maddie
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Port Richey, Florida
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I have been away from the board for a while today getting my In-Laws ready for the storm....am trying to catch up with all of the info...In your opinions how strong do you think will be when she makes landfall?
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Joshua
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 43
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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maddie,
Of course, No one wants to uproot the 's position on the landfall. Right now they think it will be a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with winds of up to 114 MPH.
Also, in the latest discussion:
"WILMA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA AS A CATEGORY
HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT COULD HIT AS A
CATEGORY THREE."
Preparation for a 2-3 would be wise, depending on where you live. Always heed the advice of local officials, and keep it locked on your local radio/news program for more information on your area's effects from 
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saluki
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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Longtime lurker, first-time poster with what might be a dumb question: Which model runs go into which advisories? Is the 0000Z , for example, out in time to be factored into the 11 p.m. advisory?
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Movement is still eratic as her innermost eyewall tries to decide on staying or going.
Slightly north but mostly west of the last point, does not appear to want to do anything in a straight line.
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Joshua
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Polk City, FL
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Quote:
00Z still suggests landfall near Ft. Myers around 12Z on Monday. The has been further north of most of the other models in the last couple of runs, so keep that in mind:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_036l.gif
Actually no, the shows a Sarasota County landfall.
That's fairly far north of the consensus (but in line with my thinking).
Edited by Big Red Machine (Sun Oct 23 2005 04:29 AM)
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Polk City, FL
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Quote:
Movement is still eratic as her innermost eyewall tries to decide on staying or going.
Slightly north but mostly west of the last point, does not appear to want to do anything in a straight line.
Of course TP... after all that time in Cancun and Cozumel, who could walk in a straight line?  Jamaica... Cancun... Cozumel... S. FL (maybe)... looks like went on her Spring Break about 6 months too early. 
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Actually I hate to correct you, but I am not sure you are accurate in stating the 00Z is accounted for in the 11 PM forecast. I think its accounted for in the 5AM. 00Z does not usually finish compiling until after 11 PM
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Joshua
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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The early-cycle 00Z models (NOGAPS, , LBAR, BAMM, BAMD, etc.) are all accounted in the 11PM advisories. Late-cycle models are included in the 5AM advisory.
I don't believe this to be accurate. I am trying to validate this information~danielw
Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 23 2005 04:46 AM)
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maddie
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Port Richey, Florida
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Joshua- thank you , I have been tuned into all the local channels today , but of course you get different opinions on all of the channels as to where and how strong they anticipate the storm may be. Being the novice that I am , I get more informned information here on the board with all of you.......I think I speak for many of the "lurkers" here on the board , you guys just seem to make all of this easier to understand.....
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satellite steve
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Loc: Satellite Bch FL
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Although she is meandering a bit -- it looks like some of the dry air N and W in the GOM is starting to mix in some -- will be interesting to see if any strengthening of signifacance can occur with the dry air and the oncoming shear
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
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Joshua
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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maddie,
I understand completely. I try to stay away from the news channels around here except for the press conferences directly from the , because they like to hype it up way more/less than it actually is at times. Sometimes, they don't even know what they are talking about, or they are just blatantly mistaken.
Prepare for the worst, and hope for the best is what I always say. Your neighbors may laugh at you for putting up storm shutters, but hey, its better to be safe than sorry, correct?
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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I did not think or or were early cycle. However, with said I am always learning something new. Thanks for the input.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Joshua
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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Quote:
I did not think or or were early cycle. However, with said I am always learning something new. Thanks for the input.
I am not positive if the is early cycle, but I am positive that and are.
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Brian S
Registered User
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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This is a link that was posted here yesterday and it has some updated pics from the damage in what I believe is Cozumel. I wish everyone there the best and hope everyone in florida is prepared and stays safe.
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml
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pincty
Weather Watcher
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2 local mets in Tampa Bay stated on the late news that the front will be in place and have full confidence that it won't track into the Tampa area. D. Philips stated that he felt that the Ft. Myers track would be accurate to within 50 miles north or south of Ft. Myers. The Hurricane Update on the Weather Channel also showed the front pushing down. I believe we will be safe here in Pinellas County.
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Rdietch
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Quote:
Quote:
00Z still suggests landfall near Ft. Myers around 12Z on Monday. The has been further north of most of the other models in the last couple of runs, so keep that in mind:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_036l.gif
Actually no, the shows a Sarasota County landfall.
That's fairly far north of the consensus (but in line with my thinking).
Do you need a quote from the or Tampa on the ? its NOT Sarasota its at the border of Charoltte county need it posted? here is from the The 18Z is well to the
left...calling for a landfall near Charlotte Harbor...BTW 0z is exact same to the .01
Also Tws also has the at there also at 0z so please don't want to argue but Sarasota is wrong. thanks.
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evergladesangler
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Has moved south to around Marco Island. Other than , just about everything else is Marco-Keys. The way this thing is meandering and being encroached by the dry air from the west-northwest she might have trouble going north.
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maddie
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 15
Loc: Port Richey, Florida
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I'll tell you what frightens me so much ...last year we anticipated Charlie being a direct hit near us ....had all of the windows boarded , generator, supplies ...at the last moment I decided to move my kids to thier grandparents in Polk County , thinking they would be safer., not knowing that at the last minute it would shift and have a direct hit on the area we were staying in....a huge tree fell on the house trapping my kids in the room in the house they were in, for hours.....I do not think I will ever be confident of landfall until it actually happens ......
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satellite steve
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Loc: Satellite Bch FL
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As we all continue to speculate on tracks I have to note that the has been very consistent on the track crossing Florida from the Naples area across Lake Okachobee and exiting in the Fort Pierce/ Hutchinson Island area (Home of both and Jeanne in 2004)
Here is link to s spaghetti animation -- compare the track from 10/19 to Now -- pretty similar huh
http://flhurricane.com/sbanimator.php?24
Yabba Dabba Doo
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