Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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this is out of jacksonville, Fl
235pm
.LONG TERM...CURRENT PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND IS REPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW OR
WEAK RIDGING. LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY
BY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. WILL INTRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR DISTURBANCE IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
For some reason i think we might know what sets up..... sounds like something could make it into eastern GOM...
hmm.....To me this would put Florida under the gun if it holds.... late next week.... wed-fri....
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Oct 15 2005 07:02 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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URNT11 KNHC 151902
97779 18554 70195 82400 58100 07017 56801 /4591
RMK AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 05
should be dropping in alt... they were at the outer bands on this report....expect vortex next
also some new strong storms flaring up..... now that center is away from island.... water is warm.... but alot warmer in to the north!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Oct 15 2005 07:11 PM)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Quote:
URNT11 KNHC 151902
97779 18554 70195 82400 58100 07017 56801 /4591
RMK AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 05
should be dropping in alt... they were at the outer bands on this report....expect vortex next
also some new strong storms flaring up..... now that center is away from island.... water is warm.... but alot warmer in to the north!
Sure is! I'm sure you must be aware of this but the unique underwater topography of that section of the Caribbean, where the open abyssal walls against the archipelago, is a trap zone for warm currents. As a result, perinnially that is one of the hottest areas of SST on the planet, and also can bost some of the deeper thermocline. Small by comparison to the western Pacific in terms of surface area, but it is quite deep.
I'd be real surprised if the vortex message didn't contain favorable status...
Edited by typhoon_tip (Sat Oct 15 2005 07:16 PM)
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Thunderbird12
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Loc: Oklahoma
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I don't think the 20% reduction from 950mb winds for max intensity is appropriate in this case, considering that the pressure drops to around 898mb in the 12Z and the eyewall pressure would be quite a bit lower than 950mb in such a system. Based on the pressure forecast (the lowest I've ever seen from the ), it is forecasting a cat 5 storm. Obviously, that doesn't mean it is going to happen, but we can safely say that the model thinks conditions will be favorable for intensification.
The latest SHIPS model only brings it up to around 80 knots.
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typhoon_tip
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Quote:
I don't think the 20% reduction from 950mb winds for max intensity is appropriate in this case, considering that the pressure drops to around 898mb in the 12Z and the eyewall pressure would be quite a bit lower than 950mb in such a system. Based on the pressure forecast (the lowest I've ever seen from the ), it is forecasting a cat 5 storm. Obviously, that doesn't mean it is going to happen, but we can safely say that the model thinks conditions will be favorable for intensification.
The latest SHIPS model only brings it up to around 80 knots.
True - good voice of reason... A compromise is certainly in order... One contention I have with all the models is that they don't seem to be initializing the system all that well (the rarely do when in infancy)... It may take a depthier presentation in the intialization for the physics to latch onto this... Could be that the barotropic nature of the may just be more effective in processing for a developmental curve under such restrictions. That said at risk of making myself sound biased toward a deeper system, but, there is a modeled U/A anti-cylone and a system that is slated to pass over (as said in an earlier assertion) SSTs that are phenomenal! That tends to draw one's thinking...
We'll see - but good points. I'd also add the ambient slp in the area isn't all that stellar high, so a system's pressure could be lower at a given wind velocity than say...Katrina, which was at the other end of the spectrum.
Edited by typhoon_tip (Sat Oct 15 2005 07:26 PM)
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Storm Hunter
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URNT11 KNHC 151922
97779 19184 70189 80500 03400 35016 25241 /0006
40115
RMK AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 07
vortex is got to be next...
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
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URNT11 KNHC 151934
97779 19304 70185 79900 03500 36020 25241 /0005
43615
RMK AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 08
starting to think there is not a well defined Low level center... must be weak or poor presentation on radar....
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
URNT11 KNHC 151934
97779 19304 70185 79900 03500 36020 25241 /0005
43615
RMK AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 08
starting to think there is not a well defined Low level center... must be weak or poor presentation on radar....
The visible satellite presentation is not a well defined as it was when the plane was well west of the LLC, in my opinion. Cloud tops have dispersed somewhat. We may see a "special tropical weather statement' before 5pm one way or the other, and the plane may stay out there looking for a LLC a bit more, but I suspect they may not find one right now.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Storm Hunter
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URNT11 KNHC 151951
97779 19454 70180 79300 03700 99005 23238 /0004
49905
RMK AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 09
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Rabbit
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Loc: Central Florida
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I do not think that this will develop today, if ever. It is not much different than several days ago in the sense that at the surface it does not seem to be closed off to the NW. I also do not see a very well defined circulation center, even at midlevels. IF anything forms, i expect it to go SW into Belize or Honduras, no more than 75-85 mph.
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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist
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Quote:
here's the "Climatological Areas of Origin and Typical Hurricane Tracks by Month" from the ..
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml
October shows storms are most likely climatologically anyway to form right near where this storm is now and head north and then northeast with the prevailing track right over S. FL and up into LI area.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/october.gif
Thanks for digging up that graphic:
So... the 's graphic indicates that a tropical cyclone forming where one seems to be forming now could approach Central America... but other than striking the Yucatan Peninsula (and maybe in the general vicinity of Cabo Gracias a Dios) the storm would be unlikely to make landfall until it was somewhere east of Texas?
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Storm Hunter
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URNT11 KNHC 152014
97779 20004 70174 78700 03700 99005 24238 /0004
49905
RMK AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 10
above pressure 1004mb?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Loc: Israel
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We have TD 24 per the site.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Storm Hunter
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that would mean recon reported a low level center..... vortex should be in within 20mins of posting on
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Oct 15 2005 08:48 PM)
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Storm Hunter
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well now i know
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N... 78.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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THE
CIRCULATION IS RATHER BROAD AND THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE COULD
BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 MILES FROM THE INITIAL POINT IN THE ADVISORY .
THIS IS COMMON IN DEVELOPING SYSTEMS. THE CYCLONE HAS NOT DEVELOPED
A TIGHT INNER CORE YET. DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOWS SO
FAR A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Quote:
well now i know
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N... 78.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB
yeah ...you really cannot have that kind of rotation on both vis/ir imagery without somekind of affirmation from p3... anyway, the 0z model runs will be really interesting now that this will (hopefully) be initialized better).
Edited by typhoon_tip (Sat Oct 15 2005 08:55 PM)
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Storm Hunter
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yeah the got there attention.... sounds like there are going with ships for time being....
"ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE COULD BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS."
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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the five day doesn't look good.....
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/204741.shtml?5day?large
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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yeah the got there attention.... sounds like there are going with ships for time being....
"ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE COULD BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS."
The issue here really is bureaucracy... They actually have guidelines surrounding what they are allowed to disseminate from to the public.
I can confirm this because a friend of mine is an on camera Meteorologist of certain local noteriety (for many years) here in easter New England, and he has elucidated this to me in the passed, that particularly during model runs over Nor'easters on the east coast sometimes NWS seems to almost be obtusely missing the boat. It's not that they are... It's really that they have rules that unless they are absolutely certain of elements requiring they do so, they are not supposed to over step...
It's no different for HPC - trust me. You probably already know this anyway... And, actually , it kind of makes good sense... Even though there is enough synoptic appeal to this thing to support a rapid and profound intensification scheme, the fact that only 1 model really depicts it is a smoking gun for needing more time...
Counter point, unfortunately, not likely.. It probably will be a smart event. As of 5pm we indeed have a broadly defined circulation center, inside of which lurks a 1004mb low and that is guidelines for upgrade. TD 24 has sprung to existence... (Amazing 24 named storm is almost a certainty and utterly incredible). Also, one thing I've noticed about system this year - actually, over the last decade for that matter - is that they invariably seem to stemwind up into a deeper more intense system than the officials initially estimate...
Now that TD-24 is defined, it will be interesting to see how the 0z model runs depict. I suspect you are going to see some intensity corroboration by the SHIPs model for starters; though likely shy of 150kts. May not be so in the global based models, however, because obvioulsy a 898mb core amid 150kt winds is just not something that fits inside the resolution of those models. However, I am virtually certain they will in the least have a better fix and a much deeper system out in time. We'll see.
In the meantime, the more I look at the synoptics for next week the more I am convinced that this system will likely not have a demise in the southern Gulf like the last... Which, unfortunately for our storm weary denizens of the Gulf States, the plausibility is on them. OUch.
Edited by typhoon_tip (Sat Oct 15 2005 09:08 PM)
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