MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Hurricane is approaching the Yucatan Peninsula, if the current motion were to hold, Cancun would get the worst of the system. However, the chance exists that it will move to the east and stay off, keeping the very worst effects away from the land. You can see it approach on radar here.
It has slowed as expected, putting the forecasted Florida affects into Monday. There is still an enormous amount of uncertainty, even in the short term (Ie will it or will it not make full landfall (absolute center crossing land) or not, and if the western eyewall just graze, or avoid the Yucatan altogether. Reading the National Hurricane Center's discussion explains this in more detail why.
This impacts how strong it will be when it arrives in Florida, if the storm does not make landfall or even grazes the Yucatan with the eyewall then it will be a stronger system when it approaches Florida.
Although the Timing has changed, the direction of the forecast hasn't changede all that much and still suggests Southwest Florida. This will be a long next few days. The Florida impact may not really begin to be known until the system clears the Yucatan.
Intensity wise, it has held as a strong category 4 storm, and it will probably weaken some or fluctuate up and down. Weakening is most likely since it appears that the western side of the system is getting some dry air entrained into it. When it reaches the gulf it will likely encounter shear (and depending on how much interaction with the Yucatan it has) could get down to a category 2 system. The safe bet is to prepare for a possible landfalling category 3 hurricane along the southwest coast of Florida early next week and hope it is weaker. Listen to local media and officials in your area for exact information.
Additionally there is a wave in the Eastern Caribbean (99L) that may develop over the next few days.
Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.
(full size)
Image courtesy Weather.com Click here for full size image
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from the islands
Cancun Radar Animation (Flhurricane mirror)
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL
Lee County, FL
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.
Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is heading toward South Florida see some of his live streaming video and audio here
Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real )
Barometer Bob
WebCams
Royal Resorts Webcams in Cancun
The Royal Sands Animated WebCam (Flhurricane Mirrored)
Reply and let us know of other links.
Wilma
* NEW * Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of - Static Image
Wilma Microwave Imagery Animation
Floater Satellite with storm track overlays
Weather Underground Model Plots
cimss page
Wave 99L
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SMOKE
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 33
Loc: USA, Ga.
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Good compilation of information. Really like that animated model with the current location.
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
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well, i just measured out the distance from my area to the coast in sarasota. I am approximately 8 mi. from the coast (the inner coast, not siesta key). a little closer than i had previously thought. is this far enough from the coast that the hurricane will dissipate, say from a cat 4 to cat 2 before it hits me?
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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There is very clear dry air entrainment on the west side of the system now just outside the eye. I would be very surprised if the eye is not open west. This storm has probably peaked. Between interaction with land and the dry air now moving into the eyewall, I doubt we will see any strengthening before landfall or near miss.
WV loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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absolutely NOT...
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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That kind of disipation usually takes a couple hundred miles. 8 miles inland is close enough that with a storm surge the size of 's, you'd be flooded. 8 miles inland means the center of the eye is still offshore when the eyewall hits you.
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tpratch
Moderator
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Loc: Maryland
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Remember though, there is no guarantee that you'll see a Cat 4... yet.
What's your elevation above sea level?
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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
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Cat 4? 8 miles inland? don't think so in Florida anyway this is not NO... Anyway its moot as this system is almost a safe bet to not be a cat 4 let alone hit Sarasota anyway both are not likely at all.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
There is very clear dry air entrainment on the west side of the system now just outside the eye. I would be very surprised if the eye is not open west. This storm has probably peaked. Between interaction with land and the dry air now moving into the eyewall, I doubt we will see any strengthening before landfall or near miss.
WV loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
Well, considering that the storm is already starting to weaken - down to 145 at the 8am advisory - I think it's a safe bet to say we won't see strengthening before the greatest approach to the Yucatan coastline. The west eyewall appears to have dissintegrated in the last couple of hours as approached Cozumel. It will likely continue to weaken as the eye moves just east of the island and heads up toward Cancun. Current movement would put the center of the eye JUST east of Cancun - which would put a large portion of the eye over land and cause weakening i think. I expect we'll see around 130mph winds by the 2pm ET intermediate aadvisory. Having said that, the eye is completely cleared out now... so if it turns a bit further north and manages to stay offshore completely, it likely won't change in intensity. When it clears into the GOM... I don't see the shear that is supposed to be there...
It's going to be an interesting day to watch from afar. Hopefully the folks in Cancun and Cozumel are safe.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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No one can say Sarasota or even Tampa wont get hit directly cause its too early. We dont even know where she will be forsure in 12 hrs from now...she could stall right now as the trough as moved by,,or the slight ridging behind her might make her land on the tip of the Yuc,,near Cancun and drift inland, or just meander N or E towards western Cuba...we dont know...if it does continue NW and alittle more N into the Gulf, then Tampa chances might go up...or again it could do a loop and head E we dont know!!
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Although the 6 hour motion (1 hour old) is much closer to NNW, the 2 hour motion is almost right between NW and NNW. It's worth noting that due to the wobble at hour 5, the 4 hour trend is almost the same as the 6 hour trend.
I'll try and produce more of these as the day goes on, but it depends on my commitments. I have at least one client meeting today.
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Dougyd
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
Loc: Sanibel
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Funky,
The link below provides a storm surge map for your area. If you click on the small map, a full size map (using Acrobat) should provide you the information.
Doug
http://sptimes.com/2004/06/06/Hurricaneguide2004/Sarasota_County_shelt.shtml
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yecatsjg
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 26
Loc: Bradenton, FL
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THIS SLOW MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DELAY THE
RECURVATURE TOWARD FLORIDA PROLONGING THE AGONIZING WAIT.
Gee, I think the discussion is right on target...
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native
Weather Guru
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Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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tpratch - AWESOME graphics! For my own selfish sake, I hope your commitment load is low today as I'd like to see more of those!
I woke up this morning and was thinking you gotta be kidding me! Monday afternoon now! ARG...I'm going to be bald before she makes it to Florida. However, I'm sure I'm not the only one ripping my hair out over this....
FLAMOMMY - Hang in there!
They pushed the evac. of the Keys back again...I don't care, if I lived there, I'd leave today....anyone here ever been stuck going to or from the Keys even just on a holiday weekend??? NO FUN.
Does anyone know: If she doesn't landfall in the Yuc somewhere, is she still forecasted to hang around there still for 2 days? Just wondering.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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There's a new invest up:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/05102112
Not what we need right now is it!
Edited by emackl (Fri Oct 21 2005 12:52 PM)
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
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45 ft. above sea level. we are actually outside all flood zones here. also, i am officially in manatee county (s.r. 70 & i-75, just east of there)
Quote:
Remember though, there is no guarantee that you'll see a Cat 4... yet.
What's your elevation above sea level?
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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native
Weather Guru
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Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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Good God....somehow though with this already historic season....having a possible "Alpha" doesn't seem so far fetched huh?!
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HurricaneSteph
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
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Hi everyone......I am usually a "lurker" on these boards, but today I am speaking up, as I have a question! I am curious about the models. Why is it that I might look at one model display on one website and it is pretty different from, say, s model display? When I look at Skeet's, it shows 3 or 4 models putting through Central Florida. Another website shows only like 3 models even making it to Florida, the rest of them stop over the Yucatan. I know they vary from run to run, but considering all these runs are current (as of this AM) why is there a difference?
Thanks!!
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HurricaneSteph
Orlando
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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There are different types of models. The Globals are the ones which you should probably pay the most attention to. They are the newest models out there and therefore work off of more info than some of the others. I hear say that the LBAR, the three BAMM models etc are the older ones who dont do as well with all the info available. UKMET those 4 are the best IMO
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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speaking of the globals the new 06Z and are out
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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