funky
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WTVT met said he was confident of the ft.myers/naples track basically assuring all of tampa that they would have no hurricane winds.
i think that is quite silly at this moment, since it is only just come off the yucatan and is moving very slowly. but everyone gets to call it right? 
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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evergladesangler
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Still at Port Charlotte. OOZ has moved south to Everglades/Keys. Still quite a divergence. Anyone have 00Z ?
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danielw
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Please allow PMs in your personal settings.
If you offend, and we can't PM you about it.
We have no choice but to place you on Probation.
Sorry, I can't change your settings or send you mail.
One other request. We are getting too many Mod Alerts about one-liners. If you have a question about someone's post. PM THEM.
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If you constantly disagree with a person's post. Chose the "IGNORE " feature.
However, should this person post a Tornado Warning for your area...You Won't see it.
To quote an old TV ad. "Thank You for Your Support". 
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MikeC
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i think that is quite silly at this moment, since it is only just come off the yucatan and is moving very slowly. but everyone gets to call it right?
Actually, it's pretty solid. And the main reason why is the watches and warnings set like they are. The Hurricane warnings are done pretty well, and officially that means the more than the cone. Tampa most likely won't get hurricane Force winds. They may get tropical storm force winds. It would have been if they said that and the warnings were up for that area. But as it is, that is a solid and reasonable statement.
Apologies also for all the removed posts and drama on this site lately. Talking about the storm and tts affects is the purpose, not other posters. Some posts that have broken rules have gotten through, mainly because not everyone can be here 24/7, especially myself. But myself, Ed, John, Christine, Danny, Reddington, TPratch, and Hank as well as Clark (whos unfortunately not here this week) are watching when we can.
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Sneakbridge
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Loc: Highlands County, Florida
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That is good news indeed Toho, no 60 inches of rain here.
My enthusiasm is tempered, however, by the fact that 's winds will be augmented by her forward speed. So if theoretically she came in at a moderate intensity, say 100mph, but had a forward motion of 20 mph, folks could see winds in the range of a major hurricane. Also, a wider area of people would see these intense winds, and 's forward speed would mean that it would spend less time over land, thus the east coast would see winds higher than they would have if was a slow mover.
It is nice though that she'll get in, out, and we can get out with the cleanup. was excruciating last year because it kept people bottled up inside f o r e v e r.
If the hurricane is moving fwd at 20mph, for those to the north of the eye actually see less wind then they would have? In 's senerio, those to the north of the eye will get winds out of the west, and if that is going into a 20mph forward (NE) motion, I'd guess it will make it weaker...
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TampaDon
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Seems pretty premature to me as well. Has anyone noticed that the barometer is falling in Tampa while some are saying it is rising South of here?
Edited by TampaDon (Sun Oct 23 2005 03:50 AM)
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weatherwatcher2
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I live in Manatee County and just got back from Tampa about a half hour ago and it was 83 degrees in Tampa and very muggy. got home and its 78 and not as muggy.
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funky
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Seems pretty premature to me as well. Has anyone noticed that the barometer is falling in Tampa while some are saying it is rising South of here?
well tampadon, i think that means we have a battle ensuing right now between these two areas! sounds like the trough is trying to dig into northern tampa, which would explain the flareups over near the cape. so far so good, i think we might miss this one!
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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Thunderbird12
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I'm very surprised they didn't extend the hurricane warnings all the way up the East coast in the cone. I'm not a met but that seems illogical considering they are going to experience hurricane force winds. ??
Hurricane Warnings are for hurricane conditions within 36 hours. Since landfall is expected to occur in around 36 hours, the east coast would not be experiencing hurricane force winds at that time, just the west coast. Also, while the hurricane-force winds over water may extend a long ways from the center, they will not extend as far away from the center over land, so the center will need to be close to the east coast before hurricane-force winds would be expected there. That is not expected to happen until after 36 hours.
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funky
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Quote:
I live in Manatee County and just got back from Tampa about a half hour ago and it was 83 degrees in Tampa and very muggy. got home and its 78 and not as muggy.
i just checked the barometer again and it is currently 1008 and falling. we have picked up a breeze, which is probably why you felt the main difference. i can feel it already now, humidity is down to 87% already....
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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Joshua
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Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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Actually...
"A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS."
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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00Z still suggests landfall near Ft. Myers around 12Z on Monday. The has been further north of most of the other models in the last couple of runs, so keep that in mind:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_036l.gif
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scottsvb
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Loc: fl
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Forecast looks on track on how the trough is developing and digging down....I feel the models are on track in general on a FtMyers area landfall.....Ill stay with Sarasota or Charlotte county landfall...wouldnt be surprised if it was a tad south or north of there..... Anyways that is my landfall prediction and reasons why are obviously been told by many before including the , the strongest winds will be near and just right of the center but TS winds will be as far N as Tampa-Orlando and south into the keys. Heavy rains will be widespread up to the I4 cooridor from Tampa-Daytona with lighter amounts further N. Tornados will be wide spread especially in bands and near or se of the center.
Scottsvb
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Quote:
Actually...
"A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS."
Oops... you are correct. That is an even better explanation for why there are currently no warnings on the FL east coast.
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Joshua
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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"AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE."
Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 23 2005 04:34 AM)
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DeLandT
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Loc: Parrish, FL
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I am in northeast Sarasota County and the current conditions here are 77 degrees, 93% humidity and barometric pressure of 29.71 (1006) The pressure has been steady for the past hour or two but has been all over the place today.
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Tracey
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Michael, Very interesting link. I agree about the front. If the cold front is not schedueld to be here (Daytona area) until Tuesday, how is this storm going to keep it south of us on Monday. Also a little confused about the axis of this front. Will it not ride up the front?????
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Quote:
"AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE."
Aargh... I should have checked the warnings before answering the question... I thought all of the east coast was still under a watch. I should probably give up now. I would be very surprised, though, if there are any hurricane-force winds anywhere on the south or east coast within 24 hours.
Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 23 2005 04:37 AM)
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Joshua
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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Tracey,
Its a mix between the jet stream and the front. The jet stream will most likely steer it in the beginning, followed by extra acceleration due to the cold front.
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Joshua
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 43
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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Well, usually the hurricane center puts up warnings ahead of time so that people get their _ in gear with their preparation. It's a mental thing, where "OMG a hurricane warning? I better get things done!" Also, hurricane-force gusts can be felt in some of the squalls that will be coming through the east coast area Sunday evening.
strike two!
Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 23 2005 04:39 AM)
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