SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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I agree, from past experience, models are pretty good about 3 days out. After that, who knows? Weather patterns change.
I just hope whereever Dean goes that he doesn't pack the punch he does right now.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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The 2pm advisory is out, and now says:
Dean is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...
It is no longer considered a wobble. Winds remain 150mph, which indicates that the has not impacted the strength, yet.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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thanks for the clarification. I guess I am being extra-paranoid (-: which in my case is no little feat :-) because I have to travel from New Smyrna Beach where I live to Miami and back all in one day next Wed. and the last thing I want is spend 8-10 hours or more on I-95 if there is a possible hurricane event anywhere in Florida.
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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Nathan
Verified CFHC User
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Pardon the new guy for speaking up. From what I understand if that TUT low starts to move west before that high gets
here that Texas could possibly be in the track. However if it and the high pressure create a wedge, then the Texas coast would once again be spared. I do agree with the previous posts, that while all the model data does point towards Northern Mexico or Southern Texas, it is still to early to tell, a lot can happen in 24 hours much less 36-48. I have seen the model do some interesting things over the past 24 hours, one of which being New Orleans, but for now at least it looks to be in agreement with the others. Guess we will see.
Nathan
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weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Miami, Fla.
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I cannot really see Dean coming as far east as Louisiana. But, I could see Dean coming relatively far to the east, say Galveston, which would give at least some of the western portions of Louisiana such as Lafayette, Lake Charles, and maybe Baton Rouge as well as areas south some tropical storm conditions. Honestly, as much as models and the forecast have been moving, and the fact that generally speaking the forecast is to far to the left, I don't put a whole lot of stock in either the official forecast or the models at this point. We will probably have a better idea Sunday evening or Monday morning.
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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 42
Loc: Pinellas County
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I am on the west coast of Florida and realize that there is nothing concerning to this area with Dean. But I have talked to several people around here today and it amazes me that 95% of them are not even checking in to see what is going on with Dean. I am really concerned that people in the Tampa Bay area will someday have a big one coming at them and not take it seriously. I get laughed at a lot but I moved here from Destin and learned to never take anything for granted......went to bed one night woke up to Erin a month later went to bed woke up to Opal.
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Nathan
Verified CFHC User
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With a lot of the 12 Zulu model data being out, I am noticing them start to spread out a little more loosely than they have been for most of the day, the few creeper tracks are moving back up the Texas coastline. I think Texans are being serious but not over serious about this, our signs on the freeway say "Major Hurricane near Gulf, Keep your Gas Tanks Full". Which is interesting seeing that it is still a long way off.
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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I think Texans are for the most part good about paying attention to the storms.
While Dean looks like he is headed for Mexico at this point
there is still a possibility he could hit south Texas. Depending on the size of the storm (I am thinking of Carla) he could
affect much of the Texas coast if he makes landfall anywhere in Texas.
Rita taught many in Texas a valuable lesson. It is pretty easy to be prepared-just stock up on food, water, batteries, etc., keep
tanks full, etc. Then there is no rushing around at the last minute.
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bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: New Hampshire
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It's pretty easy to get a complacency measure for any particular location. Just check when the last major to hit was.
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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Pinellas County
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I think it was 1921 but still did people on the Gulf Coast not learn anything from ?
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Nathan
Verified CFHC User
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I understand the complacency factor, its been a while since Galveston experienced a direct hit, as was forecast at one point to hit Galveston straight on- thats when everyone fled, and created a freeway nightmare. I think we are more vigilant now, but so many people will not evacuate due to what happened two years ago. Our plan is in place, we just have to wait until Sunday/Monday.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Right now the Hurricane Center's track is right on, and I think they are doing a great job. The most likely landfall points on the mainland are in Northern Mexico, or Southern Texas.
Other areas in the Gulf still need to watch until the storm is west of your longitude, but chances are very low at the moment it would do anything there.
The more northerly motion that I was looking for today to really change that line of thinking never happened. And I'm not seeing anything right now that would lead me to change that either.
Do you have your own take on what Dean will do? Let us know here. In that area you are free to go with gut feelings and suggestions. We're going to start moving posts like that there to try to keep confusion (and the amount of emails we get) down.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
The more northerly motion that I was looking for today to really change that line of thinking never happened. And I'm not seeing anything right now that would lead me to change that either.
I don't mean to be argumentative, Mike, but what kind of more northerly motion were you looking for? Dean is now moving west-northwest, rather than west. They don't give the exactly angle of motion in the public advisories, but I assume it's an increase in northward component from the 290 degrees at 11am. Granted on this heading Dean will still likely skim the Yucatan, but only skim it, and there's a certain degree of logic that says once a turn poleward begins, it's possible for it to continue.
I guess I'm just wondering what you were looking for today to really change that line of thinking?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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I was looking for a larger deviation from the track, we had one this morning, but since then we haven't.
The break I was looking for with the ULL this morning is backing off now.
Another example, See the graphic on the main page right now. I'm just finding more reason's to go with the westerly track out there now than I am anything else--this could change, but how it would I couldn't tell you. I just think the 's cone is about right with everything else I've been seeing so far.
If this changes I'll be sure to let everyone know.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Hugh, the recon positions are almost dead on the projected track.
See: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Hugh, the recon positions are almost dead on the projected track.
I'm not sure what your point is. I'm not denying that. I'm simply pointing out that it would be extremely unusual for a storm to continue on a direct, straight line for five days.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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hmm... i think the EWRC is almost over now... latest sats are showing a VERY NICE eye coming out... I think Dean's about to make a run up in strength again. I know the sun is going down, but looks like to me the eye is clearing out and a better stadium effect is showing up.
Vis
**also its pretty cool to see those small vortices are back inside the eye... ** which from what i learned from a NASA study... its a sign of very well structued system...
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Aug 18 2007 08:36 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
hmm... i think the EWRC is almost over now... latest sats are showing a VERY NICE eye coming out... I think Dean's about to make a run up in strength again. I know the sun is going down, but looks like to me the eye is clearing out and a better stadium effect is showing up.
The cloud tops are not as high as they could be, and the eye is a bit ragged, but... the symmetry of this hurricane is extremely impressive, and the eye appears to be completely cloud free now.
5pm advisory is out, with absolutely no changes to intensity or forecast to speak of. I'm not sure what the recon status is, but it would surprise me for the pressure to not start plummeting at any time now, and the winds to really go up in a hurry - and yes, I'm aware that they're already at 150.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Nathan
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 10
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I think so too and I quote the latest :
WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
SHEAR AND VERY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND YUCATAN...SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. IN
FACT...DEAN COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE AT ANY TIME BEFORE IT REACHES YUCATAN.
Such colorful words as catastrophic. I also like how they agree with the consensus of the models, however they throw in their disclaimer:
THERE
COULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE HAS HAD A VERY
RELIABLE TRACK RECORD.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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I expected the 5pm to not reflect any changes... because there's been no plane out there for a few hours... Last report from recon in the center had the multiple eyewalls.... but looking at all available sats i have.. this systems is very impressive right now... I do think Jamica is in for some bad trouble though... Its not going to be nice to the island!
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Aug 18 2007 08:42 PM)
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