over the Yucutan can redevelop convection and wrap it around the center will determine if this thing develops or not.
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Brad in Miami
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Below are the tropical model runs for 93L:
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20051005 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051005 1200 051006 0000 051006 1200 051007 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.0N 87.0W 21.3N 86.1W 22.8N 85.1W 24.6N 84.4W
BAMM 20.0N 87.0W 21.3N 86.2W 22.7N 85.2W 24.4N 84.1W
A98E 20.0N 87.0W 20.8N 86.3W 22.3N 85.1W 24.1N 84.0W
LBAR 20.0N 87.0W 21.1N 86.5W 22.4N 86.2W 24.3N 85.9W
SHIP 20KTS 29KTS 38KTS 48KTS
DSHP 20KTS 29KTS 38KTS 48KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051007 1200 051008 1200 051009 1200 051010 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.8N 83.9W 32.3N 79.2W 37.5N 70.6W 39.9N 64.0W
BAMM 26.7N 83.1W 31.6N 77.7W 34.6N 70.8W 35.0N 67.6W
A98E 26.5N 83.0W 30.7N 80.9W 33.9N 75.5W 34.8N 72.2W
LBAR 26.3N 86.7W 29.7N 85.3W 32.1N 80.6W 32.6N 76.8W
SHIP 56KTS 65KTS 66KTS 60KTS
DSHP 56KTS 47KTS 47KTS 42KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.0N LONCUR = 87.0W DIRCUR = 50DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 19.4N LONM12 = 87.7W DIRM12 = 70DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 19.2N LONM24 = 88.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
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sara33
Weather Guru
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Loc: St. Pete,
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Navy just posted 94L as well, anyone know where that may be? WOW busy, busy, busy!
Thanks, 
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Beaumont, TX
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Wow! Looks like we have a good chance of using up all of the names. I noticed on satellite TS Tammy looked like she was
getting better organized. One question...we have a tree that was twisted by . Looks more like tornado
damage. Some of the damage to the area looks like small
tornadoes hit. Is it possible a number of small tornadoes touched down and were not recorded?
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Here is a link to a graphical representation of the forecast track of the tropical models listed in the SHIPS output above:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_93.gif
Disregard the UKMET track... that seems to be an earlier run for 92L.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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94L is probably the area way out in the Atlantic mentioned in the latest . Here is what the had to say about 93L and the presumed 94L:
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND EAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED
AT THIS TIME...BUT SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED WITH A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1700 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.
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sara33
Weather Guru
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Loc: St. Pete,
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Thanks for the help! 
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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And I thought it was supposed to be quiet for a few weeks. Tammy sure got her act together. Question. We have a tree
that looks twisted, like what a tornadoe would do. Could have had little tornadoes come down as she passed over us and
these weren't recorded? Looks like the whole list of names may be used this season, or certainly close to it. How many times
in the past have they used up all of the names?
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Big Kahuna
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Loc: DeLand, Florida
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94L is at 7.5N/ 35W
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-wv-loop.html
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indianapolis
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Quote:
Wow! Looks like we have a good chance of using up all of the names. I noticed on satellite TS Tammy looked like she was
getting better organized. One question...we have a tree that was twisted by . Looks more like tornado
damage. Some of the damage to the area looks like small
tornadoes hit. Is it possible a number of small tornadoes touched down and were not recorded?
Tornado's? You bettcha! We had several not recorded during last years canes. You could tell it was tornados by the path of damage.
Jackie
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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Quote:
Question. We have a tree
that looks twisted, like what a tornadoe would do. Could have had little tornadoes come down as she passed over us and
these weren't recorded?
Yeah, little tornadoes are pretty common in the eyewall and immediately near it, and due to the density of the convection in that immediate area they are often missed in the "official recording".
I had a friend's home that suffered a roof-lifting event (which did severe damage to the house) during - there was no recorded tornado at that location, but the damage to the roof and in her yard was definitely tornadic in nature.
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Wow, it's that far south?
That suprises me, I was wondering if it might have been the ULL around 23N 50W.
The season will end... really...
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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It is certainly possible to get tornado or tornado-like damage near the eyewall. The effect of very strong winds passing over rough terrain and around buildings can generate short-lived swirls that cause a tornado-like damage pattern, though the features in question may not have the vertical depth to be truly classified as tornados.
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crpeavley
Weather Watcher
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Whats the best guess where the highest sustained winds will be felt from Tammy, when/if she makes landfall? Might make a trip if its worth it, at least 50mph.
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CoalCracker
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Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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I've been watching the models closely the last couple of days, and the has persistently spun up a system near the Yucatan/Western Cuba and sent it into the west coast of Florida between Tampa and Everglades City with intensification happening rapidly offshore before making landfall. Looks like I might need to dust off the storm panels and keep my bag of wing nuts handy because whatever happens will occur pretty quickly. 56 days to go until 1 December but who's counting.
Just got a quick glimpse of the 12Z models on the site which thankfully depicts a weaker system than previoiusly advertised.
Edited by CoalCracker (Wed Oct 05 2005 04:22 PM)
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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I am *really* not liking 93L and what it means for us on the west coast. I'm at work right now and it's hard to look things up...can anyone tell if there is a recon scheduled to check out this invest? Thanks!
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