danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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This was purely speculation on my part. As we know that Tropical Cyclones don't travel in straight lines.
If were to follow a 336deg heading, for 96nm. She would hypothetically cross the beach at Cancun. Possibly just the western Eyewall.
This is all hypothetical and based on her previous motion~danielw
http://www.cancunmap.com/hurricane.html
Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 21 2005 08:34 AM)
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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From the 5 a.m. discussion:
This slow motion should continue to delay the recurvature toward Florida prolonging the agonizing wait . On the other hand...it gives time for the hurricane to weaken due to the effects of land and shear.
I guess they can't stand the waiting and continuous delays either. 
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 42
Loc: Pinellas County
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With the slow down in movement and a cold front coming into to Florida it looks like us in the St Pete/Tampa area can finally feel at ease.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Are you saying that a cold front will keep to the south enough to keep everyone out of danger? Will it also send to the Atlantic graveyard? Will it keep people from having to evacuate inland from the Gulf Coast? If so, can you explain why this is true? I need to know this because I am responsible for making sure my office is secure before I come home today.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Big Tk
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Tampa FL
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We might still get some squally weather late sat and sun but I think that will be about it. I believe tampa has dodged another Hurricane but time will tell.
Edited by Big Tk (Fri Oct 21 2005 09:41 AM)
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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The 09:15 UTC WV loop shows the eye clearing.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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We still have the BAMD and LBAR coming pretty close to Tampa:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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You may be ok, but I wouldn't start eating your nonperishables at this point. It's way too early to know.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I have been told by some one who seemed to know that the bam and LBAR were really only good at predicting winter weather type storms and not good at all with tropical storm style//
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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LOL! West Central Fl discussion pretty much sums it up,
"...SEEMS LIKE WE GET TO A DIFFERENT DAY BUT
HAVE THE SAME THINGS TO DISCUSS"
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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Quote:
I have been told by some one who seemed to know that the bam and LBAR were really only good at predicting winter weather type storms and not good at all with tropical storm style//
well they dont know what they are talking about. do a google on the bams and the LBAR and then go tell your friends what the real deal is and show them how much more you know about it then they do. Here is a start:
http://www.hurricanealley.net/hurmdls.htm
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Excuse me for stepping back in.
Apparently something or someone has the notion that part of the Florida Peninsula is No Longer In Any Danger.
I consulted the 5 Day Forecast Track Map, from the National Hurricane Center to see what everyone was talking about.
The only thing I see that has changed is the Timing of When Some Part of the Florida Peninsula has a Landfalling Hurricane.
Since the Cone of certainty extends from the Northern Yucatan Peninsula, across All of the Florida Peninsula, to the DelMarVa Peninsula and the Eastern Tip of Long Island, NY.
I would tend to think that there are a lot of anxious people just waiting to get in or on some form of transportation and Leave.
Forecaster Avila summed it up Very Nicely in his last paragraph of the 5 AM Discussion. I'll repost that paragraph here.
HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THERE IS PRACTICALLY NO CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BE MORE UNCERTAIN
THAN USUAL.
FORECASTER AVILA
And the Tampa NWS Office has added "West Central Florida" to the header of their Area Forecast Discussion.
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
355 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005
...ALL INTERESTS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SW FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR HURRICANE ...
They actually added " West Central Florida" to the text...24 hours ago.
We've been handed a grace period, if you will, to better prepare for a Hurricane. Please take this extra time and make Sure that You are ready to Leave. When ordered, asked or recommended to do so.
Once the wind speeds increase above 45 mph, Most, if not ALL Emergency Personnel will NOT Respond to your call for assistance. In some areas the wind speed cut off for Response may be 55 mph. But don't plan on that. Trees and powerlines can alter any of the Response Plans.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
And Emergency Management Agencies.~danielw
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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I am not sure how they plot the tropical forecast points in relation to time. I had assumed that these were plotted in relation to the advisory times, which are 08:00, 11:00, 14:00, 17:00...If this is the case, is not traveling faster than expected? Take alook at the following link and tell me if you think it is now over the 08:00 EDt expected point.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Tampa Hazardoius weather outlook:
MARINERS AND RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SHOULD KEEP UPDATED ON THE PROGRESS AND FORECASTS OF ...AS
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON
SUNDAY...AND HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINERS SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THIS WEEKEND.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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This is a great shot of 's Actual Size. The lower. thin clouds in the Western Gulf Of Mexico are slowly feeding into . They aren't high enough to be captured by the colorization algorhythms.
Single Frame
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/IR2/20.jpg
IR2 Loop...you can see a faint hint of a trough passing through Southern LA/ MS.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir2-loop.html
Main Page for SSD Products.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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The 0945z water vapor image shows some decay in the NW quadrant due to land interactions. The south quadrant, however, is more impressive. Cozumel radar shows the eye probably passing through the western edge of the Yucatan channel - not making landfall in my opinion. This small difference in motion could be HUGE... because it will mean won't weaken as much due to land interactions as if it made landfall. It doesn't mean Cancun and Cozumel won't be impacted. I believe they'll get the western eyewall, but not the break in conditions that the eye would bring.
Beyond 24 hours this thing is just unpredictable. I just looked again at the plots of the forecast... by Sunday... it is forecast to be moving so rapidly that it will make it all the way up to... due north of Cancun by it looks like 50 miles maybe. It's now SE of Cozumel. I don't know exactly but that looks like maybe 100 miles of movement in 2 days.
When - even if - it turns to the east... remains to be seen. If I were on the west coast of the peninsula... I wouldn't feel out of the woods, no matter where I was.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Fri Oct 21 2005 10:37 AM)
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jam
Registered User
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Posts: 4
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it seems noone is confident in when it will make that turn.any chance this storm could make landfall early.not trying to scare anyone is there a chance of a tampa evac saturday .i was just wondering because of traffic issues..any gestimate on timing.i dont know much about storm i have little experience from 2004
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Jam, There is a chance that might speed up. But I think it's a very small chance at this hour.
There is a trough-like feature moving into the NW GOM right now. Earlier Forecasts said that this trough would Not be strong enough to help in moving . We have to go with that Forecast...as they haven't changed it.
Pay close attention to the Weather Service and Local Emergency Management Officials. They will tell you what to do and when to do it.
If you feel like things are changing and you can't get enough local info. Then i would suggest you travel North a ways and try the Info there.
I hate to send someone on an unnecessary trip. But it's the safe route right now.
The 'trough' is currently between the TX Coast and the NW portion of 's Outflow south of Louisiana.
If anything is going to change we should know something by Noon or early afternoon. I'm not seeing a lot of amplitude in this trough. The Weather Service was indicating the possibility of a third trough moving in before anything changed drastically.
Back to more waiting for the Call.
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SMOKE
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 33
Loc: USA, Ga.
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Looking at the UA fcst maps .... westerlies will still impact the movement. Didn't think the TROF would reach that far south, at least overtly in it's amplitude.
Latest from : Storm Coords 20.4N 86.6W mvmt 330 at 5 knots.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I know that everyone is focused on the eye and the landfall or not on Florida, but my question is when to expect deteriorating conditions for Florida's West Central Coast from Sarasota to Cedar Key. Those who may have to evacuate will have to have a plan and be gone before that time due to the traffick, the slow movement of mass evacuation, and the possibility of car wrecks, gasoline runouts, and engine failures which happen routinely in rush hour traffic. Friday afternoons in Lakeland are excruciating and a 4 mile drive under normal conditions can take 20 minutes if the traffic lights are out of sequence or there is a slow moving vehicle ahead. The anxiety level from an evacuation is multiplied 2x the IQ of a turkey divided by the lack of enough evacuation routes ten to the one billionth power.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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