engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
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Palm Beach Co., schools are closed monday (only).
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sara33
Weather Guru
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Loc: St. Pete,
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For those of us in Pinellas County...
Do you think that the affects will be similar to & Jeanne last year?
Better or worse?
Any thoughts would be appreciated 
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evergladesangler
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http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFDL_18z/ghmloop.html
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/index_p06_m_loop.shtml
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Even if the storm hits Orlando, no real reason to evacuate, unless you are in a poorly constructed building or in a mobile home. Might want to clear the possible missles outside. Otherwise, best to just get some food. maybe some candles and rid her out at home. That is my plan down here in Poincianna, unless I have to go to work.
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Jim
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Lee-Delray
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I'm amazed how many of my neighbors aren't taking this seriously. I live in a development of 76 homes and maybe 20 +/- of us put shutters up. I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but why don't people take this serious? 
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Lee-Delray
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At least when we loose power, it will be cool.
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Rasvar
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Kind of an aside, almost seems like TBW and MLB have a slight difference of opinion. Would have thought Polk would have an inland hurricane watch since Orange and Osceola do. Even the experts seem to be unsure on this one. MLB might be a little extra cautious or believe the models more. no real idea on why there is a difference. Granted, MLB's discussions have been a bit more cautious the last few times. So there is no surprise on this to me.
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Jim
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Twistergal
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Loc: Great Plains
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Following is the latest information from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center regarding the potential for severe weather over the next couple of days in FL. Maybe this will give folks a little bit of clarity on the chances for severe thunderstorms, tornados, etc., in the Sunshine State. You can find info for the Day 1 and Day 2 outlooks at the following URL's:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
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Toto, we're still in Kansas!
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FireAng85
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Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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It is very sobering to me that this hurricane is going to landfall about 250 miles south of me and they are forecasting 50 mph sustained winds with hurricane force gusts....... I'm getting worried. If it inches north even just a little bit, I don't even want to think about that........
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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efaulkSWFLA
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Fort Myers, Florida
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For the "inexperienced" what is a good loop to refer to when you want to get an accurate update of the satellite? Everytime I want to get an update, I alway looks at a different type of image..lol
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Polk City, FL
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Whoa... 18Z slides the storm further north. Inland @ Sarasota or so, then NE through Orlando.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_042.shtml
If this verifies, yours truly would've nailed this.... not that anyone cares... or that it's particularly germaine to the conversation. Might as well pat myself on the back while I can though. 
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age234
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Loc: Winter Park
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Quote:
Even if the storm hits Orlando, no real reason to evacuate, unless you are in a poorly constructed building or in a mobile home. Might want to clear the possible missles outside. Otherwise, best to just get some food. maybe some candles and rid her out at home. That is my plan down here in Poincianna, unless I have to go to work.
Thanks for the tips, I'll pass them along. So do you think that, if she stays on the current track, the power would even go out in greater Orlando? The only hurricane I've been in was Jeanne, and the power didn't even flicker around here. What do you think will be like in comparison with Jeanne?
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Big Red Machine
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Loc: Polk City, FL
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Depends where you are in WP. All of those old trees and high winds don't mix well. Can really wreak havoc on the power grid.
I used to live in the UCF area of east orange (not WP but close). Last year with I was out for 2 weeks.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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*pat*
Looking at this WV loop, the first short wave has passed with the second short wave dropping from South Dakota.
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Michael
PWS
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Ronn
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Loc: Seminole, FL
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Quote:
For those of us in Pinellas County...
Do you think that the affects will be similar to & Jeanne last year?
Better or worse?
I do not believe that will be as bad for Pinellas County as or Jeanne was, unless the storm moves farther north than expected. As of now, we are probably looking at tropical storm force gusts (45-55mph), but nothing more. If you recall, Jeanne and both generated a strong onshore NW wind on the Pinellas coast that--because of unimpeded flow over the Gulf--gave us sustained TS winds with some hurricane force gusts during Jeanne on the immediate coast. When is at its closest, our winds will be from the east over land, thus we will not get a severe "backlash" on the coast. This, coupled with the fact that we will be on the weaker northern side of the storm, will probably result in only sustained winds around 30-35 mph with gusts to TS force. Of course, we still should be preparing for a direct hit , because we are still within the cone of uncertainty. Most likely, however, will come in a bit south of us...how far south remains to be seen.
Edited by Ronn (Sat Oct 22 2005 10:18 PM)
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sara33
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Loc: St. Pete,
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Thanks Ronn 
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FireAng85
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Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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Wow, in Lake County, Sorrento to be exact, we lost our roof and were without power for a week! Jeanne was harder on us than any of them!
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Put these in your favorites
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
Edited by Tazmanian93 (Sat Oct 22 2005 10:17 PM)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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My personal thinking is that she will be between Jeanne and in Orlando. Closer to Jeanne and not anywhere near . Given a year of regrowth, probably more powerfailures then Jeanne. No massive grid destruction, though. Maybe some 2-3 day outages at worst. That is based on current forecast.
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Jim
Edited by Rasvar (Sat Oct 22 2005 10:19 PM)
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Rdietch
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Quote:
Whoa... 18Z slides the storm further north. Inland @ Sarasota or so, then NE through Orlando.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_042.shtml
If this verifies, yours truly would've nailed this.... not that anyone cares... or that it's particularly germaine to the conversation. Might as well pat myself on the back while I can though.
About the same as the 12Z the has been the north outliner all day today so until it gets new data it will stay there im sure.
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