Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I posted it 10 min ago and hugh got it just before me.
Discussion not out yet that I can find, I'm waiting to read it and then going to bed. I'm curious as to what they say, but I suspect it will be status quo, actually.
Edit: Well, the discussion is out now. Interesting tidbit:
As is often the case... however... the
models greatly disagree on how sharply will turn and how fast
it will move after recurvature. Most of the models are now much
faster after recurvature... but the new official forecast will only
be adjusted part of the way between the previous advisory and the
latest dynamical model consensus. Conditions appear conducive for
steady strengthening while remains in the northwestern
Caribbean Sea... and it still appears probable that will
become a major hurricane. Thereafter... increasing shear should
halt intensification and begin to induce gradual weakening... but
not enough to weaken beneath hurricane intensity within the
five-day time frame.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Tue Oct 18 2005 03:05 AM)
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Quote:
Quote:
I posted it 10 min ago and hugh got it just before me.
Discussion not out yet that I can find, I'm waiting to read it and then going to bed. I'm curious as to what they say, but I suspect it will be status quo, actually.
I get them e-mailed to me so I usually get them before they are posted. Scott posted it earlier I believe.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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what happened to the early and late cycle runs on http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/ have not updated all day i like those runs  and i hope they keep going more and more south.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
what happened to the early and late cycle runs on http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/ have not updated all day i like those runs and i hope they keep going more and more south.
Yeah, his site has a lot of nice info on it, but unfortunately it isn't updating.
Good thing he's not the only site out there!
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Which model has done the best thus far in the season. I thought I remembered reading that the had done the best job. Can anyone confirm this?
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Yes,I can.GDFL has been very good.Wow,How things change,the track does not look good for any part of Florida.And this looks to be a very big system.Looks like this season will go out with a bang for us in Florida.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Quote:
Yes,I can.GDFL has been very good.Wow,How things change,the track does not look good for any part of Florida.And this looks to be a very big system.Looks like this season will go out with a bang for us in Florida.
Unfortunately I think you are right. I wish this season was over all ready. The past couple of days have been just beautiful here with cooler dry air. I am keeping my eyes on this storm and hope it gets weaker and no one suffer too much.
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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So bob the GDFL tracks this storm closer to Tampa right? So why does everyone seem to think Miami and the Keys are more at risk? Any ideas?
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Well,you have to look at the trends.There is a dramatic shift to the east from this morning.All of Florida needs to watch this very closely.If this trend continues than south Florida is in the path of the eye(when it does form).Most of the models have it hitting Florida,the big question is where,and that is still uncertain.Just pay close attention from here on out.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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the reason is all the other models have it going there.The gdfl has been good but nowhere near perfect.It was off on having it going more south.
So when they say the GDFL has done good does not mean much as if this storm goes where the others sy the GDFL would still have done good as it had the turn.Plus the GDFL changes alot as it has for the past day.
It does good with how strong the storm is going to be this season also.
But i think and hope its wrong on the track as its a loner right now.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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No.the GDFL is not alone.Most models have it going over Florida,they just disagree on where.Most all have it curving NE.This will have an impact on Florida,how big and where the worse will hit is still a question.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Thanks ralph and bob also what do you think the intensity will be? Any idea. Do you think it will weaken before making landfall in Florida?
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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They are now saying that it will get to a 3.But coming into Florida as a 2.Remember they are better at the track than how how strong she will be.Stay tuned.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
So bob the GDFL tracks this storm closer to Tampa right? So why does everyone seem to think Miami and the Keys are more at risk? Any ideas?
Miami, the FL Keys and Anyone in the Right Front Quadrant will be exposed to 's rain, winds and Surge. Especially to the right of where she makes landfall.
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Thanks I am on the SE coast but I know I can be impacted by also. When and hit Miami area as a Cat 1 I got alot of strong wind gusts and torrential rain here. If this one is more intense at landfall I probably would have alot more to deal with and I want to make preparations early. Hubby works out of town so it will be up to me with the shutters and such if needed. I will just stay tuned , I know the path could change this far out.
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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The high pressure to it's west will break down and allow to turn to the north in about a couple of days, allowing for further strengthening to a CAT 4. Of course the path would indicate somewhere in the Gulf coast, but I ain't buying that scenario. Cliamatology speaking and trends over past hurricanes would indicate a strike on the west coast of FLA.
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Convergence
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 35
Loc: Ellicott City, Maryland
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My... there's a ton of convection blooming with the wave in the open Atlantic.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Based on everything at this point I am looking for a split down the middle. S of Fl and N Of Cuba, split the uprights. Look to 1933 for similar path and of course a significant decrease in intensity
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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It is rather obvious that is now sitting over a deep layer of warm water. I will not be surprise to see at hurricane status on the next update. It will only get worst. Those on the west coast of FLA need to really pay attention very closely. We have days of notices, but it wouldn't hurt to start now to prepare for the worst.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Dvorak numbers have increased from 2.8 at 0015Z.
To a 3.2 at 0445Z. Rate of increase seems to have slowed just a bit. From +0.1per hour, to +0.1 per 90 minutes at present.
0415Z, Mean cloud temperatures are at their lowest yet.
Eye region temps have warmed a few degrees from their lowest temp at 0245Z.
IR Satellite loop through 0445Z. Indicating attempting some consolidation of her convection.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir.gif
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