MikeC
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Yes the ULL and ridge situation is playing havoc with the models. This is likely going to make the long range models fairly useless for the next few days (Even moreso than usual). This is why I think the entire gulf needs to watch this system. And I don't just mean the Western Gulf of Mexico, either. To quote Frank P from this site, "Stress levels among the coast will be extremely high this weekend.." Model flip flops won't help.
Being calm and not overreacting is the better course, watching what the system does. Note, that just because it is forecast to be a very strong hurricane in the Gulf does not mean it will be so at landfall, many times some unforseen weakness in the system happens before landfall too. Being aware is fine, but don't stress out over these things.
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DaViking
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Loc: Crystal River, FL
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Deans eye is starting to become visible on satellite. Could have 115+ on next advisory
Visible loop
Edited by DaViking (Fri Aug 17 2007 03:32 PM)
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
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Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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I was looking on weatherunderground earlier and they have a graphic showing cat. 1 and 2 hurricanes in Aug. dating back since 1886 or something that have been within 300 miles of the track that Dean is on and NONE of them have ever made landfall on the upper Texas coast. In fact, only ONE had even made landfall in Texas period and that was far south Texas. History does serve well as far as keeping Dean away from us here in the Houston area...THANK GOD!
Shawn
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NewWatcher
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Mike I completely agree... Dean is quickly catdhing the ULL over the Bahamas. This storm is a "wait and see" much more than usual.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Looks to me like there are 3 impacting Texas historically:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_climo.html?MR=1
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
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I see that now but that is not the same graphic they had up yesterday. The one they had yesterday was totally different...I swear...lol. Well, that makes me even more concerned now. I wish these models would somehow show Dean totally falling apart but I guess that just seems to be wishful thinking on my part. Unfortunately, it looks like we are in for a very rough ride with this one. I hope EVERYONE pays attention and takes the precautions needed...don't wait until it's too late. I agree...this one could still go just about anywhere at this point.
Shawn
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anomaly18
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Loc: Galveston, TX
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Being here on the upper Texas coast, I can say that it will be an intriguing weekend. The steering currents aren't leading me to believe there will be any short term change to the models.
This is my first post. I have been reading posts for the past few years on flhurricane. I appreciate the level of expertise on this board. Thanks.
Edited by anomaly18 (Fri Aug 17 2007 04:28 PM)
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OUSHAWN
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Unfortunately, Dean is looking better (or worse...depending on how you look at it) on satellite. The eye is certainly visible and the outflow is pretty awesome.
Shawn
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Clark
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Bunch of questions to get to...
1) model data -- it mostly looks like it's a combination of a lot of stuff happening on our computers plus millions from the web hitting it, causing the slowdown. The PSU site isn't as well known and is on a dedicated web machine that is better able to handle the workload. That said, I still highly recommend our site. 
2) Beach -- regarding the upper and lower level winds -- no, those upper level features draw their energy from completely different processes, all mostly confined to the upper levels of the atmosphere. Kraig had a good response regarding the daily variation of the surface winds in those areas.
3) Regarding location of the G-IV dropsondes -- I don't have a map available, but they were all in the general vicinity of the storm, particularly just to the north and west. They did not sample the upper low over the Bahamas; it's too far from the storm. Accordingly, most of the G-IV's impacts are found within the first couple of days of the model forecasts.
And a tad bit of analysis...
Latest recon suggests flight level winds are up to about 115kt with surface winds just a tick under 100kt/115mph. They've also reported concentric eyewalls, potentially suggesting that the storm is peaking for the time being. I wouldn't be surprised to see it upgraded to a major hurricane at the next advisory. I can't remember the last time I saw a 130kt projection from the at the 3-4 day time frame; they are usually loathe to go to near cat. 5 intensity that far out. Still, it's a quite reasonable forecast I'm afraid. A potential disaster scenario is being spit out by some of the models, having Dean mostly avoid all of the major landmasses in the Caribbean and sliding through the Yucatan channel on a course for Texas. That's more of the outlier course right now, as a track over the northern Yucatan is more likely, but one we'll closely watch for the next few days.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Clark, If I may.... What is the outcome if Dean catches up with the ULL over the Bahamas... that ULL started to move and then now seems stuck again?
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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MissouriHurricane2008
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Loc: Missouri, USA
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 Ive been looking at the different computer models and for some reason i agree with those that will take the storm on a more northly track. If i was texas and louisana i would watch this storm more closely. dean looks like he means business. i am still not sure on alot of the technical terms that some of you use but i am very interested in learning them. so if anyone has a link that could help me understand some of the more technical talk that would be much appriecated. just drop me a message. thanks!
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Clark
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Hi Pam,
If Dean gets close to the upper low, a few things could happen. The upper low could start to evacuate some of Dean's outflow, a scenario that would help intensify the storm. This is more likely if the storm remains some distance away from the upper level feature. If it draws closer, it could impart a bit of wind shear on top of Dean, helping keep its intensity in check. It could also impart a bit more of a northward movement to Dean, something the computer models are showing for down the line -- but in the Gulf.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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weatherguy08
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Loc: Miami, Fla.
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Seems that a lot of attention is being made towards climatology and historical tracks. While there are some storm tracks that are historically similar to Dean, we need to remember, and I may be stating the obvious, that historical storms have no affect on which way the storm will go, just speculation.
Anyway, I am sitting here in Louisiana watching this storm, somewhat anxious/nervous. But what is interesting me is how far to the east the brings Dean, and as a category four or five. If this comes true or something similar to it, Galveston, Houston, Beaumont, and southwestern Louisiana are going to be in for quite a rough ride. My prediction is basically anywhere from the Mississippi-Alabama border (though this is likely to far east) and westwards.
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Texas Cane Tracker
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Loc: Tomball, TX
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If the ULL is able to weaken the central U.S. ridge enought to give Dean more of a NW track, what would the first signs of this be (other than the course of Dean itself)?
Latest satellite presentation looks very impressive, with a clearly defined eye. Outflow looks good as well, and alot of moisture being sucked into the storm from the south.
Here in Houston, we are definitely keeping a close eye on Dean. Many thanks to all of those on this site who provide us with great information and frequent updates.
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Storm Hunter
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Wow... very nice eye showing up now on sats.... been some time since we have seen this in the atlantic. now we can watch for eyewall replacements and any hot towers that form... which would indicate rapid growing and strengthening.... I think that Jamica may be in trouble down the road... I don't know if the island can escape a direct hit, like they have with other systems... its going to be very close... and i guess i better fill up with gas now... i bet next week we hear stories about the gas prices going to rise....
some of the models keeps showing that tropical wave in the atlantic trying to sneak up the north side of the islands in the coming days then up the east coast... very weak... and it seems that in the long term, the atlantic ridge may weaken some?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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scottsvb
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First 60 hrs or so the models are converging on a Jamaica or just north of Jamaica. Alot has been said of the interaction with Hisapiola and even Cuba down the road. Also the speed of the upper low moving across the gulf. Clark pretty much said what could happen. Most us agree for the first 48-60 hrs the path with the models. After that...we are unsure exactly if there will be a WNW component still or if the upper low gets drawn fast enough westerward for a bend more W till it nears the Yucitan. 1 thing I been noticing is the upper ridge drifted W towards eastern Tx last night into today. That might want to not have a pull on the upper low so quick to the west. Right now uncertainties.
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EMSDoc1
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I seem to recall over the last 3 seasons of following storms with y'all that someone had said that none of the spaghetti models account for the fact that a Cat 4/5 storm will tend to drift more north and east because they are powerful enough to generate their own steering winds. This would mean that every subsequent track on a big, powerful storm would be further northeast. Did I imagine this? Perhaps I need a "hurricane meteorology for dummies" course!
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scottsvb
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Loc: fl
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Stronger systems will create more heat into a ridge to its North..BUT if there is a strong trough (cold front) coming in....it wont matter how strong the hurricane is. It will be pulled N then NE. Alot of the talk on Cat 4-5s doing what they want is novice speculation. All they do is enhance the ridge to its N but against a typical front...it will be drawn up and the ridge slides E.
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MikeC
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The newest run takes Dean in barely west of New Orleans, not a pretty trend at all. I think the models are reacting to the new input and the Upper Level Low a bit too much, and will remain vulnerable.
Dean may do something unexpected, so nobody should be letting their guard down yet.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Around 30 minutes ago, recon recorded flight-level winds of 116 knots and 104 knots at the surface with the SFMR. That should lead to another bump in the intensity on the next advisory, probably to 100 or 105 knots (cat 3).
While the 12Z seemed to come in a little further south, the 12Z has made another shift to the north and east. Here are the lat/lon coords from the 12Z :
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGQLM
While Dean will likely be a major threat anywhere it hits, that track would be a particularly bad one. The is still an outlier, but it is adding some drama to the track forecast.
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