Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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just a quick post - FNMOC now have the system between Bermuda and the Caribbean up as 22L. expect advisories to be initiated at 1500z.
It will be a fish-spinner/name-user. A month and a half plus left in the season, and we'll be down to .
Clouds have started to pick up on the northwest side of the remnants of Tammy... which now appears to be moving eastward across the north GOM... low should move inland north of Tampa without any formation, though.
Well on second thought.... Bermuda has issued a tropical storm watch... and the computer model on WU has it move WNW to NW and approaching the east coast in several days before turning NE out to sea.... so it MIGHT not be a fish spinner after all.
Subtropical storms have only been named for the last few years (I forget exactly when they started naming them)... but this could become tropical anyway.
they started naming them around 2002... believe gustav that year was the first. before that it was numbers but more often classification at post analysis (the s would mention a nontropical low that might acquire tropical characteristics for a few days but the would never issue advisories). -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Oct 08 2005 05:25 PM)
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Margie
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NHC has subtropical depression 22 up on its home page.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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dave foster
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Does anyone else think that 22L is looking less impressive now than it did 3 hours ago?
Might it be fizzling out before it's had a chance to get started...
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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Rich B
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well satellite imagery shows that the system between the Azores and the Canaries really is getting its act together. it even looks better organised than STD22, with a well defined convective band in both the north and south semicircles. given that it is slow moving it could develop further. good to see now paying attention to it in the latest two - and suggesting it too could be classified as another subtropical system if the organization continues.
Regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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HanKFranK
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subtrop 22 is taking southeasterly shear... coincident with its direction of travel. the strong upper low to the south is shearing it from the east, in spite of its westward track... which suggests that it isn't being steered by/strongly associated with the upper trough anymore. up ahead on its track as it pulls away from the upper low, and ridging to the north controls its movement.. it should encounter modestly favorable conditions. SSTs on its forecast track wouldn't support more than a tropical storm or weak hurricane under normal circumstances... the official looks about right there. that's assuming that the convective area to the east doesn't start competing with 22 and robbing all of its inflow... in which case the system would sputter westward and not really develop as per many of the models.
the upper low north of puerto rico has very strong drill-down potential, since it isn't moving quickly and already has turning at the surface.. and is over warm waters with a ridge to the north. don't be surprised if the upper low becomes the hurricane that several of the forecast models have originating around it.
well, i'll call it 96L... the powerful subtropical cyclone a few hundred miles west of morocco. the system has slowed down and is over fairly cool waters, so has probably peaked... as the environment around it is surely moderating and it doesn't have the same kind of differential to maintain the intensity it had. it may perk up a little as it gets drawn up into a baroclinic zone towards the british isles early next week... but i don't think its appearance will improve anymore so the will probably not operationally classify it. at least they added it to the . post analysis will be iffy as well, as it has existed beyond the periphery of the usual source region for tropical cyclones, and has obvious baroclinic origin. interesting system nonetheless.
not to forget 94L, but it is going to struggle. when it had a good vertical environment it sort of dawdled.. now it is under more substantial shear. there is enough upstream diffluence to support some convection as it continues wnw, but systems like this don't typically make it. it may end up entrained by the developing deep-layer complex ahead of it.
HF 1736z08october
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Oct 08 2005 05:38 PM)
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dave foster
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I've been watching 22L all day now. What I have noticed is the dry airstream to the north of 22L
slowly pushing west and south and curling around 22L. If it continues to do so for the next
6 to 10 hours I can see it curling up to the northeast around the back of 22L causing it to
deepen and take up a more westerly or south-westerly direction.
I know what the predictions are for 22L, and I also know that what I am saying flies in the face of the
official line. Being new to this I would be pleased if any of the more experienced storm trackers in the
forum would care to comment, even if it's only to call me crazy or any other choice phrase.
I am still trying to gain an impression of what makes these storms tick, how they are formed and what
drives them. I would really appreciate any feedback whatsoever if it helps me to get on the right track
and provides me with the insight I am looking for.
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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HanKFranK
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96L has a tropical appearance, within the larger deep-layer trough environment. that's one of the clearest cases for a subtropical storm that i've ever seen. has to be scratching their head over what to do with it because it's way the hell east of where systems are usually trackable. of course back in 1998 nicole did come out of that general area.. perhaps it'll get the nod at 11. clark would know how it looks on phase-analysis... hope he shows up this evening.
subtd 22 is still strongly sheared out of the east. flow continue to push it west for the early part of the period... if it goes too far it'll have to content with the northerly shear zone upstream of it's location. so far it hasn't gone quite north enough to take advantage of the ridging/good outflow environment to the north, but is remaining over SSTs marginal to support a hurricane. a half day's abatement of shear would allow this storm to get going, but as of now it's still questionable whether it gets named, as it hasn't escaped the shear that started on it this morning.
94L has a good outflow environment to its east, but is struggling where it is. likelihood of near term development is low, but may improve in the long-run if it can remain coherent.
don't think the globals have the system originating early in the week near the greater antilles right. it may be a drill down or a storm that forms under the ridging near the bahamas upstream of the trough. or it could be that the conflicting forces allow nothing to go. there are enough models swinging a deep tropical low northward by bermuda towards cape cod to be a interested, but the evolution still doesn't look right.
HF 0121z09october
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sara33
Weather Guru
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Loc: St. Pete,
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96L? Can someone please give the coordinates..I did not see it on the Navy site yet. Thanks
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Clark
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The disturbance between the Azores and the Canaries is showing up as very weakly symmetric but shallow warm core in the and with ambiguous symmetry and on the border between deep cold core and shallow warm core on the UKMET and . (Finally got everything fixed...think the people probably fired off an e-mail to get it done because they needed it!) Trends have been more subtropical than cold-core, but with little further warm core development from here. Will be an interesting case -- they are generally lax to name/classify those systems, but this is a pretty clear-cut case (IMO) for it. We'll see at 11 or 5.
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NONAME
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The Latest Statelite for 96L On FNMOC is very impressive if i didn't know any better i'd say it was a hurricane. haha But should classify it. There is no dought it is a ST Cyclone an a strong one at that.
web page
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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.
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sara33
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Thanks for the info Clark! Now.. I'm new to this so what exactly is the difference between a subtropical system and a tropical system??Thanks Guys! Just trying to learn.
Christine  ... 
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Quote:
Thanks for the info Clark! Now.. I'm new to this so what exactly is the difference between a subtropical system and a tropical system??Thanks Guys! Just trying to learn.
Christine ...
Subtropical tend to have colder cores with the max winds located well from the center of circulation. Tropical is a warm core with the max winds located in a tight core.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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NONAME
Weather Guru
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Here is what Has to say about ST Cyclones
Subtropical Cyclone:
A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and cyclones.
The most common type is an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.
A second type of subtropical cyclone is a mesoscale low originating in or near a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, with radius of maximum sustained winds generally less than 30 miles. The entire circulation may initially have a diameter of less than 100 miles. These generally short-lived systems may be either cold core or warm core.
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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.
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sara33
Weather Guru
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Thanks everyone! So much to learn...I LOVE this board! 
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NONAME
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Well 12 hours is short lived That was The worst cyclone I have ever seen even worse that Lee This year.
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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.
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Clark
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Not sure why this isn't at least a ST storm. QuikSCAT shows the maximum winds very near the center of circulation (with some strong winds also in the outer reaches of the very broad cyclonic environment), the microwave passes show a very well-defined inner-core -- a small one, but well-defined nonetheless. Eye-like feature may be a convective artifact, but the fact that it is showing up on all of the passes at all levels lends some credence to the idea that it is an actual feature.
This one doesn't get classified if the gets political on us and doesn't want to use up another name. It won't make it to Spain as a classified storm, but it should be one now. We'll see what happens at 5 & 11am.
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Rich B
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Agreed Clark, 96L should be a classified system. It certainly seems to meet the criteria at least for ST classification. It has again been given TNumbers of ST3.0/ST3.0 at 0600z this morning from SSD. It has consistently been given these TNumbers for at least the past 48 hours, numbers which shortlived STD22 didnt even attain. The convective structure remains well organised and intact with good convective banding features. The core remains relatively clear. And the winds are strong - potentially making it a ST Storm. Of course, the proximity to Spain and the Canary Islands probably are its inhibiting factors to classification  We may see this go unclassified, but given the current and recent data on this system, it might have a shot at classification in the post season analysis.
Regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Agreed Clark, 96L should be a classified system. It certainly seems to meet the criteria at least for ST classification. It has again been given TNumbers of ST3.0/ST3.0 at 0600z this morning from SSD. It has consistently been given these TNumbers for at least the past 48 hours, numbers which shortlived STD22 didnt even attain. The convective structure remains well organised and intact with good convective banding features. The core remains relatively clear. And the winds are strong - potentially making it a ST Storm. Of course, the proximity to Spain and the Canary Islands probably are its inhibiting factors to classification We may see this go unclassified, but given the current and recent data on this system, it might have a shot at classification in the post season analysis.
Regards
The blasted thing has an EYE for crissake! (looking at loop)... yet the says it is non-tropical, and over cold water. How can anyone have much faith in the forecasts when they ignore a hurricane (or at least a strong tropical storm), saying it is non-tropical?
Update: Dr. Lyons just called it a "subtropical" system and said "best I can estimate winds are about 30-35 mph".... the cloud tops don't look impressive on the colorized IR, either. Still, it should be classified if the short-lived subtropical low near Bermuda was classified!
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Oct 09 2005 11:54 AM)
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HCW
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Tropical Storm Vince now Winds 50mph
TROPICAL STORM VINCE (AL232005) ON 20051009 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051009 1200 051010 0000 051010 1200 051011 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.8N 19.3W 34.7N 17.6W 36.0N 14.5W 37.9N 10.2W
BAMM 33.8N 19.3W 34.8N 17.7W 36.2N 14.8W 38.4N 11.1W
A98E 33.8N 19.3W 34.0N 18.4W 34.4N 16.2W 35.8N 12.8W
LBAR 33.8N 19.3W 34.9N 17.5W 36.5N 14.9W 38.0N 11.5W
SHIP 45KTS 45KTS 46KTS 47KTS
DSHP 45KTS 45KTS 46KTS 47KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051011 1200 051012 1200 051013 1200 051014 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 40.0N 5.7W 42.4N 2.9E 44.6N 8.1E 46.0N 12.3E
BAMM 41.0N 7.3W 46.5N .2W 51.9N 2.7E 52.3N 3.7E
A98E 36.7N 9.0W 33.4N 2.8W 34.4N 2.0E 42.2N 10.4E
LBAR 38.8N 7.5W 38.1N 1.1W 38.2N 3.4E 41.3N 3.2E
SHIP 48KTS 50KTS 52KTS 48KTS
DSHP 35KTS 30KTS 30KTS 30KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 33.8N LONCUR = 19.3W DIRCUR = 45DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 33.2N LONM12 = 20.0W DIRM12 = 54DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 33.0N LONM24 = 20.3W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM
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damejune2
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Maybe i am missing something, but i don't think there is a storm named Vince. Myabe there should be, but as of now i haven't seen it.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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