MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Just an update to state that it is very quiet in the Atlantic right now, just a row of clouds from Puerto Rico north through the Atlantic, with nothing imminent to develop out of that.
We'll be watching for changes.
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Mike. Thanks for nice words and I hope they hold out for the remainder ...of 2005.
Everyone needs a break.
Here are a few excerpts from the 8:05 PM EDT Tropical Weather Discussion.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/122338.shtml?
...FAR EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 20W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES FROM METEOSAT-8 PORTRAY A LOW-AMPLITUDE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ...AND A CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP IN THE VICINITY JUSTIFIES THIS POSITION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE WAVELENGTH BETWEEN THE ATLC TROPICAL WAVES HAS SHORTENED CONSIDERABLY...AND THE NEXT WAVE IS ONLY ABOUT 500 NM TO THE W OF THIS WAVE...
...A SIGNIFICANT
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE
GREATEST LOW-LEVEL TURNING...FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 49W-55W...
CARIBBEAN...edited~danielw
THE MAIN PROBLEM OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAVY RAIN PLAGUING PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. FORTUNATELY A GOOD PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE REMAINED OVER WATER...BUT THE COPIOUS PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS BEEN ADVECTED OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HAS CAUSED PROLIFIC RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND FLOODING PROBLEMS. RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER 11 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS ESPECIALLY ON THE S SIDE OF PUERTO RICO WHERE THE SWLY FLOW IS IMPINGING ON THE MOUNTAINS.
the Caribbean section of the TWD is a must read, if you are in the Greater Antilles...including Jamaica and Grand Cayman. Extensive discussion on the System presently over the Area. Use the link below, or scroll to the top of this post.~danielw
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/122338.shtml?
Edited by danielw (Thu Oct 13 2005 12:14 AM)
|
Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
|
|
Again , watch the western Caribbean for development next week. several of the ensembles and a few of the are showing development south of Cuba heading toward the Florida peninsula/Eastern GOM, and a few over the Bahamas. The 12Z EC also shows a closed low in the western Caribbean next week. Something's up with that, so as we get closer to next week, we'll see if more globals join in. Yes, JB mentioned this on his LR forecast, but I think he's looking at the ridging in the north Atlantic and lower pressures in the SW Atlantic....I'm sure he peeked at the ensembles as well. CHeers!
|
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 318
|
|
Will be watching it for development. Still think we may have an Alpha before the season is over with.
|
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
|
|
I know that this is too early to say what that little blob is near the Yucatan. But I do know that I have a new roof, a new air conditioning system, the insurance did not pay for either one, (last years terror) And, my son just put a new roof on his house yesterday. All that is left to produce a hurricane at this point is for us to wash our cars.
Not a very scientific comment but this is October and the trick or treat season is just starting.
--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
|
LisaA
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 9
Loc: Melbourne FL
|
|
Oh no... when you guys say mostly quiet in the tropics all heck usually breaks out. I'm just ready for a humidity break and for the wave height and rips to chill out - I'm trying to learn how to surf.
--------------------
Moved to FL 7/04, unpacked and honkered down. Worth it to be in paradise!
|
B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 331
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
|
|
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE REPOSITIONED ALONG 27W/28W S OF 14N MOVING
W 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS GOTTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER-DEFINED
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ON THE
N AND E SIDE. THERE IS EVEN SOME EVIDENCE OF A BROAD LOW
FORMING NEAR 10N. SOME INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SEEMS POSSIBLE
WITH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NOT ALL THAT UNFAVORABLE... THOUGH IT IS
GETTING LATE TO HAVE SOMETHING FORM IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN
24W-31W.
Check this out. If this system did get going, I wonder if it could make it over to our side of the Atlantic as a storm. It`s been a weird year so far, anything could happen........Maybe one of the METS can fill us in on any possibilities......Weatherchef
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
a few comments:
trouble continues in the northeast. another significant low has formed in the tropical moisture train from the caribbean to bermuda to new england--this one is moving towards the new jersey coast and should cross tomorrow morning. another inch to few inches of rain probably involved with this one, and more on the way. the upper low that is funneling it all around is west of bermuda now... another impulse is coming up east of bermuda and should turn northwest as it rounds it... this is likely the feature that should deepen into the large gale center depicted moving into the gulf of maine/canadian maritimes over the weekend.
models still sketchy about caribbean development though the overall pattern will be modestly supportive once the upper trough loses its influence. there is still a large area of turning under enough shear to cap it southeast of jamaica.. and another small low pressure that has formed in the windward passage and is now moving westward just south of eastern cuba. these features should persist and may try something when the shear pattern begins to slacken up.
east atlantic wave of note out in the cape verde region, but it's pretty much too late to spawn a system out there... and everything this year that has been a successful tropical cyclone has formed further west or not really deepened until west of 50-60w. if it were to organize rapidly it might have a brief life, but doubtful anything can get going.
there's actually a small disturbance of note in the eastpac near 10/100. if this were to develop it would agitate the atlantic shear pattern and probably signal more atlantic activity... worth note for that reason even though state dictates not much should happen for the next 2 weeks or so.
HF 2300z13october
|
Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
|
|
After losing the closed low over the western Caribbean yesterday, the 12Z Euro seems to be getting a bit more bullish on developmentnext week, showing a deepening low just to the south of west central Cuba. and ensembles have more members jumping on to varying degrees. Definitely something to watch for folks in the E. GOM and east coast later next week. Heavy rains in Melbourne FL today. Don't need anymore right now. Cheers!!
|
dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
|
|
And here I was, watching the forum for the last couple of days thinking we'd seen an abrupt end to the season. No such luck eh?
BTW, for those of you that downloaded my Google Earth tracking files and had no sucess, I'm pleased to say that I have corrected the error ( Hurricane Stan only for the moment ) and that the latest archive should now work correctly.
Sorry for the mistake 
--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
|
La Nimo
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 42
Loc: st. pete beach
|
|
This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
Don't make comments like this, La Nimo. Your attitude is not acceptable. -HF
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Oct 15 2005 12:33 PM)
|
damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
|
|
Deleted by damejune2
--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
Edited by damejune2 (Fri Oct 14 2005 01:44 AM)
|
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 576
|
|
We mustn't forget...
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE... ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD LOW SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM... IS LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Can we get this tropical season to bat the cycle? I think all we need is a Cape Verde storm to have had this season officially prolific in all sectors. Vince only frosts the amazement - though I like the "cool core hurricane" analogy...
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Quote:
I think all we need is a Cape Verde storm to have had this season officially prolific in all sectors.
We already have.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
|
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 576
|
|
This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Quote:
when and where?
Well, Emily, and even though formed just inside the Carribean, wondering if can also be considered a Cape Verde storm.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
|
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 576
|
|
Yeah, you know - that brings up a good question... Unless the any given tropical cyclone in question develops off the tail end of a frontal drape, or perhaps even rarer, an upper level low that bores its way to the surface and transitions, they all come off of waves from Africa. Which therein one must ask, 'aren't they all Cape Verde'.
May be some philosophy to iron out there - i don't know - but I think for the point at hand, the systems that did develop out there, weren't they really pretty weak before getting to 50W?? When I think of a "solid Cape Verde" storm, I want to harken to 2004; i.e., Isabel and the like - yeah know? Those were definitely intense and highly evolved way the heck out there; more like they came off Africa and didn't waste any time. This year, if I amy quote Dr. Gray, "They've all been Bahama bombers"... I think there are others who feel as I do, that true-ish Cape Verde season this has not been. However, there have been systems that did evolve well enough E of of the Islands...
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Well a Cape Verde develops right off Cape Verde...technically...but also considered one if it develops somewhere in the Atlantic.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
|
Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 489
Loc:
|
|
Yikes...we're in the middle of the October upswing in activity and no posts today! Well, here's one...looks like the activity near Jamaica is picking up:
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/AOI0/latest_wv_loop.gif
--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
|
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
|
|
Buiy 42058 to the SE of that system near Jamaica reported sustained winds out of the SSW of around 20 knots last hour, but that station reported similar wind speeds aroundt this time yesterday as well. Considering that it does not even have an Invest classification yet, must not be overly concerned at this time, though there was a mention of a possible recon mission on Sunday in the recon POD. There is definitely a broad low pressure system down there, but it is tough to make out any well-defined LLC. If there is one, it appears to currently be over the island of Jamaica right now.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
