vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Quote:
Wow - that water vapor is awesome!
amazing pic indeed.
Is there any website which would give stormtrack & landfall projections for laymen like me who cannot figure that out on their own?
When this one hits Florida, what kind of action should we expect? Like a regular (sub-hurricane) named storm?
Thanks/
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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allan
Weather Master
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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Looks like the dry air is either weakening or just not reaching the center anymore.. now is the time to watch for "possible" tropical characteristics as conditions appear favorable right now.. very slight chance but I hope.. not only would it be a good record storm, but it would help me over here on the fire situation. I live in Flagler County and I hear evacuations may be going on.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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just gonna call it that since ssd has tagged it as such. i can't access fnmoc, so don't know if those guys have an invest up on it. would have the same number anyway.
right now the low appears much better defined than earlier today, a bit more secluded from the frontal structure, but still an frontal low. there is spotty convection near the secluding portion. still a big sweep of mid-level dry air and cold air stratocumulus involved in the center. what i'm betting is that is the center gets closer to the gulfstream SSTs (running in the upper 70s) and secludes a bit more, enough deep convection will form to get the started on it. at least everybody here will be hollering about it. whatever they choose to go with, i'm sure plenty of folks will gripe about their call on its classification--as usual.
deep layer lows this strong over borderline tropical SSTs at the fringes of the season develop often enough for this big boy to merit attention. the fact that it's blowing aplenty in coastal waters and kicking the surf around is doing that all by itself. something i was a little nervous about personally was what the wildfires in south georgia would do under the conditions west of the gale. judging from the smoke plume it looks like the one near racepond, georgia really took off today. fire danger is pretty serious for today and tomorrow at least.
HF 2257z07may
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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
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Two points:
1. Philips is kind of hoping, based on the Titan model they use, that this thing crosses Florida and goes into the GOM to increase rain chances for us later in the week. We'll see.
2. Radar data along with Sat. data is picking up on the two plums of smoke (one in Georgia and one in northern Florida). No doubt being fueled by the dry conditions and windy conditions.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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I'm either getting extremely good at forecasting offseason tropical development, or very paranoid. I looked at the radar online last night/early this morning (can't remember whether it was before I went to bed or when I got up) and thought "uh, that looks like a tropical low". Tonight, I read a headline on Drudge that links to an article saying it could move into the GOM and develop into a tropical low.
I'm not a pro when it comes to tropical systems, and I never follow Nor'easters - is there any historical precidence for a cold-core storm that has been referred to as a Nor'easter in May to move southwest across Florida like some of the models are forecasting for this thing? Isn't that what the Stom of the Century did? We drove through some nasty weather yesterday coming back from Biloxi (obviously unrelated to this thing), which has temporarily provided some relief for the drought. I was foolishly hoping for a repeat of the 2006 Atlantic season.
Edit: HankFrank... SSD page now shows "Test Floater - Subtropical System", but I don't see a "Gale 90L" referenced anywhere. has no floaters for the Atlantic basin (yet anyway).
Edited by Hugh (Tue May 08 2007 12:31 AM)
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dem05
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Well, if anyone is itchy to throw down some plots on a tracking map, this one is a bit more worthy of May mongering this evening. I really don't think there is much doubt that this is removing itself from the fronts this evening based on satellite representation. I find it noteworthy that the thunderstorms have been diminishing on the perifery while the cloud tops are gradually growing taller around center over the last few hours. This system is gradually consolidating into a more sub-tropical looking system. Also, banding type features have also improved. On final thoughts, I'd be surprised to see very intense "high altitude" thunderstorms develop around this system. In my experince of tracking subtropical systems and/or tropicalcyclones that develop under these circumstances, they usually have shallow thunderstorm activity. This has been an interesting May.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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just a note about fires... there were two widefires that popped up today in NW Florida.. one near Freeport, FL.. and one on Panama City Beach, the winds may them spread like crazy... one over 1,000 acres in a few hours. We need this low to get over to the coast and help throw in some mositure, but i don't think its going to survive that long... if the gulf stream was a little bit warmer up the florida/Ga/SC... i be more hopeful... one thing is for sure... its going to be windy along the SE for another few days. I like to see the 00Z runs tonight...
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Excerpt from the afternoon Marine Wx Discussion for the NW Atlantic.
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EDT MON 7 MAY 2007 (edited~danielw)
.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.
THE MAJOR STORM NEAR THE SE CORNER OF THE NT2 WTRS IS BCMG VERT STACKED AND BASED ON DVLPMT OF CNVTN ARND W SIDE AND CONFERRING WITH HPC AGREE ON HAVING THIS LOW MAINTAIN CURRENT STRENGTH THRU 36 HR AS IT MOVS SW THEN DRFTS W JUST S OF 31N TOWARD GLF STRM...RATHER THAN SLOWLY FILLING IT AS IN AND OTHER MDLS.
WILL KEEP INTSTY 6-8 MB DEEPER THAN THRU TUE AND PERHAPS SVRL MB THRFTR AND MAY REQUIRE SLGT UPWARD ADJ OF WNDS. AND OTHER MDLS EXCP 00Z UKMET DO NOT INITIALIZE LOW DEEP ENUF.
BASICALLY GOING WITH TRACK WHICH AGREES WELL WITH /UKMET 00Z RUNS...TAKING LOW INTO N FL THU WITH SLOW FILLING AFT TUE BUT NOT AS FAST FILLING AS IN ...MORE LIKE STRENGTH BY THU. THERE IT STALLS AND WKNS THRU SAT.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WNM/MIMATN
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obxadventurers
Registered User
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Posts: 1
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Live from the Outer Banks!!!! Wild!!! Ya need to be here!!! I came to Ocracoke for a leisurely vacation and found a freakin' storm instead!!! The bar is dropping and the water is risin' . Just another n'oreaster...live it or live with it! At least, that's what they keep tellin' me! We've chosen to live it. It's cold...it's windy. Many people stranded becasue the ferry systems have been suspended until the Coast Guard can clear passage of channels. Temps in the 50's. Highway 12 is washed out.
More to follow...if God is willing.
Joyce Marie Taylor-Author & Poet
www.joycemarietaylor.com
Edited by danielw (Tue May 08 2007 02:08 AM)
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dem05
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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NWS Frontal observations are now showing that the front has seperated from the core of our low that we are watching.
GoTo: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-ir2.html
Be Sure To Click "NWS Fronts" On The Menu Above The Loop
P.S. Also note that the remaining front on the perimiter is occluded
Edited by dem05 (Tue May 08 2007 02:25 AM)
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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
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Quote:
just a note about fires... there were two widefires that popped up today in NW Florida.. one near Freeport, FL.. and one on Panama City Beach, the winds may them spread like crazy... one over 1,000 acres in a few hours. We need this low to get over to the coast and help throw in some mositure, but i don't think its going to survive that long... if the gulf stream was a little bit warmer up the florida/Ga/SC... i be more hopeful... one thing is for sure... its going to be windy along the SE for another few days. I like to see the 00Z runs tonight...
I was listening to a radio station out of Ocala tonight and they were talking about evacuations in those areas due to the fires and rapid spread of them.
So from that standpoint let this thing get over there and provide some rain for those folks.
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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We need this thing to hurry up and move inland . We have 2 fires now and the one around Panama City has already burned over 1k acers . Wind is not what we need since we are in the middle of a drought . I have read some post on other message boards and was wondering if there is any chance that this thing gets into the GOM and brings us a good soaking .
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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The one on Panama City Beach, i was out there just right after it started to flare up... Talk about some flames... 50ft high... it was a sight. And that North, DRY wind was fuel for trouble! I just saw that the latest SAT number.. still holding at 2.5
07/2345 UTC 30.9N 74.7W ST2.5/2.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean
I am curious what this low will do when it gets closer to the coast/gulf stream.. Wonder if there will be any storms flare up on the west side... There is so much dry air there, its amazing its appears to me that it might be getting better looking on sats. Haven't seen any invest on it from the NAVY... i would think that NOAA would send a flight out there tomorrow or wednesday, maybe as a test flight or so.... get some good data before the season really gets agoing, and its so close to land.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue May 08 2007 02:54 AM)
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PutnamGator
Registered User
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Posts: 5
Loc: Putnam County, FL
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There are also fires very close to me in Bradford and Alachua Counties. They started today, both have burned over 2500 acres each, and they expect them to merge overnight. The wind from this thing definitely is not helping us here.
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Quote:
There are also fires very close to me in Bradford and Alachua Counties. They started today, both have burned over 2500 acres each, and they expect them to merge overnight. The wind from this thing definitely is not helping us here.
Not to get off the topic, but if you haven't found this site, it is a cool place to follow fires and their smoke trails once you figure out how to use it....
SSD Fire Detection Program
Try it!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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more globals showing the thing secluding and developing a warm vertical profile. it's fitting the earlier phase space diagrams that showed it going symmetric warm core. there's a bit more convection, mostly in a loose semicircle maybe 75-150 miles north and west of the center, sporadic elsewhere.
sucker will be going over near threshold SSTs tomorrow. with the existing cold pool aloft it isn't very hard to see this thing transitioning. i don't know how far it will make it towards becoming subtropical, but if the low starts working like a semi-tropical system and tapping non-baroclinic energy sources, all bets are off on the models showing it washing out wed-thu.
HF 0506z08may
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
more globals showing the thing secluding and developing a warm vertical profile. it's fitting the earlier phase space diagrams that showed it going symmetric warm core. there's a bit more convection, mostly in a loose semicircle maybe 75-150 miles north and west of the center, sporadic elsewhere.
sucker will be going over near threshold SSTs tomorrow. with the existing cold pool aloft it isn't very hard to see this thing transitioning. i don't know how far it will make it towards becoming subtropical, but if the low starts working like a semi-tropical system and tapping non-baroclinic energy sources, all bets are off on the models showing it washing out wed-thu.
HF 0506z08may
I'm glad I'm not the new director of the , because this thing is looking more and more like a duck the closer it gets to the coast. Don't know what the wind field looks like currently, but the AVN loop makes it a tough call I imagine. It looks to me like should pull the trigger today, but with the system moving rapidly toward Jacksonville, I'm betting they won't pulled it for about 7 months (in the post-season analysis). Fortunately it does not look to be moving as far southward as it once was so I don't know if it will be able to get into the GOM.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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allan
Weather Master
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Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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NHC is'nt paying attention to it right now but The Weather Channel now calls it a Subtropical Storm and said that there are big changes with it coming. I say it should be good enough to be called Andrea.Don't understand why the Navy has not been paying attention to this.. hopefully we wont have a confusing year like 2006. Andrea by tonight?? Anyone? Feedback would be cool. 
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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rookie
Unregistered
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 081046
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 08 2007
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W 2N51W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG
ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
14W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ACTIVITY IS FROM 4S-3N
BETWEEN 27W-42W.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN OCCLUDED 1001 MB SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 76.5W AT
08/0900 UTC...OR ABOUT 250NM E OF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA
BORDER...MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. A STORM WARNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS IN AFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE AREA N OF 29N W
OF 76W BUT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX TO GALE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WAS VERIFIED BY LAST EVENINGS QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH
SHOWED 50-60 KT WINDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THESE WINDS ARE
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT FOR THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND THE BAHAMAS. BUOY 41010 HAS BEEN
REPORTING 20-25 FT SEAS AT 16 SEC OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE REGIONAL WW3 MODEL NOW SEEMS ON TRACK WITH THE HEIGHTS BUT
CONTINUES TO UNDERESTIMATE THE PERIODS WHICH WILL FURTHER ADD TO
THE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS UPON SHOALING. LIGHTNING DATA HAS BEEN
DEPICTING SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE MODERATE CONVECTION SEEN WITHIN
150NM N AND W OF THE CENTER. THE MAIN THREAT...HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGH WINDS AND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO CONTINUE MOVING THE LOW
TOWARDS NORTH FLORIDA/GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE
SLOWLY WEAKENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS
REGARDING EXPECTED OFFSHORE AND COASTAL IMPACTS.
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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
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May have recon tomorrow.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 081330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 08 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z 10/1100Z MAY 2007
WSPOD NUMBER.....07-001
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE AREA OFF SOUTH CAROLINA
A. 09/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 09/0930Z
D. 31.8N 79.4W
E. 09/1100Z-09/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE
WVW
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