scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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BTW with ,,everyone kept saying it was going thru tampa but I said for 2 days before it was going to bend right and make landfall in Sarasota county...I was off by 25 miles? not bad for 2 days out.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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I'm never wrong, I just wait till it makes landfall and edit and backdate LOL
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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engicedave
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I am talking about the moisture in Texas (1016mb) moving eastward.
As drifts more northerly, I believe that is what is going to initiate the turns and a eastern movement
IMO, going to pull her out of the hole, so to speak
but hey, I'm an idiot, what do I know?
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Rdietch
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Quote:
RDIETCH... And where do you think it will go??? south florida?? it could.. but I have only missed 2 storms this year and 1 by only 100 miles from 3 days out.,..so really 1 and last 2 years 2 times each. My forecasts are 2-3 days ahead of time. Not 24hrs or less what the gives. I have contacts and sources from all over, including the NWS in Tampa and the .... so if it gives ya confidence that Im wrong, then fine,, cause I could be wrong, I said we and I dont know forsure probably for 12 hrs more.
Was not saying you are wrong becuase how do i know where it is going? i mean the hurricane center only has a idea so i hvae no clue so i really don't have any idea where its going to go.I know where i would like it to go but im not a forcaster so ill leave it to them and if you really read my post i was jesting.Which means i was more or less saying it toung and cheek.It could come here as easy as Naples i just hope the latter 
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Scott I always read your posts. Even when you are wrong you are coherent. You are not ever so wrong that I can not take your ideas into consideration. I believe you are correct on this one because Central Florida Weather is always tricky this time of year. I think it is our distance from the equator that makes this so. In the dead of winter we can climb into the car and drive to Cross city change clothes from shorts and shirts to long pants and coats and the temperature difference can be 20 degrees or more different from where we started.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Lance Wilson
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
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Quote:
BTW with ,,everyone kept saying it was going thru tampa but I said for 2 days before it was going to bend right and make landfall in Sarasota county...I was off by 25 miles? not bad for 2 days out.
What is your call on this one? (I missed it somewhere along the way.)
Thanks to all, and I too like reading Colleen's posts.
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Nice reasoned forecast. May pan out & 12Z model does support your thinking.
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RJB
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efaulkSWFLA
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Fort Myers, Florida
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question... at its current pace, what N.2? How long before the entire COC is over water again? just curious.. Thanks...
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Ned
Weather Watcher
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Loc: W.Coast Fl.
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Scottsvb-
Been watching your takes since last 4last yr.You are very accurate.Iam still holding w/low hit into S.Fl from tue.nite.Thanks,learn a lot from you.
Ned
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I am talking about the moisture in Texas (1016mb) moving eastward.
As drifts more northerly, I believe that is what is going to initiate the turns and a eastern movement
IMO, going to pull her out of the hole, so to speak
but hey, I'm an idiot, what do I know?
You might be right, but I just think it will stay too far south for that to happen. Another trough is supposed to be stronger and dig down later though.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Addicted2Cane
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 13
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All I have to say is.... MOVE ALREADY!!!! ..... much more of this and everyone will be fighting,,,, WHHHHIIIIIIIILLLLLLLLMMMMMAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!! I have had about all the coffee I can take, no hair left she needs to get jiggy with it and do something.... Feces or get off the pot! 
Oh sorry everyone just venting it won't happen again.
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Where is the wind and rain...I NEED to sleep!!
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Heather
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Loc: Sebring, FL
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Don't know if this has been discussed or not, but with the current forecast track will be too close to Lake Okeechobee. I'm really concerned with my southern neighbors in Moore Haven, Clewiston, Belle Glade and Pahokee. Any thoughts on this?
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When it rains, it pours...
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Rdietch
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Quote:
All I have to say is.... MOVE ALREADY!!!! ..... much more of this and everyone will be fighting,,,, WHHHHIIIIIIIILLLLLLLLMMMMMAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!! I have had about all the coffee I can take, no hair left she needs to get jiggy with it and do something.... Feces or get off the pot!
Oh sorry everyone just venting it won't happen again.
Its kinda funny but i hope we argue till tomorrow with the storm over the Yucatan as that would mean its about done.I don't want harm to come to anyone so i don't forcast storms.I have ideas but i keep them to myself with that in mind the people in cancun im sorry you are taking more then your share at my expense.
But really till it turns NE nobody really knows much see ya guys and gals tonight later got to get meds refileed incase scott is right
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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000
FXUS62 KTBW 221810
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
207 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005
...WILMA AND THE END OF SUMMER ARE NOW ON THE WAY...
...ROUGH WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN HAVE THE SWEATERS
READY...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...WELL HERE WE GO. WAS SPINNING
SLOWLY ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN VERY NEAR CANCUN...
WEAKENED BUT STILL FORMIDABLE AS NOT TOO SURPRISINGLY THE STORM WAS
UNABLE TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO CAMPECHE PROVINCE BUT RATHER HAS
REMAINED NEAR THE COAST...AND LOWER TERRAIN...OF QUINTANA-ROO.
SOON...THE CYCLONE WILL EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND LIKELY
REGAIN CAT 3 STATUS FOR A SHORT WHILE BEFORE THE DEEP LAYER WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER AND BEGINS THE ACCELERATION PROCESS.
THE ACCELERATION WILL BEGIN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE HURRICANE
WILL RACE THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY MONDAY.
THERE IS GOOD AND BAD NEWS HERE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING FOR A SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LANDFALL. THE BAD NEWS IS THE
EXACT LANDFALL POINT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WHICH WOULD MAKE A HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN A VERY IMPORTANT HAZARD: STORM SURGE.
ON THE GOOD NEWS SIDE...FOR AREAS FROM SARASOTA COUNTY NORTHWARD
HAZARD THREATS ARE REDUCED: STORM SURGE AND TORNADOES. IN FACT...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TIDES WELL BELOW NORMAL IN
THESE AREAS. ALSO...THE EVENT WILL LAST NO MORE THAN 12 HOURS...
PROBABLY 6 HOURS GIVEN THE RAPID ACCELERATION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
OTHER GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH
SUNCOAST...THOUGH QUICK...WILL BE QUITE WELCOME.
NOW THE BAD NEWS. FIRST...WILMA WILL LINK WITH A STRONG
AUTUMN COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ENHANCE WINDS AND SEAS WELL NORTH OF
THE CENTER...WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS AND
BARRIER ISLAND BEACHES UP TO THE TAMPA BAY REGION. SO...FOR ALL
AREAS...EXPECT MINOR WIND DAMAGE RANGING FROM LOOSE ITEMS BLOWN
AROUND AND TWIGS/LEAVES OFF TREES TO PERHAPS MODERATE (OR MORE)
DAMAGE LEVELS CLOSER TO THE STORM AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
SHORELINES FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. DETAILS WILL BE SPELLED OUT IN A
LIKELY HURRICANE STATEMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WATCHES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HOISTED FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
COASTLINE.
OTHER POTENTIALLY BAD NEWS IS THE MOST RECENT 12Z RUN OF THE ...
WHICH IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS HAS BEEN VERY ACCURATE WITH
LANDFALL VERY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RUN
NOW BRINGS THE CENTER OF TO THE CHARLOTTE/SARASOTA COUNTY
LINE...ALL THE WHILE RACING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THOUGH FAR TOO
SOON TO BUY OFF ON A SINGLE MODEL RUN...THE FACT THAT ALL MODELS
FAILED YESTERDAY TO PICK UP ON THE PLAIN MOMENTUM OF THE STORM
TO CARRY IT ALONG THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN SHORELINE...ALONG WITH THE
GENERAL "LOOK" ON WATER VAPOR WHICH SHOWS THE MIDWESTERN U.S.
TROUGH ELONGATING TOWARD AN EAST-WEST POSITION NOW AND A CHANNEL THAT
SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO
THIS SOLUTION. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED
TORNADOES AND WORSE YET A TRUE "SURGE" OF WATER INTO LEE COUNTY
WOULD BE REALIZED. NOTE THAT THE SURGE WOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
A HIGHER HURRICANE CATEGORY GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE STORM AND
EXPANSION OF HIGH SEAS...COMBINED WITH ACCELERATION.
I hope that clarifies things for some people. Good News, Bad news it up to you to decide. Excellent discussion though, by real weather people.
Edited by Lake Toho - Kissimmee (Sat Oct 22 2005 06:54 PM)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Don't forget that the cold front will be pushing all of the available warm air over into the Gulf of Mexico which might enhance the intensity of the storm when it gets back over water completely. I know that the warm water is the source of energy and the waters near the western coast of Texas Mexico have had a few days to recuperate.I am not looking forward to that 30mph forward push even if it is only a depression by that time.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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ShelleyMcD
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 14
Loc: SRQ
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Quick Intro: Longtime Lurker, and Serious WxJunkie (I must have been born during a Tornado watch, because I've been watching ever since). Thanks to everyone who provides this board with real technical knowledge, as well as the reminders that this is as much an art as a science.
That said--
Tampa media ran their nifty "VIPIR"- and I know it's probably not designed for hurricane prediction, but I couldn't help but notice something. The has 's eye landfall slightly north of official track (not Naples like , somewhere around Ft Myers), HOWEVER, the big rain event appeared to be in the north-northeast quadrant of , along the I-4 corridor from Tampa, up through Orlando, even with moving thru at speed. I assume this has to be because of interaction between and the cold front? Anybody know if there are other models or forecasters who support this? The weathercaster really didn't seem to make any big deal of it, but it sure looked like there was a possibility of some localized flooding.
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Self-Confessed Control Freak
(I know I can't control what will happen, but I can control how much I understand about it!)
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 70
Loc:
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Hugh, In my non-professional (but somewhat experienced) opinion, that's the starter
That will get her moving, the initial pop-out and turns, the other trough will be the accelerator
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Well after looking over the data going to stick my head out and go with a landfall similar to what Scott said above. I am going to go somewhere around Sarasota county area (Sarasota-Venice). Been kind of sticking with this the last few days and dont see any reason to change for now (much depending of coarse on how far north it gets in the Gulf?). Well written discussion per Tampa NWS which explains the situation rather well., including the latest run which now has landfall near Sarasota/Charlotte county lines. has been somewhat consistent over the past day on landfall near Charlotte harbor, hanging on with landfall near the 's current forecast (Naples) and UKMET south of there in mainland Monroe county.
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Lance Wilson
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
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NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL STORM ALPHA (AL252005) ON 20051022 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051022 1800 051023 0600 051023 1800 051024 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.5N 68.5W 17.7N 70.8W 19.3N 72.9W 22.0N 74.5W
BAMM 16.5N 68.5W 18.0N 70.7W 19.7N 72.3W 22.4N 73.5W
A98E 16.5N 68.5W 18.1N 70.5W 19.4N 72.4W 21.3N 73.6W
LBAR 16.5N 68.5W 17.9N 70.3W 19.7N 71.9W 22.3N 73.2W
SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 51KTS
DSHP 35KTS 41KTS 33KTS 40KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051024 1800 051025 1800 051026 1800 051027 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.6N 74.4W 38.9N 64.8W 37.7N 40.3W 28.1N 37.8W
BAMM 26.9N 72.9W 39.1N 63.4W 39.8N 40.8W 30.2N 33.3W
A98E 26.0N 72.2W 34.2N 63.9W 38.6N 46.5W 30.4N 31.4W
LBAR 26.5N 72.8W 42.1N 57.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 54KTS 57KTS 57KTS 39KTS
DSHP 43KTS 46KTS 46KTS 29KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 68.5W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 15.4N LONM12 = 66.4W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 14.7N LONM24 = 63.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Thanks for posting that, Toho...I think it should clarify a lot of things for a lot of people. It will be an interesting 2 days, that's for sure!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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